Feb 5, 2020 - Economy & Business

S&P predicts coronavirus will stabilize by April

The novel coronavirus outbreak has continued its global rampage, but experts are beginning to see signs of improvement in detection and treatment on the horizon.

Driving the news: S&P Global announced Tuesday it expects the crisis will "stabilize globally in April 2020, with virtually no new transmissions in May. Our worst-case projection holds that the virus stops spreading in late May, and optimistically in March."

  • "Growth should stabilize later in 2020 and recover through early 2021 as the temporary effect on activity wanes."
  • "Relief measures including tax cuts and subsidies are likely. "

Yes, but: S&P analysts caution "if the disease is not swiftly brought under control, slower economic growth would exacerbate already weaker fiscal performance in many parts of the Asia-Pacific."

  • "Risk aversion and tighter financial conditions could amplify the impact, including on investment."

The big picture: Sectors impacted by the outbreak include banking, property, gaming, hotels, retail, tourism and transport.

Don't sleep: Expectations for the outbreak's peak have already been moved back. Zhong Nanshan, who leads the special committee of China's State Committee on Health and is the epidemiologist who discovered the SARS coronavirus in 2003, predicted in January that coronavirus cases would hit their peak within 10 to 14 days of the initial outbreak.

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Coronavirus cases rise as 14 American evacuees infected

Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins, the CDC, and China's NHC; Note: China refers to mainland China and the Diamond Princess is the cruise ship offshore Yokohama, Japan. Map: Danielle Alberti/Axios

14 Americans evacuated from the Diamond Princess cruise ship tested positive for the novel coronavirus before being flown in a "specialist containment" on a plane repatriating U.S. citizens back home, the U.S. government said early Monday.

The big picture: COVID-19 has now killed at least 1,775 people and infected more than 70,000 others. Most cases and all but five of the deaths have occurred in mainland China.

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Coronavirus scare could hurt stocks, oil and everything else

People in Shenzhen, China, waiting at a train station on Jan. 22. Photo: Costfoto/Barcroft Media via Getty Images

The U.S. and Hong Kong both announced the first confirmed cases of coronavirus, and China's National Health Commission said the death toll from the virus has risen to nine, with 440 confirmed cases across 13 provinces.

Why it matters: "There's no question that economic activity in Asia will be affected as we head into one of the busiest travel weeks in China," BK Asset Management managing director of FX strategy Kathy Lien wrote in a note to clients late Tuesday.

Go deeperArrowJan 22, 2020

Coronavirus global death toll surpasses SARS

A medical staff member walks past Wuhan Central Hospital in China on Friday. Photo: Costfoto/Barcroft Media via Getty Images

The novel coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, has now killed more people than the 2003 SARS outbreak, the latest health figures show.

What's happening: Health authorities in China's Hubei province, the epicenter of the outbreak, reported 81 new deaths from the virus on Saturday — taking the toll in the region to 780. China's National Health Commission confirmed later Saturday that a total of 811 people have died of coronavirus in the country.

Go deeperArrowFeb 9, 2020 - Health