Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on the day's biggest business stories

Subscribe to Axios Closer for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Stay on top of the latest market trends

Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sign up for Axios NW Arkansas

Stay up-to-date on the most important and interesting stories affecting NW Arkansas, authored by local reporters

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Some experts are skeptical that space will become a trillion-dollar industry, and a bubble may already be forming in the current space economy.

The billionaires tend to steal the space show. But behind them are about 40 other rocket companies looking to capture — and build more demand for —the market to launch small satellites and other payloads.

The big picture: People love rockets. They’ve inspired billionaires to enter the space industry and are obviously necessary for launching satellites and any vision of humans living and working off the Earth. But launching rockets isn't how people currently make money in space — that's largely satellites for national security and people watching TV.

Between the lines: Today, small satellites piggyback on rockets whose primary mission is putting larger payloads into orbit. An argument for small launchers — those that can carry up to 500 kg into low-Earth orbit — is that they can provide on-demand service to customers.

  • But the price per kilogram to launch with a small rocket is 5-10X greater, says Carissa Christensen, founder of aerospace consultancy Bryce Space and Technology. "That is a big premium to pay for schedule control."

Details:

  • Rocket Lab, Vector and Virgin Orbit are the current frontrunners in the race.
  • Other companies are in earlier stages of design and development and are trying to breakthrough and distinguish themselves.
  • Stofiel Aerospace, for example, is developing 3D-printed rockets to match customers' payload needs — and then return them to Earth, which they say is attractive for companies looking to experiment with manufacturing in space.
  • The U.S. military is also interested in on-demand launches — DARPA is holding a challenge to develop the capability to launch satellites on short notice.

What to watch: Industry experts tell Axios there is a bubble in the small-launch market and they expect consolidation among the companies in the next few years.

  • “There will be about three small launch vehicles to bring a product to market,” says Peter Beck, the CEO of Rocket Lab which has conducted two launches and aims to put 16 more satellites up next year. “The reality is the barriers to creating the service are extreme.”
  • So far, just a handful of small vehicle companies are licensed by the FAA to launch for profit.
  • “There are certainly niche opportunities for those vehicles. But the number of vehicles in development compared to demand is wildly out of sync,” says Christensen.
  • Bryce estimates $536 million have been invested in small launchers but that is based on published data from just a handful of the contenders.
  • On the demand side, the FAA forecasts the launch of 1,753 satellites — about 75% of which will be small —in the next 5 years. But each won't go on its own rocket and experts say it's unclear the demand will be sustained.
  • "It is incumbent on everyone — operators and investors — that we aren’t overfunding and over hyping," says venture capitalist Sunil Nagaraj.

The bottom line: Comparing the current small-launch landscape to the dot com bubble, Christensen says, "That kind of disruptive uncertainty is in no way incompatible with an industry that transforms to new and broader capabilities."

Go deeper

Updated 2 hours ago - World

Trudeau's Liberals set to form minority government after Canada election win

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Photo: Jeff Vinnick/Getty Images

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal government was reelected for a third term in Monday's parliamentary elections, but preliminary results show it failed to win a majority.

Why it matters: Trudeau has governed Canada with a minority of legislative support in parliament for the past two years. Last month, he called for an election two years earlier than scheduled in the hope of forming a majority government.

DOJ urges Supreme Court not to overturn Roe v Wade

Attorney General Merrick Garland during a Sept. 9 news conference at the Department of Justice in Washington, D.C. Photo: Samuel Corum/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Department of Justice sought permission Monday to present oral arguments when the Supreme Court hears a case challenging Mississippi's strict abortion law, as it called on justices to uphold Roe v. Wade.

Why it matters: The two briefs, filed by acting solicitor general Brian Fletcher, mark the latest attempt by President Biden's DOJ to "protect the legal right to an abortion," per the New York Times, which first reported on the court filings.

4 hours ago - World

Reports: CIA director's team member reported Havana Syndrome symptoms

Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) director Bill Burns during a House Intelligence Committee hearing in April on Capitol Hill. Photo: Al Drago-Pool/Getty Images

A member of CIA director Bill Burns' team who traveled with him to India this month was treated for "symptoms consistent with Havana syndrome," CNN first reported Monday.

Why it matters: Current and former officials told the New York Times the incident signals a "possible escalation" in the mysterious neurological symptoms affecting as many as 200 Americans who've worked in overseas posts since 2016.