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Data: Axios Research, Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

While Republicans are giddy about their chances for regaining the House next year, GOP prospects for taking the Senate remain more uncertain, data reviewed by Axios suggests.

By the numbers: At least five Republican senators are retiring after the midterms, and four of their seats are in battleground states. That makes a simple Republican-for-Republican election exchange all the more difficult.

  • All told, 20 Republican seats are among the one-third of the Senate up for reelection.
  • Meanwhile, none of the 14 Democratic senators up for reelection has announced retirement plans.
  • Four of their seats — in Georgia, New Hampshire, Arizona and Nevada — are being targeted by the GOP.

How it works: Axios has used a headshot to chart every candidate whose state was decided in the 2020 presidential election by 15 points or less.

Go deeper

Aug 15, 2021 - Politics & Policy

McCarthy’s silent treatment

Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy has been maintaining a deliberate silence about how his caucus should approach the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill.

Why it matters: It passed the Senate last week with the support of 19 Republicans, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). But it faces an uncertain future in the House, with even Democrats divided over what they want.

Two hot House races

Lauren Underwood (left) and Lucy McBath. Photos: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call (left), Alex Edelman/Pool/Getty Images

Democrats are prioritizing two competitive House seats held by Black women in their party — Reps. Lauren Underwood in Illinois and Lucy McBath in Georgia — as new census data shows how demographic shifts are shaping the midterms.

Why it matters: Each of these swing districts covers a majority white area that Republicans are eager to take back. Elections experts predict both districts could change dramatically — but in different ways — because of the 2020 count.

Updated 1 hour ago - Science

Volcanic eruption in Tonga caused "significant" damage

This satellite image of the eruption on Jan. 15 taken by Himawari-8, a Japanese weather satellite operated by Japan Meteorological Agency and released by National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT). Photo: NICT via AP

Significant damage has been reported in Tonga following an undersea volcanic eruption on Saturday, which covered the Pacific nation in ash and cut off communication lines.

Driving the news: The eruption triggered tsunami warnings across Tonga's islands and in other regions, including the West Coast of the U.S. and New Zealand.