Photo: Samuel Corum/Getty Images

Polls increasingly point to Democrats winning the Senate.

Why it matters: Republicans had been optimistic about holding on to the Senate even if President Trump lost. But they know they could be swamped by a blue wave.

Arizona, once a toss-up, leans Democrat.

  • And there’s a new poll in Iowa with Republican Sen. Joni Ernst down 3 points, which is within the margin of error.

Context: Cook Political Report rates six seats as toss-ups, all held by Republicans: Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Montana and North Carolina.

  • As a seat that's trending their way, Republicans point to Sen. Thom Tillis (N.C.), saying he bested challenger Cal Cunningham last week in their first televised debate.

The bottom line: Almost every competitive race looks shaky for Republicans.

  • And Democrats are raising gobs of money after the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
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