Updated Mar 20, 2018

Woman's death pushes self-driving much further away

Uber's self-driving fleet, 2016. Photo: Angelo Merendino / AFP / Getty

Carmakers and tech companies are likely to considerably delay their rollout of fuller autonomous driving after the death of a pedestrian who was run over by a self-driven Uber, said Barclays analyst Brian Johnson.

What they're saying: In a note to clients, Johnson said the late Sunday night accident in Arizona shows that, while carmakers may be 90% or even 95% of the way to optimizing autonomous technology, "it’s the last 5-10% which is the toughest to achieve."

What may undergo a rethink: The industry has been in a self-driving development frenzy. A number of automakers already sell vehicles rated at "Level 2," which means hands-on autonomous functionality. And all of them are in a rush to get to Level 5, which makes steering wheels and pedals unnecessary:

  • Last week, GM said its self-driving Cruise AV, without a steering wheel or pedals, will go into production next year. It will not be for individual car-owners, but for ride-sharing, to be operated in fleets in states such as Arizona and California. (GM did not respond to a request for comment. Johnson thinks that the company may slow down this rollout.)
  • But generally speaking, 2021 is — at least as of the time of the Uber accident — the year of the self-driving car: Volvo has said it will have Level 4 autonomy by 2021. So did Ford. VW and Hyundai say they may even reach Level 5.
  • Waymo, Google's self-driving unit, has tested its technology by far the most of any company, and may at the same time be the most conservative about the decision to launch commercially. Last month, Waymo received approval to operate a self-driving ride-hailing service in Arizona, but it has not announced when that will begin.

Tesla's Elon Musk may be the most bullish maker of self-driving technology. In an earnings call last month, Musk said a Tesla would do a self-driven, cross-country U.S. run by July, and that he would make the capability available to customers at an unspecified later date.

  • Tesla did not respond to an email asking about any delay. But, again, Johnson suggested that, at the least, Musk's plans would face pushback. "The [Uber] news reinforces that conservatism may be the right approach — leading some to question Tesla," Johnson said.

Self-driving experts are urging renewed contemplation of when fully autonomous cars go on the road. Raj Rajkumar, head of the self-driving car lab at Carnegie Mellon University, suggested that success can make some autonomous teams complacent. "Just because the vehicle drove itself fine for the past 10 miles does not mean that it can deal with all the conditions it will encounter during the next 10 miles," he told Axios in an email. 

"Computers and humans are fundamentally different in how we learn and do things. If a human driver can handle a mix of situations on the road, one can imagine that person doing the reasonable/right thing in (almost) all other conditions.  This is how we license human drivers. Unfortunately, this is NOT true for computers which are programmed to do certain things. Situations that they are not programmed for will not be handled by computers. Hence, the need for human operators who must step in as needed for now."
— Raj Rajkumar

Go deeper

Trump sees "sooner rather than later" return of pro sports

Photo: Sarah Silbiger/Getty Images

President Trump predicted yesterday that the Republican National Convention will open as scheduled in Charlotte on Aug. 24 — "We have no contingency plan" — setting a new bar for a phased return to business in America.

The big picture: With the virus peak for New York projected as Thursday, and for the nation as April 15 (a week from Wednesday), Trump continued trying to leaven dire warnings with a sunny streak.

Pope Francis delivers Palm Sunday sermon to empty St. Peter’s Basilica

Photo: Alberto Pizzoli/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

Pope Francis called on listeners in his Palm Sunday sermon — on the first day of Holy Week — to "reach out to those who are suffering and those most in need" during the coronavirus pandemic, Reuters reports.

Why it matters: Francis delivered his message inside an empty St. Peter’s Basilica, broadcasting it over the internet to churches around the world.

Go deeperArrow36 mins ago - World

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 7:30 a.m. ET: 1,213,927 — Total deaths: 65,652 — Total recoveries: 252,391Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 7:30 a.m. ET: 312,245 — Total deaths: 8,503 — Total recoveries: 15,021Map.
  3. Public health latest: CDC launches national trackers and recommends face coverings in public. Federal government will cover costs of COVID-19 treatment for uninsured. The virus is hitting poor, minority communities harder and upending childbirth.
  4. 2020 latest: "We have no contingency plan," Trump said on the 2020 Republican National Convention. "We're having the convention at the end of August."
  5. Business updates: Restaurants step up for health care workers. Employees are pressuring companies to provide protections during coronavirus.
  6. Oil latest: Monday meeting among oil-producing countries to discuss supply curbs is reportedly being delayed amid tensions between Saudi Arabia and Russia.
  7. Education update: Many college-age students won't get coronavirus relief checks.
  8. 1 🏀 thing: The WNBA postpones start of training camps and season.
  9. What should I do? Pets, moving and personal health. Answers about the virus from Axios expertsWhat to know about social distancingQ&A: Minimizing your coronavirus risk.
  10. Other resources: CDC on how to avoid the virus, what to do if you get it.

Subscribe to Mike Allen's Axios AM to follow our coronavirus coverage each morning from your inbox.