Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with the Axios AM and PM newsletters. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on the day's biggest business stories

Subscribe to the Axios Closer newsletter for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sign up for Axios Pro Rata

Dive into the world of dealmakers across VC, PE and M&A with Axios Pro Rata. Delivered daily to your inbox by Dan Primack and Kia Kokalitcheva.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with the Axios Sports newsletter. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Des Moines newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Tampa Bay newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Nashville news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Nashville newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Columbus news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Columbus newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Dallas news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Dallas newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Austin news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Austin newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Atlanta news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Atlanta newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Philadelphia news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Philadelphia newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Chicago news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Chicago newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sign up for Axios NW Arkansas

Stay up-to-date on the most important and interesting stories affecting NW Arkansas, authored by local reporters

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top DC news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios DC newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sen. Joe Manchin. Photo: Kent Nishimura/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) has privately warned the White House and congressional leaders that he has specific policy concerns with President Biden's $3.5 trillion social spending dream — and he'll support as little as $1 trillion of it.

  • At most, he's open to supporting $1.5 trillion, sources familiar with the discussions say.

Why it matters: In a 50-50 Senate, that could mean the ceiling for Biden's "Build Back Better" agenda — and that many progressive priorities, from universal preschool to free community college, are in danger of dying this Congress.

  • Manchin also has committed to paying for any new spending with new revenue, which will limit the ultimate size of any final package.
  • This amount would be on top of a $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure deal passed by the Senate and awaiting House action.

Between the lines: Underlying Manchin’s concerns with Democrats' $3.5 trillion budget proposal, which originated in Sen. Bernie Sanders' budget committee, are deep and substantive differences over the size and scope of specific programs.

  • Manchin has voiced concerns about Biden’s plan to spend $400 billion for home caregivers.
  • He's also talking about means testing on other key proposals, including extending the enhanced Child Tax Credit, which provides up to an additional $300 per child per month, free community college, universal preschool and child care tax credits.
  • And he’s skeptical that so-called dynamic scoring — which Democrats embraced as a way to offset some costs of hard infrastructure spending — can be applied to “human” or “soft” infrastructure proposals.
  • For years, Republicans have relied on dynamic scoring to argue that tax cuts can pay for themselves in the long run, by growing the economy and therefore increasing revenues.

The big picture: House and Senate committees have until Sept. 15 to write specific legislation on how to spend up to $3.5 trillion — while also finding $1.5 trillion in new revenue from corporations and the wealthiest Americans — to enact Biden’s agenda.

  • Manchin threw cold water on the process last week with a Wall Street Journal op-ed, where he argued for a "strategic pause," citing inflation and the need to preserve some fiscal headspace to respond to COVID-19, if the virus continues to rampage.
  • House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has promised House centrists a vote on the separate $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure package by Sept. 27.
  • Biden, speaking at the White House Tuesday evening, said, "Joe at the end has always been there."
  • "He's always been with me. I think we can work something out. I look forward to speaking with him."

Flashback: During the negotiations for the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, Manchin helped force Biden into lowering the amount of unemployment assistance and into raising the income limits on who would receive $1,400 direct payment checks.

What we're hearing: The White House still appears optimistic that a deal can be reached.

  • Manchin was careful in his WSJ piece not to close the door to future negotiations.
  • "Sanders wanted a large number and Manchin wants a smaller number and we’re going to work this process to try to reach common ground," said one source familiar with the White House's thinking. "There is a wide spectrum of opinions in the Democratic caucuses, and plenty of negotiation will take place. But we will continue to get this done, finding common ground."

Editor's note: This post has been updated to include comments from President Biden.

Go deeper

Dec 17, 2021 - Politics & Policy

Democrats fail to deliver year-end Build Back Better deal

Sen. Joe Manchin walking through the Capitol basement on Wednesday. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

Senate Democrats will conclude the year without delivering on President Biden's top priority: his $1.75 trillion Build Back Better agenda.

Why it matters: As predictable as that outcome may have been, it still has consequences for the party. Beyond the political ramifications of failing to meet a promised deadline, the chief concern is that dragging out negotiations will result in a smaller package during a midterm year — or no package at all.

Top Senate Dem "frustrated and disappointed" by Manchin

Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) told reporters on Thursday that he is "stunned" by Sen. Joe Manchin's (D-W.Va.) opposition to a one-year extension of the child tax credit included in the Build Back Better deal.

What he's saying: Durbin said he was "frustrated and disappointed" because it seems unlikely that the legislation will be headed to President Biden's desk soon. "We missed an opportunity, but I'm not giving up."

Biden leans on Air Force One sounding board

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

As he travels the country, President Biden is tapping an unofficial group of advisers to help hone his message: the lawmakers flying with him aboard Air Force One.

Why it matters: Previewing his remarks to mostly Democratic lawmakers in the conference room of the iconic aircraft, Biden's found a way to catch up on the kinds of in-person interactions and instant feedback that COVID-era precautions have greatly curtailed on the ground in Washington.