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Photo: Omar Chatriwala/Getty Images

A series of new polling and fundraising numbers show an uphill battle for several of 2020's most vulnerable Republican Senate seats, the National Journal reports.

The big picture: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's hold on the chamber has been an impenetrable barrier when it comes to blocking Democratic legislation passed in the House, with McConnell proudly referring to himself this year as the "Grim Reaper" for progressive policies. Even if a Democrat defeats President Trump in 2020, the party still needs to flip at least three Republican Senate seats in order to pass any significant legislation like the Green New Deal or Medicare for All.

By the numbers: Q3 fundraising reports show four Republican senators were outraised by their Democratic competitors, including three that hail from key battleground states Iowa, Maine and Arizona.

  • Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) failed to hit $1 million in funding, while a Democratic challenger, Theresa Greenfield, raised $1.1 million.
  • Sen. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) has been outraised in all three quarters, and her cash-on-hand trails Democratic challenger Mark Kelly by nearly $4 million.
  • Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) was outpaced by over $1 million, with Democrat Sara Gideon, the speaker of the Maine House, raising $3.2 million.

Between the lines: Some of these vulnerable Republican senators are facing ugly favorability ratings as well.

  • Collins currently has a 49% disapproval rating, the second worst in the country behind McConnell, according to Morning Consult. Ernst comes in at fourth worst, with a 43% disapproval rating.

The bottom line: "In a normal political environment, Republicans would have good reason to be confident they could win some of these hotly contested races," National Journal's Josh Kraushaar writes. "But given the trajectory of Trump’s presidency and the trend lines in the battlegrounds, Republicans don’t have much room for error."

Go deeper: 2020 candidates' Q3 fundraising hauls

Go deeper

Wall Street braces for more turbulence ahead of Election Day

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

Wall Street is digging in for a potentially rocky period as Election Day gets closer.

Why it matters: Investors are facing a "three-headed monster," Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, tells Axios — a worsening pandemic, an economic stimulus package in limbo, and an imminent election.

Dave Lawler, author of World
4 hours ago - World

How Biden might tackle the Iran deal

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Four more years of President Trump would almost certainly kill the Iran nuclear deal — but the election of Joe Biden wouldn’t necessarily save it.

The big picture: Rescuing the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is near the top of Biden's foreign policy priority list. He says he'd re-enter the deal once Iran returns to compliance, and use it as the basis on which to negotiate a broader and longer-lasting deal with Iran.

Kamala Harris, the new left's insider

Photo illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios. Photo: Joe Buglewicz/Getty Images     

Progressive leaders see Sen. Kamala Harris, if she's elected vice president, as their conduit to a post-Biden Democratic Party where the power will be in younger, more diverse and more liberal hands.

  • Why it matters: The party's rising left sees Harris as the best hope for penetrating Joe Biden's older, largely white inner circle.

If Biden wins, Harris will become the first woman, first Black American and first Indian American to serve as a U.S. vice president — and would instantly be seen as the first in line for the presidency should Biden decide against seeking a second term.

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