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Expand chart
Data: U.S. Census Bureau; Chart: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

The single biggest threat to Republicans' long-term viability is demographics.

The big picture: The numbers simply do not lie. America, as a whole, and swing states, in particular, are growing more diverse, more quickly. There is no way Republicans can change birth rates or curb this trend — and there's not a single demographic megatrend that favors Republicans.

Why it matters: President Trump’s short-term calculation to stir up white voters with race-baiting rhetoric might very well echo for a generation.

About last night: Trump paused while speaking at a "Make America Great Again" campaign rally in Greenville, N.C., to savor supporters' new roar: "Send her back!"

  • "I have a suggestion for the hate-filled extremists who are constantly trying to tear our country down," Trump said. "They never have anything good to say. That's why I say, 'Hey if you don't like it, let 'em leave, let 'em leave.'"
  • The context, from AP: "Not since George Wallace's campaign in 1968 has a presidential candidate — and certainly not an incumbent president — put racial polarization at the center of his call to voters."

For any Republican thinking past 2020, here are numbers to fear, reported by Axios' Stef Kight:

  • The Hispanic share of the population has grown in every state since 2000, according to Census data.
  • Hispanic people now make up a quarter of the population in Florida, almost a third of the population in Arizona and 39% of Texas — all Trump states in 2016 that are becoming more winnable by Democrats.
  • Florida and Texas, two of the big electoral giants that voted for Trump, are witnessing the fastest non-white population growth. 

This wave is only accelerating, as Stef reported in "America's majority minority future":

  • Next year, the entire under-18 population will be majority non-white, according to Brookings demographer William Frey.
  • In less than a decade, the under-30 population will be majority non-white.

Between the lines: Trump clearly thinks this is good short-term politics.

  • Truth is: It's unknowable, though highly debatable.
  • Long-term, it seems unambiguous: If you need more African American and Hispanic voters, maligning and marginalizing them strikes even some inside this White House as stupid politics.

Go deeper: A tough time to be a Trump supporter

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Go deeper

Updated 44 mins ago - Health

The case for Operation Warp Speed 2.0

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Omicron's blitz around the world has underscored the need for a new arsenal of COVID vaccines and therapeutics, experts say — and that may require an effort akin to Operation Warp Speed 2.0.

Why it matters: The virus will continue to evolve, potentially in a way that further escapes vaccine protection, and the best way to prevent more global disruptions to everyday life is to have tools ready to combat whatever comes next.

Ina Fried, author of Login
1 hour ago - Technology
Column / Signal Boost

Microsoft's metaverse maneuvering

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Microsoft is pitching investors and regulators that its $68 billion Activision Blizzard deal is all about the metaverse, that nebulous buzzword taking the tech world by storm.

What they're saying: By my colleague Stephen Totilo's count, Nadella used the word "metaverse" at least five times in his conference call discussing the deal. Activision Blizzard CEO Bobby Kotick mentioned the metaverse four times, while Microsoft gaming chief Phil Spencer used the term twice.

Women in same-gender partnerships face a double pay gap

Expand chart
Data: The Hamilton Project; Chart: Kavya Beheraj/Axios

A married female couple will bring home lower wages, on average, than an opposite-gender married couple or a same-gender male couple.

Why it matters: Women in same-gender partnerships can experience (at least) two kinds of discrimination, based on their gender and on their sexual orientation.