Jun 8, 2019

Relying on the Fed posse

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Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Chart: Axios Visuals

The long jobs boom, a pillar of confidence in the U.S. economy, has hit what economists say is a self-inflicted hiccup: President's Trump's multiple trade wars.

What to watch: As Americans have done for a decade and longer, they — along with Trump himself, running for re-election next year — will likely rely on the Fed to come to the rescue.

Driving the news: In numbers released Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the economy created just 75,000 jobs last month, fewer than the 80,000-100,000 needed to absorb new entrants to the work force, like high school and college graduates.

  • In addition, the BLS revised down its March and April figures by 75,000 jobs — meaning that the May figures were a wash. The unemployment rate held at 3.6% — the lowest in almost a half-century — but it still was as though no jobs were created last month at all.

The big picture: Economists say the new figures, combined with other indications of economic deterioration, suggest that the economy is downshifting to slower growth. Beyond the impact on ordinary Americans and businesses, there are political ramifications:

  • Analysts blame Trump: "Whatever stress there is [to economic conditions] is largely man-made, and the man in question has an office on Pennsylvania Ave.," said Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman.
  • Despite the chaos, they think Trump is likely to keep up his trade fight through the November 2020 election, because it plays to his base. So to make sure there is no recession come Election Day next year, they think he will turn to the Fed to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy.
  • "There is significant and growing risk a recession will start in the second half of 2020 just in time for the election," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. "One should anticipate a new White House offensive against the Fed to be imminent."

As we reported Thursday, the tension with China and Mexico is playing havoc with the U.S. and global economy. A report this week, for instance, said U.S. manufacturing for May was the weakest since October 2016 — before Trump won office. And in another report, LinkedIn said that overall hiring actually dropped last month by 0.9% year-on-year.

Against these winds, Wall Street has decided it is time for a buying spree: All three major U.S. indexes rose on Friday by more than 1%. What's that all about? At the FT, Gillian Tett writes that investors are convinced that, whether it is because of pressure from Trump or not, "the Fed will do whatever is needed to avoid a downturn."

Thought bubble from Axios markets editor Dion Rabouin: "Lost in much of the discussion about the jobs report and the Fed is the fact that globally central banks are still easing policy. That is, they continue pumping hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy. This has been going on for a decade. At some point, someone is going to have to raise the possibility that more easy money in the banking system may not be achieving the desired result."

What is that desired result: "A healthy economy that does not require stimulus and can stand on its own."

Go deeper

World coronavirus updates

Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins; Map: Axios Visuals

New Zealand has only eight active novel coronavirus cases and no COVID-19 patients in hospital after another day of zero new infections. However, the death toll rose to 22.

Zoom in: A top health official told a briefing a 96-year-old woman "was regarded to having recovered from COVID-19 at the time of her death, and COVID-19 is not recorded as the primary cause of her death on her death certificate." But it was decided to include her in the overall tally of deaths related to the virus.

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 10 p.m. ET: 5,690,951 — Total deaths: 355,575 — Total recoveries — 2,350,071Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 10 p.m. ET: 1,699,073 — Total deaths: 100,396 — Total recoveries: 391,508 — Total tested: 15,192,481Map.
  3. Public health: CDC issues guidelines for reopening officesFauci says data is "really quite evident" against hydroxychloroquine.
  4. States: California hospitals strained by patients in MexicoTexas Supreme Court blocks mail-in expansion to state voters.
  5. Business: MGM plans to reopen major Las Vegas resorts in June — African American business owners have seen less relief from PPP, Goldman Sachs says.
  6. Tech: AI will help in the pandemic — but it might not be in time for this one.
  7. World: EU proposes a massive pandemic rescue package.
  8. 1 🎶 thing: Local music venues get rocked by coronavirus.
  9. 🎧 Podcast: Trump vs. Twitter ... vs. Trump.
  10. What should I do? When you can be around others after contracting the coronavirus — Traveling, asthma, dishes, disinfectants and being contagiousMasks, lending books and self-isolatingExercise, laundry, what counts as soap — Pets, moving and personal healthAnswers about the virus from Axios expertsWhat to know about social distancingHow to minimize your risk.
  11. Other resources: CDC on how to avoid the virus, what to do if you get it, the right mask to wear.

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Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

U.S. coronavirus updates

Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins; Map: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios. This graphic includes "probable deaths" that New York City began reporting on April 14.

More than 100,000 Americans have died of the coronavirus, according to data from Johns Hopkins — a milestone that puts the death toll far beyond some of the most tragic events in U.S. history.

By the numbers: Over 1.6 million have tested positive in the U.S. Nearly 354,000 Americans have recovered and over 15.1 million tests have been conducted. California became the fourth state with at least 100,000 reported cases of the coronavirus on Wednesday, along with Illinois, New Jersey and New York.