The future of IRA energy incentives hangs in part on a fight this week between GOP hardliners and moderates.

Why it matters: House Republicans, who promised for months to approach the IRA with a scalpel, appear increasingly willing to use a sledgehammer.

Driving the news: Conservatives say they're angling to amend the reconciliation package to further curtail clean energy credits before the bill hits the House floor this week.

• Four voted "present" during a Budget Committee meeting late last night, enabling the panel to send the package to the floor.
• Rep. Chip Roy, who has crusaded for a full repeal of the IRA, said yesterday that the bill "now will move Medicaid work requirements forward and reduces the availability of future subsidies under the green new scam."
• But he added that it "does not yet meet the moment — leaving almost half of the green new scam subsidies continuing."

Between the lines: Any move to further roll back IRA energy credits could risk losing up to a dozen House Republicans who signed a statement last week urging their party keep the credits accessible.

• The statement, led by Rep. Jen Kiggans, said the reconciliation proposal's foreign entity of concern provisions were "overly prescriptive and risk undermining U.S. competitiveness" and that it was "essential" the projects access the credits when they begin construction.
• Kiggans also teamed with Reps. Andrew Garbarino, Dan Newhouse, Mark Amodei and David Valadao on legislation to more "responsibly" phase out the tax credits.

Reality check: Although IRA-friendly Republicans have promised to protect some IRA credits, none have explicitly pledged to vote against the larger package if their favored tax credits were curtailed.

"Johnson seems to be facing more pressure from hardliners than moderates right now," ClearView Energy Partners wrote in a Friday note. "These dynamics could leave room for deeper IRA cuts … at least for now."

• "Which is to say: if IRA defenders within the GOP conference intend to raise their voices in protest, they don't have much time (at least in this round)," it added.

What's next: The Rules Committee is set to meet at 1am Wednesday. (Yes, you read that right.)

• That's where we could see substantive changes to the bill, possibly in the form of a manager's amendment.
• Two Budget Committee holdouts — Roy and Rep. Ralph Norman — also serve on Rules, so expect the deficit hawks to wield influence over the final product.

Our thought bubble: As time runs short on IRA defense in the House, we're closely watching Senate Republicans who could seek IRA changes.

• Sens. Lisa Murkowski, John Curtis, Thom Tillis and Jerry Moran all signed a pro-IRA letter last month.
• But expect other senators like Bill Cassidy, Lindsey Graham, Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst to face rising pressure to reverse some of the hardliners' cuts.

U.S. energy regulators dismissed a power grid operator's plan to speed power plant reviews to meet rising energy demand.

Why it matters: Friday's ruling — which GOP Chair Mark Christie opposed — comes after bipartisan pushback from former FERC commissioners and independent power producers.

• The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) is the latest grid operator to seek ways to quickly add power capacity, which comes as Congress and some states consider fast-tracking power plants.

Driving the news: FERC voted 2–1 to reject the plan, with Republican Commissioner Lindsay See joining Democratic Commissioner David Rosner. (Democrat Judy Chang didn't vote.)

• The majority agreed with critics that MISO — which serves 15 Midwestern and Southern states — failed to show its program was just and reasonable, and not unduly discriminatory.
• MISO's failure to limit the number of projects that could be entered and to spell out targeted criteria would simply create another backlogged queue of projects, FERC found.
• Christie said he would've been willing to give the grid operator and states supportive of the plan the "benefit of the doubt" to stave off a grid reliability crisis.

Between the lines: FERC approved a similar but narrower plan in February from PJM Interconnection, the country's largest grid operator, to expedite some power plants.

What's next: MISO can revise and refile its application.

• Christie urged MISO to "address the concerns the majority has identified and next time, submit a filing that is better explained and better supported."

⛽️ 1. Senate CRAze: The Senate is expected to vote this week on overturning California's authority to write its own auto emissions rules — and overrule the Senate parliamentarian in the process.

📊 2. Be Wright back: DOE Secretary Chris Wright is back on the Hill on Wednesday afternoon to defend the DOE budget before the Senate Appropriations Committee.

• Wright faced accusations from House Democrats last week that he lied to Congress about the status of DOE funding and staff.

🏞️ 3. Burgum on budget: Senate Approps will also host Interior Secretary Doug Burgum for a budget hearing Wednesday.

🤖 4. AI oversight: House Natural Resources will mark up six energy and mineral resources bills tomorrow.

• Nat Res will also hold an oversight hearing Wednesday on using public lands for data centers and energy.

🏛️ 5. On the floor: The full House is teeing up votes on a Senate-passed repeal of EPA air quality rules, as well as on legislation that would require the DOE to report twice a year on demonstration projects funded by IIJA.