Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
The top Senate committees on energy and climate issues are opening up to new leaders in the next session of Congress.
Why it matters: The panels in charge of EPA, DOE, Interior and the farm bill will look very different next year, and the shuffling will help set the legislative agenda.
Energy and Natural Resources
Retiring Chair Joe Manchin has been leading the Senate charge on permitting legislation, but if it doesn't get done this year, the future becomes murkier with new committee leadership.
If Republicans win:
- Mike Lee is the current favorite to take over the gavel for the GOP, with current ranking member John Barrasso vying to become the Senate's No. 2 Republican.
- The Utah senator is a frequent barrier to moving legislation on the floor and a longtime opponent of federal ownership of Western public lands.
- But Lee could also be tapped to be attorney general in a Trump administration, which would open the door for senators such as Steve Daines or John Hoeven.
- Lee "looks forward to increasing local access and management for federal lands while stopping Washington's abuse of the Antiquities Act and overreach by BLM," a spokesman for the senator told Axios.
If Democrats hold:
- Martin Heinrich is the overwhelming favorite for chair, unless he's tapped for a role in a Harris administration.
- He's focused heavily on transmission and is a proponent of the Manchin-Barrasso bill. The post would also give him heavy sway in writing the energy provisions of a possible reconciliation bill (IRA round 2, anyone?).
- Still, the partnership with Lee could be fraught.
- "One thing I'm fearful of is, does ENR turn into a House E&C, where things just kind of sit there, and it's a bunch of messaging bills and clickbait, and that's all they do," said an energy lobbyist who tracks the committee and who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Environment and Public Works
Chair Tom Carper has forged a close relationship with ranking member Shelley Moore Capito, and EPW could still be productive after his retirement.
If Republicans win:
- Capito would be in line to be chair, and she'd likely wield the gavel early to go after EPA rulemakings, possibly even repealing actions from the Biden administration if the cards align.
- Capito spokesperson Brent Scott noted her work protecting "reliable American energy production and manufacturing" and on infrastructure legislation.
- She was a key player on the IIJA and got the ADVANCE Act across the finish line with Carper.
- Her staff has a reputation as hardworking, and we'd expect bipartisan legislation to keep coming out of EPW under her leadership.
If Democrats hold:
- Sheldon Whitehouse, the Senate's top climate hawk, is the consensus pick to take over the gavel.
- But it's possible he would keep the Budget chairmanship in a Democratic sweep to take charge of a reconciliation bill — much like Bernie Sanders, who stayed at Budget and allowed Manchin to ascend on ENR back in 2019.
- Progressive Sens. Jeff Merkley and Ed Markey are next in seniority were Whitehouse to forgo the chair.
- Whitehouse has a fiery reputation, but he's got a bipartisan track record, frequently working with Republicans on issues like carbon capture and nuclear.
Agriculture
Retiring Chair Debbie Stabenow and ranking member John Boozman have been at odds over the five-year farm bill package, and a reshuffling at the top could either invigorate those talks or create new barriers.
If Republicans win:
- Boozman would likely take the gavel. He told Axios last month he still wants to lift any "climate guardrails" that restrict farm bill funding to ag practices that are proved to either lower greenhouse gas emissions or sequester carbon.
- The limits exclude practices like improving water quality and conservation in drought-stricken areas, he said. "When you go out West, it's water, water, water."
If Democrats win:
- Amy Klobuchar is the favorite to lead the committee, representing ag-heavy Minnesota.
- Klobuchar is seen as a moderate who has worked across the aisle on issues such as ethanol blending, improving farmers' credit access and speeding up USDA conservation standards.
Appropriations' Energy and Water Development Subcommittee
The post has been held by full committee Chair Patty Murray since the death of Sen. Dianne Feinstein last year.
If Republicans win:
- John Kennedy has been the top Republican on the panel, but Mitch McConnell may claim a subcommittee gavel as he steps down from GOP leadership.
- McConnell could grab energy-water, or cause some musical chairs by claiming another subcommittee.
If Democrats hold:
- Murray initially took over on an interim basis but later gave up another subcommittee gavel to continue leading energy-water for the fiscal 2025 cycle.
- She could keep it next Congress. Heinrich, who currently chairs the Ag Subcommittee, has expressed interest in the role, but it's not clear Democrats would let him lead both the energy-water panel and ENR.
