llustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

You already know what you think about the midterms, or are smarter than to predict. So here's a cheat sheet for what comes next.

The state of play for President Trump's next 30ish hours: Lose as expected, and he'd face a narrowly controlled Democratic House and a friendly Republican Senate with the ability to keep confirming judges. Lose by a landslide, and the House would get more hostile, and even the Senate would be at risk. But win by any margin, and he could get even more aggressive on tax cuts, health care and immigration, with only congressional fears of 2020 in the way.

Between the lines... Assuming the expected Democratic House and Republican Senate, here's how the AP sees it going from investors' point of view:

  • “Divided government equals gridlock,” said Terry Haines, head of U.S. policy and political analysis at Evercore ISI. “Gridlock is a good thing for markets because markets like certainty.”
  • "Agreement on an infrastructure bill could give a boost to construction equipment and transportation companies. And legislation to control drug pricing would likely be a drag on pharmaceutical company stocks."
  • "A Democrat-led House could also lead to heightened oversight and investigations of big banks and Wall Street firms, which could weigh on financial sector stocks."
  • "The possibility of a government shutdown also increases with a divided Congress... The S&P 500 slumped nearly 20 percent during the government shutdown that occurred during Congress’ 2011 debt ceiling impasse."

What's next, if history holds: "The S&P 500 has generated an average price return of 16.7 percent in the 12 months after each of the midterm elections going back to 1946, according to CFRA. That’s 18 elections, many of which ended up shuffling the balance of power in Congress."

Go deeper: Axios' Dan Primack and Alexi McCammond set the stage for tomorrow's midterms on the Pro Rata podcast.

Go deeper

Updated 7 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 9:30 p.m. ET: 20,004,254 — Total deaths: 733,929 — Total recoveries — 12,209,226Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 9:30 p.m. ET: 5,088,516 — Total deaths: 163,400 — Total recoveries: 1,670,755 — Total tests: 62,513,174Map.
  3. Politics: Trump claims he would have not called for Obama to resign over 160,000 virus deathsHouse will not hold votes until Sept. 14 unless stimulus deal is reached.
  4. Business: Richer Americans are more comfortable eating out.
  5. Public health: 5 states set single-day coronavirus case records last week — A dual coronavirus and flu threat is set to deliver a winter from hell.
  6. Sports: The cost of kids losing gym class — College football is on the brink.
  7. World: Europe's CDC recommends new restrictions amid "true resurgence in cases."

AOC to speak at Dem convention

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez during an April a press conference in Queens, New York City. Photo: Scott Heins/Getty Images)

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will speak at the Democratic convention next week ahead of Sen. Bernie Sanders' appearance on the Tuesday night, CNN first reported and Axios has confirmed

Why it matters: Her involvement is a strategic decision to energize young progressives without tying former Vice President Joe Biden too closely or directly with her agenda.

1 hour ago - World

Protests in Belarus turn deadly following sham election

An arrest today in Minsk. Photo: Natalia Fedosenko/TASS via Getty

Protesters and security forces are clashing across Belarus tonight, with at least one person dead, hundreds injured and thousands arrested.

Why it matters: Sunday’s rigged presidential elections have yielded political uncertainty unlike any seen in Aleksander Lukashenko’s 26-year tenure. After claiming an implausible 80% of the vote, Lukashenko is using every tool in the authoritarian arsenal to maintain his grip on power.