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Alex Brandon / AP

A pair of Republican firms, Definers Public Affairs and WPA Intelligence, partnered up to conduct a survey that would gauge voter sentiment on tax reform.

  • The firms collected data based on scores from their national model, which were applied to voters in 10 states that President Trump won in 2016 and are currently held by a Democratic Senator up for re-election in 2018.
  • The survey found "broad support" for the tax reform effort, with average support of 68.43% across 10 key states: Florida, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.
  • Support for the administration's tax plan was highest in four states Trump won by double-digits in 2016 and where incumbent Democrat Senators are particularly vulnerable: West Virginia, Montana, North Dakota, and Missouri.

The question the firms asked voters in those states:

Please tell me if you support or oppose the tax reform plan that is currently being considered by Congress. This plan cuts taxes and would save the average American family around two thousand dollars per year, or more, by doubling the yearly standard deduction, eliminating the death tax, removing the tax on savings interest and dividends and ending the alternative minimum tax. From what you know do you support or oppose this tax reform plan? The findings:

  • Florida: 63.1% support Trump's tax plan; while 36.9% oppose it
  • Indiana: 68.4% support; 31.6% oppose
  • Michigan: 62.6% support, 37.4% oppose
  • Missouri: 72.5% support, 27.5% oppose
  • Montana: 75.0% support; 25.1% oppose
  • North Dakota: 72.8% support, 27.2% oppose
  • Ohio: 67.2% support, 32.8% oppose
  • Pennsylvania: 56.6% support, 43.4% oppose
  • West Virginia: 77.3% support, 22.7% oppose
  • Wisconsin: 68.8% support, 31.2% oppose

Survey method: "7,277 responses were collected via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) calls. Responses were then matched to a consumer data enhanced voter file which contains data on vote history, voter demography, socio-economics, political behavior, and consumer behavior."

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