Dec 20, 2019 - Health

The political risk of overturning the ACA

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Data: Urban Institute Health Policy Center; Note: Uninsured rate is among the nonelderly population. Map: Danielle Alberti/Axios

Swing states and red states stand to lose the most if the courts ultimately throw out the Affordable Care Act, according to a new analysis by the Urban Institute.

Why it matters: President Trump and Republican attorneys general could pay a steep political price if they succeed in their quest to kill the law.

Details: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio and New Hampshire would see their uninsured rates shoot up by more than 100%.

  • Maine would be hit harder than almost any other state, and is home to one of the GOP's most vulnerable senators up for reelection, Susan Collins.
  • States like Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky, West Virginia and Montana don't have competitive Senate races at this point, but the pending lawsuit could put GOP incumbents in those states in a bind.

Bonus: The analysis found that providers also take a financial hit.

Go deeper: The ACA legal fight isn't even close to over

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Health policy in 2020 will be made in the states

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

With legislation in Congress likely to be blocked by partisan division and interest group opposition, much of the real action in health care this year will be in the states.

The big picture: States don’t have the money or purchasing power the federal government does, but their decisions nevertheless affect millions of people, and they could signal the future of federal reform.

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DNC kicks off multi-million investment in 2020 battleground states

Chair of DNC Tom Perez on Dec. 19, 2019. Photo: Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images

The Democratic National Committee announced Wednesday that it will invest millions of dollars into six states in preparation for the 2020 general election, CNN reports.

Why it matters: It's the committee's first major political expense in the 2020 election cycle and targets competitive battleground states that President Trump won in 2016: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, North Carolina and Arizona.

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Supreme Court won't fast-track Affordable Care Act case

Photo: Samuel Corum/Getty Images

The Supreme Court said Monday that it won't speed up a lawsuit that aims to strike down the entire Affordable Care Act. The law's defenders had asked the high court to step in earlier than usual, but the justices opted to let the normal appeals process run its course instead.

Why it matters: This unsurprising move all but ensures that the court won't decide the ACA's fate until after the 2020 presidential election. If the justices ultimately do strike down all or part of the health care law, President Trump won't have to answer for the ensuing disruption during a campaign — and it could end up being his successor's mess to clean up.

Go deeper: The ACA legal fight isn't even close to over

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