Exclusive poll: The partisan split on the stock market

Data: Survey Monkey online poll conducted Dec. 17-18, 2018, among 2,301 adults. Total margin of error is ±3.0 percentage points; Poll methodology; Chart: Naema Ahmed/Axios

Americans' predictions for the stock market this year are almost completely determined by party, with Democrats as pessimistic about the coming year's stock performance as Republicans are optimistic, according to an Axios/SurveyMonkey poll.

Between the lines: The two parties are almost exact mirror images of each other, with independents caught in the middle. It's a good reminder of how much people's political views can shape their expectations for their personal finances, not just politics.

By the numbers:

  • The differences were even more stark on whether it's a good time or a bad time to invest in the markets: 70% of Republicans said it's a good time, while 63% of Democrats said it's a bad time.
  • Independents were closely divided: 50% said it's a bad time to invest, 45% said it's a good time.
  • There's less of a divide between people who have already invested in the stock market and those who haven't. 36% of investors say the stock market will end up higher at the end of the year, compared to 28% of non-investors. Roughly a third of both groups believe it will end up lower.

Methodology: The SurveyMonkey online poll was conducted among adults ages 18 and older in the United States. Respondents were selected from the more than 2 million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data have been weighted for age, race, sex, education and geography using the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States age 18 and over. The survey was conducted Dec. 17–18, 2018, among 2,301 adults. The modeled error estimate for the full sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points and crosstabs are available here.