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A server sanitizes an outdoor dining yurt in Manhattan. Photo: Alexi Rosenfeld/Getty Images

In a new analysis, U.S. government economists have used data to project which jobs will fare well and not so well in the next several years.

Why it matters: The findings show how the pandemic has allowed some industries to thrive while decimating others, Jed Kolko, chief economist at the jobs site Indeed, writes in the New York Times.

The booms:

  • The job of epidemiologist is projected to grow by 25% by 2029, meaning there will be 25% more epidemiologists in 2029 than there would have been without the pandemic.
  • Medical scientists, not including epidemiologists, 23% growth.
  • Web developers, 11%.
  • Biochemists and biophysicists, 10%.
  • Computer systems administrators, 10%.

The busts:

  • The job of host or hostess at a restaurant is expected to decline by 24% by 2029, meaning 24% fewer hosts and hostesses in 2029 than there would have been sans pandemic.
  • Bartenders, –19%.
  • Travel and ticket agents, –17%.
  • Hotel and motel clerks, –16%.
  • Servers, –16%.

The bottom line: It's typically low-skilled, low-wage jobs that require a high school diploma or less that are getting — and will continue to get — hit hardest, underscoring the need for the U.S. to train and upskill its workforce post-pandemic.

Go deeper

Kate Marino, author of Markets
53 mins ago - Economy & Business

Omicron outbreaks were bad for business in January

Data: New York Federal Reserve Bank; Chart: Axios Visuals

Emerging anecdotal evidence shows just how hard the recent rise in COVID-19 cases hit businesses in early January — but that hasn't hurt some business leaders’ longer-term views on their companies' prospects.

Why it matters: Increasingly, the economic recovery has come in fits and starts that move in tandem with new peaks in cases. Look no further than the thousands of cancelled flights and shuttered Broadway theaters in the wake of the Omicron variant's spread over the last few months.

Tina Reed, author of Vitals
1 hour ago - Health

The shifting definition of fully vaccinated

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The definition of what it means to be "fully vaccinated" is evolving even as the CDC has remained careful not to officially change it.

Why it matters: CDC officials have been balancing the job of convincing Americans who've already gotten two doses of the importance of boosters with getting many Americans who still need their first doses to get their shots at all.

Mike Allen, author of AM
2 hours ago - Economy & Business

Small businesses see hiring as No. 1 worry

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Almost every small business owner in a Goldman Sachs survey is having trouble hiring — and two-thirds think the federal government has done too little to ease their hiring, supply-chain and inflation worries.

Why it matters: The Goldman Sachs research gives a vivid window into the continuing headwinds and hardship for entrepreneurs.