Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios Visuals

Orange juice prices have surged by more than 30% so far this year making it the world's top performing commodity.

Why it matters: Demand for the beverage continues to rise and supply has faced constraints, in part because of the exponential increase of coronavirus cases in Brazil, a top global center of OJ production.

On one side: U.S. retail sales of orange juice rose 46% from a year earlier in the four-week period ending April 11, the most since January 2015, according to Bloomberg, citing the Florida Department of Citrus and data from Nielsen.

  • After two decades of declining sales when Americans moved away from juice and opted for lower sugar beverages, orange juice consumption is reversing the trend as part of the quarantine diet.
  • It also has been sought because it is rich in vitamin C, which bolsters immune systems, in the face of the pandemic.

“The taboos of the past two decades are now erased, and with people trying to shop less frequently, drinking OJ can replace fresh fruit,” Judy Ganes, the president of J. Ganes Consulting, told Bloomberg.

  • “This was the long-awaited break the industry needed to shake off prior negative posturing and give OJ a fresh start.”

On the other side: Production had been expected to decline for the 2020–2021 orange crop and the latest estimate from Brazil's Fundecitrus showed it would be 25.6% smaller than the previous crop and 12.5% below the average crop size for the last 10 years.

  • That was largely because of poor weather conditions, and the coronavirus pandemic will likely further dent production as pickers get sick or are unable to work because of the virus.
  • Brazil now has the world's second highest number of cases, with nearly 365,000 confirmed.

But, but, but: As I wrote in March, orange juice prices are much higher than they have been in the past couple years but remain well below 2017 and 2018 highs.

Go deeper: Coronavirus has hit American farmers from all sides

Go deeper

Updated 13 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Mary Trump book: How she leaked Trump financials to NYT

Simon & Schuster

In her new memoir, President Trump's niece reveals how she leaked hordes of confidential Trump family financial documents to the New York Times in an effort to expose her uncle, whom she portrays as a dangerous sociopath.

Why it matters: Trump was furious when he found out recently that Mary Trump, a trained psychologist, would be publishing a tell-all memoir. And Trump's younger brother, Robert, tried and failed to block the publication of "Too Much and Never Enough: How My Family Created the World's Most Dangerous Man."

Updated 24 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 3:30 p.m. ET: 11,691,068 — Total deaths: 540,062 — Total recoveries — 6,349,542Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 3:30 p.m. ET: 2,963,244 — Total deaths: 130,813 — Total recoveries: 924,148 — Total tested: 36,225,015Map.
  3. 2020: Biden releases plan to strengthen coronavirus supply chain.
  4. Congress: Trump administration notifies Congress of intent to withdraw from WHO.
  5. Public health: Fauci says it's a "false narrative" to take comfort in lower coronavirus death rate.
  6. World: Brazil's President Bolsonaro tests positive— India reports third-highest case count in the world.
44 mins ago - Health

Fauci: "False narrative" to take comfort in lower coronavirus death rate

Anthony Fauci testifies in Washington, D.C., on June 30. Photo: Al Drago/AFP via Getty Images

Anthony Fauci said at an event with Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.) on Tuesday "that it's a false narrative to take comfort in a lower rate of death" from the coronavirus in the U.S., warning: "There’s so many other things that are dangerous and bad about the virus. Don’t get into false complacency."

The big picture: The mean age of Americans currently being infected by the virus has declined by 15 years compared to where it stood several months ago. This has been one contributing factor in the lower death rate the U.S. has experienced during the recent surge in cases, since "the younger you are, the better you do, and the less likely you're gonna get seriously ill and die," Fauci said.