Progressive group's tax campaign in Iowa should worry Republicans

Iowa Rep. Rod Blum. Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images

Republicans are starting to see that campaigning on tax reform might not be enough to keep control of the House in November.

State of play: Iowa Rep. Rod Blum's disapproval rating on taxes has gone from 28% to 40% since August, per a new Not One Penny study. And in Pennsylvania, Republicans backed off campaigning on the GOP tax plan in the final days ahead of the PA-18 special election. Progressive groups like Not One Penny are using this to argue that Democrats can win over voters if they make the argument that the tax law benefits millionaires, corporations and incumbent Republicans.

Why this matters: Iowa's first congressional district is the quintessential Obama-Trump district that Democrats are trying to take back — it went 56% for Obama in 2012 and 48% for Trump in 2016. The results show how Democrats' continued attacks on the GOP tax plan can weaken Republicans' main campaign talking point in some districts.

By the numbers:

  • Not One Penny's survey results were compiled after their six-figure, 100-day ad campaign targeting Rep. Blum on taxes.
  • Blum's unfavorable margin doubled to 19 percentage points over the course of the campaign and 43% of independent voters now view him unfavorably.

The other side: Half of all voters in the 10 states that voted for Trump but have Democratic senators say the economy is better off now than it was a year ago. And in nine of the states majorities approve of the GOP tax law.

What's next

U.S. evacuates personnel as coronavirus death toll climbs

A health worker checks the temperatures of Chinese travelers arriving in Beijing from Wuhan. Photo: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

56 people have died from an outbreak of a coronavirus strain that originated in Wuhan, China, according to the Chinese National Health Commission.

The latest: The U.S. Embassy in Beijing announced plans to evacuate its Wuhan consulate personnel and some private citizens on a limited-capacity charter flight from the city to San Francisco on Tuesday, per AP, which reports that those "at greater risk from coronavirus" would be prioritized over others.

Go deeperArrowJan 20, 2020 - World

Biden maintains nationwide polling lead as Warren support falls

The 2020 Democratic presidential hopefuls. Photo: Kerem Yucel/AFP via Getty Images

The latest ABC News/Washington Post national poll produced by Langer Research Associates has Joe Biden maintaining his lead with Bernie Sanders claiming second.

Why it matters: Nine days before the Iowa caucuses, Elizabeth Warren’s support among polled Democrats has declined from 21% to 11% since an ABC News/WashPost poll in October.

Andrew Yang qualifies for February debates

Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images

The next Democratic debate scheduled for Feb. 7 will fall after the Iowa caucuses, four days before the New Hampshire primary, ABC News reports.

The latest: Andrew Yang on Jan. 26 became the seventh Democrat to qualify for the February debate after polling above 5% in UNH/CNN's New Hampshire survey, his fourth qualifying poll.

Go deeperArrowJan 17, 2020 - Politics