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Iowa Rep. Rod Blum. Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images

Republicans are starting to see that campaigning on tax reform might not be enough to keep control of the House in November.

State of play: Iowa Rep. Rod Blum's disapproval rating on taxes has gone from 28% to 40% since August, per a new Not One Penny study. And in Pennsylvania, Republicans backed off campaigning on the GOP tax plan in the final days ahead of the PA-18 special election. Progressive groups like Not One Penny are using this to argue that Democrats can win over voters if they make the argument that the tax law benefits millionaires, corporations and incumbent Republicans.

Why this matters: Iowa's first congressional district is the quintessential Obama-Trump district that Democrats are trying to take back — it went 56% for Obama in 2012 and 48% for Trump in 2016. The results show how Democrats' continued attacks on the GOP tax plan can weaken Republicans' main campaign talking point in some districts.

By the numbers:

  • Not One Penny's survey results were compiled after their six-figure, 100-day ad campaign targeting Rep. Blum on taxes.
  • Blum's unfavorable margin doubled to 19 percentage points over the course of the campaign and 43% of independent voters now view him unfavorably.

The other side: Half of all voters in the 10 states that voted for Trump but have Democratic senators say the economy is better off now than it was a year ago. And in nine of the states majorities approve of the GOP tax law.

Go deeper

Dan Primack, author of Pro Rata
15 mins ago - Economy & Business

Gen Z breaks into VC

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

When Meagan Loyst joined VC firm Lerer Hippeau, less than two years out of Boston College, she was still living with her parents. She had virtually no online brand presence, and the pandemic made it impossible to build a professional network via in-person meetings.

Why it matters: Loyst wasn't alone. Venture firms have accelerated hiring in line with record deal activity, often seeking younger investors who can spot trends that fly below the radar (or intrinsic understanding) of older partners.

White House aims to protect workers from extreme heat

Two pear pickers in Hood River, Oregon on August 13, 2021. (Michael Hanson/AFP via Getty Images)

The White House announced a slew of actions Monday, including the start of a rule-making process at the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), to protect American workers from extreme heat.

Driving the news: The U.S. just had its hottest summer on record, with triple-digit-temperatures killing hundreds in the Pacific Northwest and exposing outdoor workers to dangerous conditions.

Robert Costa: Gen. Mark Milley "was not going rogue" with China calls

Washington Post journalist Robert Costa on Monday said in an interview with ABC's Good Morning America that Joint Chiefs Chairman Mark Milley "was not going rogue" when told his Chinese counterpart that the U.S. would not launch a surprise attack.

Driving the news: President Biden last week expressed "great confidence" in Milley after excerpts released from Costa's and Bob Woodward's book "Peril" revealed calls where Milley admits he would let China know ahead of time if former President Trump decided to attack.