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U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson at Venture Quay on the Isle of Wight in June. Photo: Dominic Lipinski/WPA Pool/Getty Images

Britain faces shortages of fuel, food and medicine and a likely hard border in Ireland if there's a no-deal Brexit on Oct. 31, according to U.K. government documents leaked to the Sunday Times.

Why it matters: The Cabinet Office forecast outlines the most likely aftershocks of a no-deal Brexit rather than a worst-case scenario, according to the news outlet.

  • The forecast comes as the Telegraph reports that Prime Minister Boris Johnson will tell German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron this week that the British Parliament can't stop Brexit.

What they're saying: Current plans to avoid widespread checks will prove unsustainable, making a hard Irish border likely, according to the Cabinet Office leak.

  • The Cabinet Office estimates up to 85% of trucks using the main crossings in the Channel that separates Britain and France "may not be ready" for French customs, potentially causing up to 3 months of disruption at ports, per the Sunday Times.

The big picture: Johnson is due to meet his European counterparts ahead of a G7 summit on Aug. 24–26 in Biarritz, France, in what will be his first trip abroad as leader, per Reuters.

  • The Telegraph reports that its former regular columnist Johnson is expected to tell Merkel and Macron "that they have two months to agree a deal acceptable to the cabinet and parliament, without which the UK will exit without an agreement on Halloween."

Go deeper:

Go deeper

Updated 1 hour ago - Politics & Policy

Political consultants pocket taxpayer cash

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

Members of Congress are turning to the same political consultants who got them elected to blast out taxpayer-funded communications from their government offices, records show.

Why it matters: While those members are barred from politicking with official funds, the firms have expertise in boosting elected officials' images for political gain and are in high demand for both campaign and government work.

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Omicron dashboard

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

  1. Health: Transplants rebound from COVID lull
  2. Vaccines: WHO: No evidence that healthy children, teens need boosters — Kids' COVID vaccination rates are particularly low in rural America
  3. Politics: Government website for free COVID tests launches early
  4. World: Greece imposes vaccine mandate for people 60 and older
  5. Variant tracker
2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Schumer pushes for doomed filibuster changes

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer addresses reporters Tuesday. Photo: Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told the Democratic caucus Tuesday night he plans to propose instituting a one-time "talking" filibuster requirement, and bypassing the 60-vote threshold for major legislation, to pass the party's election reforms package via simple majority.

Why it matters: While Schumer acknowledged both votes are expected to fail — and some vulnerable Democrats up for re-election feel it will put them in a tough spot — he argued it's worth putting members on the record for historic legislation.