Sharp-elbowed attacks over ICE, fraud and electability are flying in the high-stakes U.S. Senate primary between U.S. Rep. Angie Craig and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan.

Why it matters: Political fallout over Operation Metro Surge has stoked a race that was already seen as a proxy battle over the future of the Democratic Party.

Catch up quick: President Trump's immigration enforcement crackdown angered and activated Democratic voters statewide.

• That gave Flanagan, already the favorite among progressives, an opening to hammer Craig over a 2025 vote to give agents more authority to detain noncitizens accused of certain crimes.
• In early March, Craig reversed course and said she "regrets" her "difficult" decision to vote for the Laken Riley Act.

What we're hearing: The issue has given Flanagan serious momentum among the delegates who will decide the DFL Party's endorsement in May, multiple DFL analysts and operatives told Axios.

• "She's clearly got a bump," former DFL state Sen. Jeff Hayden told Axios. "[Craig's] lack of sensitivity or judgment on that vote, I think matters a lot to people."

Yes, but: Many of those same DFL insiders, including Hayden, said they wouldn't count Craig out for the August primary even if she loses the endorsement.

What they're saying: "There's no doubt" that backlash over ICE is helping Flanagan "ride away with delegates," Abou Amara, an attorney and political analyst, told Axios.

• But winning the nomination is "not just a question of narrative ... [or] base support," Amara said. "It's a resources question."

Between the lines: The universe of voters who actually pick the nominee is much bigger, and historically more ideologically diverse, than those who decide the endorsement.

• In some recent elections — including when Flanagan first ran alongside Gov. Tim Walz in 2018 — DFL primary voters have shown a willingness to buck their party's seal of approval.

Follow the money: While the endorsement unlocks resources and support from the party, Craig has so far amassed a campaign cash advantage over Flanagan.

• That could help Craig amplify her side's message — including her own efforts to call out ICE — as more voters tune in.

What we're watching: Craig recently ramped up criticism over the lieutenant governor's role in the Walz administration's handling of fraud — an issue many operatives see as a big political liability for Democrats statewide.

• Flanagan told the Star Tribune that Walz has "taken significant steps" to prevent more fraud and accused Craig of "using Republicans' playbook" for the attacks.

What's next: Campaign finance reports released in mid-April will give a better picture of where the candidates' cash reserves stand.

Shortly after U.S. Sen. Tina Smith announced she wasn't running, Democrat Rowan Wagner thought picking Craig as the nominee "just made sense."

• The 27-year-old paramedic told Axios that he didn't agree with Craig on everything, but he liked her insulin affordability push and that she'd won tough races in a crucial south metro swing seat.

Then, federal agents flooded Minnesota, and Wagner saw his patients face serious medical issues after delaying care out of fear.

• Fighting Trump's immigration agenda became his No. 1 issue.

Frustrated by Craig's Laken Riley vote, Wagner began volunteering for Flanagan's campaign. In February, he attended a precinct caucus for the first time and raised his hand to be a delegate for his local convention.

The big picture: Flanagan's backers say Wagner's story reflects a bigger trend of fresh faces showing up at DFL events— and breaking their way.

What they're saying: "I haven't seen this many new people at this level of convention since Obama," State Auditor Julie Blaha, a frequent Flanagan surrogate at rural meetings, told Axios.

• Blaha said her pitch, which frames the race as a "choice between push back and play along," is resonating deeply in those rooms.

The other side: Craig says giving ICE more authority under Trump was a mistake and that she believes voters will give her credit for "being honest, even when it's hard." Her boosters point to examples of how she too pushed back.

• "She's been very strong, calling out Kristi Noem, making sure she's at the Whipple Building, calling out the wrongdoing," Sen. Grant Hauschild (DFL-Hermantown) told Axios.

The fellow swing-district Democrat said he thinks Craig's record and proven "ability to far over perform" in a tough races will win over the broader DFL primary electorate.

• "The real issue here is that we as Democrats have to ultimately win if we don't want this federal overreach to continue," he said.

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