Democratic union leader Brian Nathan holds a narrow lead over former GOP State House Rep. Josie Tomkow in the race for State Senate District 14, according to unofficial results.

• As of last night, Nathan led Tomkow by 0.5% of roughly 80,000 ballots cast, which is the margin that triggers an automatic recount under state law.

Why it matters: A win by Nathan would reclaim a seat that Republicans flipped in 2022 and end a seven-month stretch in which the district's nearly 300,000 residents had no representation in Tallahassee.

• Lt. Gov. Jay Collins vacated the seat in August, and Gov. Ron DeSantis waited until October to call a special election to replace him.

Driving the news: Nathan overcame a voter registration deficit of about 23,000 and a major fundraising disadvantage. Republicans also outpaced Democrats in early voting turnout.

• Nathan told the Tampa Bay Times that he expected to be outraised, but said he wouldn't be outworked. His grassroots campaign also hit Tomkow for running in Hillsborough but living in Polk County.
• DeSantis may have held back from calling the special election because the district has a history of changing hands. Before Collins won the seat in 2022, former state Sen. Janet Cruz (D) held it.

Between the lines: A Navy veteran and union leader, Nathan entered the race in August and raised more than $100,000. He drew support from labor unions and Tampa City Council members Guido Maniscalco and Bill Carson.

• He touted his experience as an electrician to set himself apart from those in Tallahassee who he said "haven't gotten their hands dirty." He advocated for higher wages and more affordable housing.
• "The basic things that are necessities in your everyday life have become, or are becoming, unaffordable for a lot of people, and that's their major concern," Nathan told the Times.

Zoom out: Democrats also look poised to capture House District 87 in West Palm Beach — where President Trump cast his ballot — leading in two out of three special elections held on Tuesday.

What's next: Hillsborough County Election Supervisor Craig Latimer must order a recount if a candidate's margin of victory is within 0.5%, unless the trailing candidate requests in writing that it not take place.

• The winner of the recount will head to Tallahassee in April, where votes on the state budget and redistricting await.

Spread the word

More No Kings protests will hit Tampa Bay streets this weekend as part of a nationwide Day of Nonviolent Action.

The big picture: Progressive political groups, labor unions, and human and civil rights organizations expect Saturday's more than 3,000 demonstrations to surpass last year's No Kings rallies in June and October.

• The Twin Cities will serve as the flagship event, according to organizers, with U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, Joan Baez, Maggie Rogers, Jane Fonda and Bruce Springsteen scheduled to perform or speak.

Context: Minneapolis was thrust into the center of the Trump administration's aggressive deportation campaign this year after immigration officers fatally shot two U.S. citizens.

• Renee Nicole Good was killed by an ICE officer in January, just weeks before Border Patrol officers shot Alex Pretti.

State of play: Immigration will certainly be a rallying cry for many protesters, especially in cities like Chicago, Charlotte, and New Orleans, where ICE and Border Patrol conducted vast, seemingly random sweeps of immigrants.

• The war in Iran will also be driving people to the streets, the main organizers of Indivisible said on social media.

Zoom in: No Kings has mapped several events across Tampa Bay, including in St. Petersburg, Tampa, as far north as Brooksville and as far south as Venice.

Flashback: More than 5 million people participated in thousands of events last June for the inaugural No Kings events, organizers said.

• Participation swelled to 7 million for October's protest.
• Organizers are promoting Saturday's No Kings Day actions as one of the largest single-day nonviolent protests in U.S. history.

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🏈 Bucs linebacker Lavonte David announced his retirement yesterday after 14 years. (Tampa Bay Times)

🏙️ A company tied to the Kolter Group bought the Hilton St. Petersburg Bayfront hotel downtown. The Delray Beach developer is behind luxury high-rise projects, including Saltaire, Art House and One St. Petersburg. (Times)

• No redevelopment plans have been announced.

A St. Petersburg house fire that killed a teen was ruled arson by police. Investigators are asking anyone with information to contact police at 727-893-7780 or text SPPD plus their tip to TIP411. (Tampa Bay 28)

💸 First Friday, St. Pete's monthly downtown block party, is at risk of folding once again. Organizers pointed to increasing service fees levied by the city. (St. Pete Catalyst)

Some very fun, very Tampa Bay events are on the docket for this weekend.

• Here's a look:

🎨 Mainsail Art Festival: More than 250 painters, ceramicists, sculptors, jewelry makers and more will have their art on display — and up for sale — at this annual celebration of fine arts.

• Saturday and Sunday at Vinoy Park. Free, with food and drink available for purchase.

🏖️ Pier 60 Sugar Sand Festival: Clearwater's giant sand sculpture competition is back with live music, tons of food and craft vendors, and, of course, amazing sculptures tied to this year's theme, "United in Sand: Celebrating Sports & Spirit."

• Friday-April 12 on Clearwater Beach. Tickets are $16, with kids 5 and under free.

🎭 "Into the Woods" in the park: It's opening weekend for American Stage's annual outdoor show, this time featuring Stephen Sondheim's musical comedy classic.

• The 40-year tradition almost didn't go on due to rising costs and dwindling attendance, but fundraising saved the day.
• Tickets start at $43, with several options for premium seating. Performances run through April 26.

🌷 Orchid Festival: Shop thousands of orchids, stock up on supplies, and catch lectures on propagation, repotting and more.

• Saturday at Sunken Gardens. Free with gardens admission ($18 for adults, $15 for seniors and $8 for children 2-12).

Tell a friend

👋 Yacob here. I drove out to my precinct in Carrollwood yesterday to perform my civic duty and debut my new Kangol hat.

• Shout-out to reader Deborah Green, who asked to see it. You're a real one!