As crime has dropped over the last two decades, Florida's incarceration rate has largely stayed the same, and the share of elderly inmates has increased.

Driving the news: That's according to two reports released this month by the Florida Policy Project, a nonpartisan research group started by former St. Petersburg lawmaker Jeff Brandes that aims to provide evidence-based solutions to Florida's biggest problems.

Why it matters: Many of the 25,000 people released from Florida prisons each year will end up incarcerated again, the reports say, raising questions about the prison system's ability to rehabilitate people and driving up costs for taxpayers. It costs $77 a day, or $28,000 a year, to hold just one person in a state prison.

• The cost of incarcerating seniors, who are least likely to reoffend, costs roughly twice as much.

Yes, but: Florida can look to programs in other states to better reintegrate incarcerated people into society and cut down on the number of elderly inmates taxing the system, Brandes tells Axios.

By the numbers: There were about 82,000 inmates in Florida prisons last year, according to the most recent Department of Corrections annual report.

• About 29% of them were 50 and older in 2022 — 10% higher than the share of elderly people a decade ago, per the reports, which were authored by University of Central Florida criminal justice professor Thomas Baker.
• That's in line with national incarceration trends, which experts attribute to harsh sentencing laws in the 1980s and 90s that are keeping people in prison longer.
• Roughly a quarter of people released will end up back in prison within three years. Among people 60 and older, that rate is about 16%.

What they recommend: Like most states, Florida law allows people who are permanently incapacitated or terminally ill to seek release from prison, but several states also consider age as a condition for release.

• Such a program here "could result in millions of dollars in savings … with the least risk to public safety," per one of the reports, which also suggests creating a digital literacy program for older people leaving prison, among other recommendations.

What's next

📅 Upcoming events around the city.

19th Annual Wesley Chapel Fall Festival at the Tampa Premium Outlets on Saturday:

• Experience the ultimate fall extravaganza at the Tampa Premium Outlets. Activities include the Dreamland Amusements Carnival, trunk or treat, a wide array of food trucks, a pet costume contest, kids costume contest, a pumpkin patch, and an ultimate kids zone filled with inflatables and games.

Hosting an event? Email [email protected]

Florida has seen one of the nation's largest increases in abortions post-Roe, a first-of-its-kind study finds.

Driving the news: The number of monthly abortions in Florida increased by an average of 40% after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last summer, according to a new count from abortion rights group Society of Family Planning.

• The study is the first to encompass the full year since the SCOTUS ruling.

Why it matters: A string of state bans and restrictions on abortion hasn't lowered the overall abortion rate, according to the report.

• That could soon change because of newly enacted restrictions in states that border others with heavy abortion restrictions.

By the numbers: Florida averaged 7,705 abortions per month from July 2022 through June 2023, up by an average of more than 1,700 compared to April and May 2022.

• That's an estimated cumulative increase of 20,460 abortions over the course of the year.

The big picture: The number of legal abortions across the U.S. increased in the year after the SCOTUS reversal. But it decreased sharply in states with total bans or sharp restrictions on the procedure, Axios' Jason Millman reports.

Between the lines: Many of the states with large increases border those with abortion bans and serve as access points for people traveling out of state, the report notes.

• North Carolina and Florida in particular have been major access points in the South, where abortion is heavily restricted.

What we're watching: The Florida Supreme Court's ruling in a lawsuit challenging the state's current 15-week abortion ban. That outcome will determine whether a six-week ban approved earlier this year by the Legislature and governor will go into effect.

Go deeper

🗳️ A former Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority employee is the latest Pinellas Democrat to join the race against Republican U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna. (Tampa Bay Times)

💔 Lovebugs typically swarm Florida in May and again in September, but residents have reported fewer sightings in recent years, according to a University of Florida entomologist. (Weather.com)

👀 A Florida lawmaker and longtime Gov. Ron DeSantis supporter has endorsed Donald Trump for president. Brevard County Rep. Randy Fine broke with the governor over his handling of rising antisemitic incidents across the state. (Tallahassee Democrat)

You know that sparkly feeling you get when someone gives you a compliment?

• There's nothing like that feeling when a stranger says about your outfit, your parking job or even just your vibe.

Why it matters: Axios lifestyle reporter Carly Mallenbaum is working on a story about the power of a simple compliment and is looking for your help.

Share the love: If you've received a memorable compliment, we want to hear about it. Tell us who said it and why the comment stuck with you.

• Hit reply or email Carly at [email protected]. We may feature your story in a future newsletter.