Axios Sneak Peek

December 12, 2023
Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevityβ’ count: 1,093 words ... 4 minutes.
β‘ Situational awareness: Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) told NBC News there will be no deal this week on Ukraine aid and border security, and that nothing Ukrainian President Zelensky says in tomorrow's visit to Capitol Hill will change minds.
1 big thing: Biden impeachment's shaky foundation
Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
House Republicans' impeachment inquiry into President Biden is predicated on allegations about the firing of a Ukrainian prosecutor that have been debunked β under oath β by at least nine government witnesses.
Why it matters: The House will vote this week on formally authorizing the inquiry β the prelude to what many expect will become articles of impeachment against Biden for bribery, abuse of power and obstruction.
- House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) confirmed as much last week, telling reporters that possible "impeachable offenses" mainly center on the alleged "quid pro quo" in Ukraine in early 2016.
- Republicans say then-Vice President Biden freelanced by withholding a $1 billion U.S. loan guarantee until Ukraine fired prosecutor general Viktor Shokin β and that he did so to protect his son Hunter, who was serving on the board of Ukrainian gas company Burisma.
The big picture: The facts surrounding the Bidens, Burisma and Shokin have been well-established over the course of two major congressional investigations: the first impeachment of former President Trump and a Senate probe led by Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Ron Johnson (R-Wis.).
- Republicans frequently point to a 2018 video in which Biden boasts about withholding the loan guarantee, and say the timing is suspicious because Burisma executives had just asked Hunter Biden to help alleviate government pressure, according to his business partner Devon Archer.
- But Shokin's deputy says the office was not investigating Burisma at the time, and the Senate report found no evidence that Hunter Biden's board position β while highly unethical β influenced U.S. policy.
What they're saying: Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch was one of four Trump impeachment witnesses who testified that it was "official U.S. policy" β supported by international stakeholders β to push for Shokin's removal.
- Trump's former special envoy to Ukraine Kurt Volker β a Republican-called witness β testified that the allegations against Biden were "not credible."
- Former State Department official George Kent testified that Shokin had undermined a U.S. program β funded with "taxpayer money" β to "build an independent investigator unit to go after corrupt prosecutors."
- David Holmes, a former diplomat in Ukraine, testified that his understanding was that Shokin "was not at that time pursuing investigations of Burisma or the Bidens."
At least five more State Department witnesses β Geoffrey Pyatt, Amos Hochstein, Victoria Nuland, David Wade and Antony Blinken β independently confirmed those facts in the 2020 Senate investigation.
Between the lines: House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) deflected last month when asked whether the witnesses who testified about Shokin's ouster committed perjury or should be brought back for additional questioning.
The other side: A House Oversight Committee aide stressed the broader nature of the impeachment inquiry, telling Axios that Republicans have "unearthed evidence of the Biden family cashing in on their last name to rake in millions from China, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan."
2. π° Last-minute tax push
Photo: Nathan Howard/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Members of the House and Senate are engaged in advanced, last-minute negotiations to reach a tax deal in December or January that includes key priorities for both parties, Axios' Hans Nichols and Juliegrace Brufke report.
Why it matters: Heading into the 2024 election, Democrats want to resurrect a version of the child tax credit, which expired last year, to lower childhood poverty and give their vulnerable members a tangible policy win.
- Republicans are eager to prove to the business community that the House GOP majority can deliver for them by reinstating the full deductibility of research and development investments that expired at the end of 2022.
- Any compromise between the key tax writing committees would have to be prioritized by House and Senate leaders. At an estimated $100 billion, it would also be expensive.
The intrigue: The twin provisions have supporters in both parties, with conservative groups making a pro-family argument for the CTC last month and many Democrats insisting they want to help the business community.
Driving the news: Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith (R-Mo.) are working on a package that can clear the House either in December or January.
- "Talks are further along than most people realize," said a senior GOP lawmaker. "All parties are aware that a December timeline is difficult, but that there is a window early next year."
3. π½ Iowa debate in peril

The final GOP presidential debate before the Iowa caucuses may not happen, Axios' Alex Thompson reports:
- Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley hasn't committed to participating, while Vivek Ramaswamy and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie aren't on pace to qualify.
- Only Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has agreed to participate in the CNN debate and is set to make the stage.
Why it matters: The Jan. 10 debate would be the last high-profile event for any of the candidates to make a splash before the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 15, as a new poll shows Trump holding a historic lead over the rest of the field.
Between the lines: Haley has been noncommittal on the prospect of facing one-on-one DeSantis ahead of Iowa, even as she has also been calling on Trump to break his debate boycott.
- "You can't have an election and not appear on a debate stage in front of the people who are going to be voting for you," she argued.
- The debate is particularly critical for DeSantis, who has predicted he will win the Iowa caucuses.
4. π Politics and prosecutions
Former Rep. George Santos. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
Four big developments today in legal cases involved high-profile figures in U.S. politics:
- The Supreme Court agreed to fast-track consideration of whether Trump has presidential immunity on charges related to his attempts to overturn the 2020 election, following a request from special counsel Jack Smith.
- Hunter Biden asked a judge to toss out his federal gun charges in Delaware, arguing the prosecution should be voided by the plea deal and "diversion agreement" that collapsed in July.
- Former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) is "engaged in plea negotiations" with federal prosecutors to potentially avoid a trial on fraud charges, according to a court filing.
- A civil trial in D.C. kicked off to determine how much Rudy Giuliani must pay two Georgia election workers after he was found liable of defaming them with false claims of voter fraud.
π¬ Thanks for reading tonight. This newsletter was edited by Kathie Bozanich.


