In three critical arenas — the halls of Congress, European capitals and on the battlefield — Ukraine's war effort has encountered a storm of stalemates that pose an existential crisis to the country's future.

Why it matters: With much of the world's attention focused on Israel and Gaza, President Biden and NATO's pledge to support Ukraine for "as long as it takes" is at serious risk. The implications could be devastating for Kyiv's democracy.

Driving the news: The White House warned this morning that without congressional action, the U.S. government will run out of resources to support Ukraine by the end of the year.

• "There is no magical pot of funding available to meet this moment. We are out of money — and nearly out of time," Office of Management and Budget director Shalanda Young wrote to congressional leaders.
• Bipartisan Senate talks on a border package paired with Ukraine funding reached a breaking point over the weekend, with no further meetings currently scheduled, congressional sources tell Axios' Stef Kight.
• Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will remotely join a classified briefing with senators tomorrow. An initial vote on a Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and border funding package will be held Wednesday, but it's expected to fail without GOP support.

Leaders of the European Union — which some Republicans say should bear more of the burden for supporting Ukraine — are embroiled in a budget dispute that could threaten €50 billion ($54.2 billion) in funding for Kyiv.

• Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, emboldened by the far-right's shocking victory in the Dutch elections last month, has demanded that opening talks about Ukraine's accession to the EU be removed from the agenda for the Dec. 14-15 European Council summit.
• Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna recently described the upcoming summit as an "existential moment" for her country's future.

On the battlefield, Russian President Vladimir Putin's bet that his invading forces could outlast Western political will appears to be paying off.

• "There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough" without technological advancements, Ukraine's top commander told The Economist in a frank assessment of his counteroffensive last month.
• A Washington Post deep dive found that cheap drones, an "ocean" of Russian mines, Putin's willingness to endure massive casualties, and Ukraine's lack of air power have contributed to the stalemate.

Between the lines: Democrats involved in the Senate negotiations say talks have stalled because Republicans are unwilling to compromise on their desire to codify Trump-era border policies in exchange for Ukraine aid.

• GOP sources deny the talks are "dead" and say Democrats have long known significant border reforms would be a prerequisite to any Ukraine deal.
• That's especially true in the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has signaled that nothing short of H.R. 2 — the GOP's sweeping, hardline border security package — would be acceptable.

The bottom line: Posturing from both sides is inevitable in any negotiation. But when it comes to war, politics as usual can carry life-or-death consequences.

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The Biden administration is making an economic appeal to Republicans skeptical of supporting aid to Ukraine, releasing data that shows some of the biggest defense contracts related to the war effort are located in red states, Axios' Hans Nichols and Stef report.

• The Pentagon has been circulating a map on Capitol Hill that breaks down U.S. spending on weapons systems, equipment and munitions by state, Politico first reported.

By the numbers: Six of the top 10 states receiving investment from four previous Ukraine packages are in states that former President Trump won in 2020.

• A total of $2.3 billion has been invested in Arkansas, which ranks No. 1 in the country.
• Arizona and Pennsylvania — critical swing states that Biden managed to flip in 2020 by slim margins — come in at No. 2 and No. 3.

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Trump's performance in the polls has triggered a surge in mainstream media reporting on his unprecedented plans for expanding and weaponizing executive power in a potential second term:

• The New York Times has led the way with a multi-part series on Trump's threats to "upend core elements of American governance, democracy, foreign policy and the rule of law," a continuation of Jonathan Swan's reporting for Axios on the former president's plans to purge the federal bureaucracy.
• The Atlantic today unveiled the first tranche of stories for its January-February issue examining the "threat a second term poses to American democracy," with 24 contributors exploring topics that include immigration, NATO, climate change and journalism.
• The Washington Post published a 6,000-word op-ed by Robert Kagan last week titled: "A Trump dictatorship is increasingly inevitable. We should stop pretending."

Trump and his allies have taken notice.

• "This is nothing more than another version of the media's failed and false Russia collusion hoax," Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said of The Atlantic takeover.
• "All of these articles calling Trump a dictator are about one thing: legitimizing illegal and violent conduct as we get closer to the election," tweeted Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio). "Everyone needs to take a chill pill."

Days after his historic expulsion from Congress, former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) has begun churning out $200 videos on Cameo, a site that allows users to request personalized messages from celebrities.

• Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) dipped into campaign funds to solicit Santos' advice for his "ethically challenged" colleague "Bobby" — also known as Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.).
• "You stand your ground, sir, and don't get bogged down by all the haters out there," an unsuspecting Santos urges the indicted senator.

Menendez told NBC News in response to the stunt: "Well, I don't think Mr. Clickbait's donors will appreciate him enriching George Santos, because I understand he paid for it. And I'm amazed he didn't ask his mom and dad for the money."

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