There's a gaping divide in the Democratic Party between institutional public opinion — party leaders, lawmakers, donors, consultants — and the actual voters who ultimately decide elections, recent polling shows.

Why it matters: President Biden has all but erased internal Democratic Party criticism. But only three postwar presidents had lower approval ratings than Biden at this point in their presidency.

• Biden's job approval rating is 43%, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average.
• Nearly half (45%) of Americans had no confidence in Biden's ability to make the right decisions for the country's future, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll just before the State of the Union.
• Only 16% of respondents in the poll said they were better off financially than when Biden became president — compared to 41% who said they were worse off.

Zoom in: Doubts about Biden's age (80) have all but vanished from institutional Democrats' public conversation. The DNC has neutralized the influence of Iowa and New Hampshire, where an intraparty rebellion could have started.

• Even once-skeptical progressives, like Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), have jumped on the Biden bandwagon — even though most of their agenda didn't pass with Democratic majorities in Congress.

Zoom out: Public perception of the economy's health will be a major factor in Biden's political standing. Biden used his SOTU address to tout the economy's resilience — pointing to record-low unemployment and claiming the fastest economic growth in 40 years.

• But worries about persistent inflation persist. Just 20% of Americans rated the economy as "excellent" or "good" in last week's Fox News poll.

Reality check: Biden's biggest ally is the unpopularity of the GOP opposition — particularly former President Trump.

• Democrats overperformed in last year's midterms: Whatever hesitations voters held toward Biden, Republican candidates were viewed as too extreme.
• The divisions among Republicans over spending cuts and changes to Social Security and Medicare, highlighted in the GOP's heated response to Biden's address, will also be a useful foil for the White House in making the next election a choice more than a referendum.

The bottom line: The vibes in Washington are growing bullish on Biden's re-election prospects. But polling shows voters aren't optimistic about their own economic futures. And a majority of Democrats want a new standard-bearer for 2024.

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Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is teasing her anticipated presidential campaign launch next week by leaning heavily into her foreign policy experience as ambassador to the U.N. under Trump.

Why it matters: Haley's opening message leans into foreign policy at a time when many Republicans are focused on domestic issues.

• It also underscores her hawkishness in a field in which a front-running Trump is painting himself as an anti-war dove — and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has been nearly silent on foreign policy.

The video (from her Stand for America PAC) features Haley calling America "the greatest force for good in human history, and we should never be ashamed to say that."

• Another soundbite features Haley at the U.N. saying she's "taking names."

Between the lines: Former Trump Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is also considering a presidential campaign centered on his foreign policy bona fides.

Haley is announcing her presidential campaign on Wednesday in Charleston, S.C. She'll be the first Republican candidate other than Trump to enter the race.

• That gives her first crack at consolidating donor money and building early momentum in polls.

🥊 Reality check: The risk for Haley is if other like-minded traditional Republicans — Mike Pence, Pompeo or Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina — enter the race and splinter establishment support.

As he mulls a presidential campaign, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) argues the country needs a competent conservative manager as president more than a fighter.

• "You always have to be willing to fight as a leader. But I think you've got to be sure you're a manager first," Sununu told Axios in an interview at the National Governors Association winter meeting.
• "I think America as a whole is looking for results-driven leadership that calls the balls and strikes like they see them and is super transparent."

Notable quotable: Drawing a contrast with DeSantis, who has used the power of government to advance conservative priorities on education, Sununu said:

• "We all hate this cancel culture that's out there. Those are societal issues in this country that have to be taken on. But it isn't the government that's going to come and solve that problem."

Sununu recently launched a 501(c)4 committee, Live Free or Die, that allows him to raise unlimited money from donors as he explores a presidential campaign.

But he doesn't sound fully committed.

• "Maybe it's us leading the charge — maybe not," Sununu said in our interview. "But we're definitely going to be part of that conversation, and hopefully we're making the candidates better versions of themselves."
• Sununu added that any presidential candidate who doesn't have a path to victory by October or November should drop out — a nod to concerns that too many GOP candidates could end up boosting Trump.

Go deeper: Sununu slammed Biden for demoting New Hampshire from its first-in-the-nation Democratic primary status, and predicted that he'll face a serious primary opponent in New Hampshire next year.

• "The opportunity is wide open for someone to come in and crush it in the New Hampshire primary," Sununu said. "Nobody cares about the sanctions or whatever they do. Nobody cares about that."

1. "McConnell knocks GOP Sen. Rick Scott's plan to sunset federal programs amid sparring over entitlements" (NBC News)

• Why it matters: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell continues to show no confidence in Scott, whose national ambitions have regularly clashed with party imperatives. McConnell's decision to highlight Scott's political vulnerability on Social Security and Medicare changes is curious, given that Scott may end up as the only GOP senator facing a competitive re-election in 2024.

2. "Pa. Dems win special elections to capture state House" (Pluribus News)

• Why it matters: Democrats are taking control of the Pennsylvania state House for the first time in over a decade. The most intriguing development is whether Democrats will keep moderate state House Speaker Mark Rozzi in charge. They may look to a progressive alternative like Democratic floor leader Joanna McClinton, who would be the state's first Black woman speaker.

3. "House votes to block D.C. bills on noncitizen voting, criminal code" (Washington Post)

• Why it matters: Crime was one of the GOP's most effective midterm issues. So it was notable that 31 House Democrats joined the Republican majority to block changes to the D.C. criminal code that would reduce penalties for certain crimes. One of the 31 Democrats who voted with Republicans was Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) — who was assaulted in her apartment elevator the morning of the vote.