Axios Sneak Peek

October 29, 2024
We've got news. 945 words, a 3.5-minute read.
- 😬 Johnson's ex-GOP migraine
- 🚨 Anti-trans ads spree
- 👀 Scoop: House GOP's save-the-date
- 🌶 Spiciest district of 2024
1 big thing: 😬 Johnson's ex-GOP migraine

Some of Mike Johnson's most prominent former colleagues are now effectively working to take away his gavel.
Why it matters: They're technically #NeverTrump. In practice, they're #anti-Mike.
- 🥊 Sure, cross-aisle endorsements happen, but they rarely trickle down to lowly House lawmakers fighting for reelection.
- This year is different. The blast radius of anti-Trump animus is much wider.
- The vitriol and velocity of #NeverTrump Republicans endorsing Democrats is also surprising.
NEWS: Former Reps. Barbara Comstock (R-Va.), Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), Denver Riggleman (R-Va.), Dave Trott (R-Mich.) and Joe Walsh (R-Ill.) endorsed Democrat Janelle Stelson in a letter we scooped today.
- They slammed Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), for his right-wing voting record and involvement in efforts to overturn the 2020 election.
- "We know how difficult it is to vote for a member of the other political party, but having known and worked with Scott Perry, we urge our fellow Republicans to join us in supporting his opponent," they wrote.
Zoom in: Comstock spearheaded the letter and has been particularly active in supporting down-ballot Democrats.
- Hakeem Jeffries praised Comstock as "such an American patriot" after she appeared yesterday at an event for House candidate Eugene Vindman and other Democrats in Virginia.
- Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) thanked Comstock for "honoring the oath that she's previously taken to our Constitution ... and for supporting people like Eugene."
- Another increasingly prolific endorser of congressional Democrats is former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), who is backing Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.) and John Avlon, the Democrat running against Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.).
Between the lines: Cheney has gone as far as to publicly spar with Johnson — her onetime deputy when she was House GOP Conference chair — and cast him as essentially unfit to be House speaker.
- Cheney and Johnson engaged in a tense text exchange after Cheney publicly called out her former colleague, we scooped last week.
The bottom line: Examples of the reverse — Democrats or former Democrats backing Republicans — are fewer and farther between.
- Ann Ashford, the widow of former Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford (D-Neb.), has endorsed Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) for reelection to her late husband's seat.
- Former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) — who, like Riggleman and Walsh, is now an independent — has endorsed several Republican congressional candidates as well as Trump.
— Andrew Solender and Hans Nichols
2. 🚨 Anti-trans ads spree

The Mitch McConnell-linked Senate Leadership Fund has spent $54 million in recent months on ads slamming Democrats over support for transgender athletes and gender-affirming care for kids.
Why it matters: Senate races are an epicenter of the fight over trans rights.
- "It's the social issue that Democrats are furthest away from the center of America on," Mike Berg, NRSC spokesperson, told Axios.
- Gender-affirming care is backed as medically necessary by leading health groups like the American Medical Association and the American Academy of Pediatrics. That care rarely involves surgery for minors, even for older teens.
🚨 Since mid-July, Republicans have spent over $77 million on ads about transgender issues in races in 10 states, according to AdImpact data as of Oct. 24.
- Their top spend is in Ohio, where SLF has spent a whopping $32 million for ads saying Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) allowed "trans biological men in girls locker rooms" and "sex change surgery for kids."
- Advocacy groups argue that GOP anti-trans messaging is not effective in influencing voters' decisions, but could endanger trans people.
⚡️ Democrats have spent $9 million to refute the GOP attacks or hit back at Republican opposition to broader LGBTQ rights.
- An ad from the Brown campaign called the GOP attacks a "complete lie" and asked voters to "reject the lies."
- In Texas, Democratic nominee Colin Allred released an ad responding to attacks from Sen. Ted Cruz, saying: "Let me be clear: I don't want boys playing girls' sports, or any of this ridiculous stuff Ted Cruz is saying."
- Groups supporting Cruz have spent $15.8 million on aggressive ads bashing support for transgender athletes competing in women's sports.
— Stef Kight and Stephen Neukam
3. 👀 House GOP's save-the-date

House Republicans will vote on their leaders for next year on Nov. 13, the day after they get back for the lame-duck session, we scooped earlier this evening.
- Members have a Nov. 12 deadline to inform GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y) if they plan to run for a leadership position.
- A rules organizing conference is set for Nov. 14, with a ratification of the GOP's rules on Nov. 15, according to a notice circulated today to members.
— Juliegrace Brufke
4. 🌶 Spiciest district of 2024

The most sneakily competitive district in the country sure seems to be Nebraska's 2nd District, which includes Omaha and the surrounding metro area.
Why it matters: The GOP's failed effort to get rid of its electoral college vote-splitting has left two of its incumbents at the mercy of repeated rallies from the Harris presidential campaign.
- House: GOP Rep. Don Bacon is in a "toss-up" against Democratic challenger state Sen. Tony Vargas.
- Senate: Republican incumbent Deb Fischer is up by just 2 percentage points over independent challenger Dan Osborn in the newest NYT/Siena poll.
- White House: Harris leads the latest polls by the high single digits. Biden won in '20. Trump won in '16. Obama won in '12.
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