Many of the GOP's leading Senate recruits are speaking out against U.S. support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia — sounding a downright isolationist note and breaking from the views of party leaders.

Why it matters: The emerging Ukraine rhetoric from up-and-coming Republican candidates is a sign of where the party's foreign policy views are headed.

• Such skepticism of U.S. engagement is still a minority opinion among Republican elected leaders, but it is now embraced by the GOP's top two candidates for president (former President Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis).
• Calling for defunding American military aid to Ukraine is becoming something of a litmus test within contested GOP primaries — a far cry from Republicans' instinctive hawkishness in the post-9/11 era.

The latest: Trump yesterday called on Republicans in Congress to “refuse to authorize a single additional shipment” of weapons to Ukraine until "the FBI, DOJ and IRS hand over" evidence in the House’s Biden family investigation.

Zoom out: Former Vice President Mike Pence, who recently returned from Ukraine, was booed at an evangelical event in Iowa — moderated by former Fox News host Tucker Carlson — over his support for Ukraine's defense against Russian aggression.

• Pence, a traditional conservative hawk, now trails entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy — who has campaigned on fully ending U.S. support for Ukraine — in FiveThirtyEight's national primary polling average.

Driving the news: Former Navy SEAL and businessman Tim Sheehy, the party-backed candidate challenging Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), raised eyebrows in a statement this month in which he called for the U.S. to end its involvement in Ukraine and "compel an immediate peaceful outcome."

Between the lines: That's a sharp reversal from Sheehy's position before he jumped in the race. Just last year, Sheehy wrote on his LinkedIn page: "Sweden and Finland are next? We've seen this movie before ... stop him now before the price tag for putting [Russian President Vladimir] Putin down will be a lot higher."

• Sheehy faces the possibility of a primary challenge against Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.), an outspoken isolationist in the House who introduced legislation prohibiting further aid to Ukraine until America's southern border is secured.

Go deeper: Sam Brown, the party's favored candidate in the Nevada Senate race, is a decorated military veteran whose injuries in Afghanistan have turned him deeply skeptical of American military engagement abroad.

• "At a time where there’s so much domestic unease on so many issues, the media and our politicians want to turn our eyes to places like Ukraine or Afghanistan," Brown said during his unsuccessful 2022 Senate campaign.

Zoom in: Businessman Bernie Moreno, the fundraising leader in a competitive Ohio Senate primary, also sounded a skeptical note on Ukraine funding in a recent interview with Breitbart News.

• "We spent [trillions] in the Middle East since 9/11, and what did we get for it? Nothing. Everything is objectively worse. So we can't allow that to happen in Eastern Europe," Moreno said.
• Moreno was endorsed by Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), one of the Senate's leading critics of Ukraine aid, in a three-way race to take on Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio).
• Both Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose and state Sen. Matt Dolan — Moreno's primary opponents — have expressed unequivocal support for Ukraine in its efforts to fend off Russian aggression.

By the numbers: A Pew Research poll in June found 44% of Republican or GOP-leaning voters believe the U.S. is providing too much aid to Ukraine. Just 34% believe it's "about right" or "not enough." That's the highest level of GOP skepticism for Ukraine aid since the war began.

The bottom line: Republican leadership is still solidly behind supporting Ukraine — but the party's grassroots are moving in the opposite direction.

• If that trend continues, expect newly elected Republicans to sound more like Trump and Vance than Pence.

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A new Monmouth University survey found that a clear plurality of Republican voters believe Trump would mount a stronger challenge to President Biden than DeSantis.

Why it matters: One of the main arguments advanced by DeSantis allies is that he'd be a more electable candidate than Trump. There's little evidence that's the case.

By the numbers: Nearly half (47%) of Republican voters said Trump would be a stronger challenger than DeSantis. Just 22% thought DeSantis would be more electable.

• Trump has a higher net favorability score than DeSantis among Republicans. Their unfavorable rating (18%) is exactly the same.
• Trump holds a 32-point edge over DeSantis (54%-22%) in the ballot test — with DeSantis making no headway since the last Monmouth poll, conducted just after his announcement.

Between the lines: Another favored argument by the DeSantis camp — that he's more effective at getting things done — is also falling flat with Republican voters, according to the survey.

• Half (49%) of Republican respondents thought Trump would be more able to get things done than DeSantis. Only 19% said DeSantis would be more effective.

Go deeper: The poll's best news for Trump is how unconcerned Republican voters are over his criminal indictments.

• Nearly three-quarters of GOP voters are either "not at all concerned" (47%) or "not too concerned" (25%) about the president's legal predicament.
• Trump has gained ground in the FiveThirtyEight polling average since the first indictment.

The bottom line: Over half of Republicans consider themselves part of the MAGA movement, while 39% say they don't.

• That alone is the biggest hurdle for any traditional Republican — like Pence or Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina.

Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) told HuffPost that Trump is the strongest Republican candidate the GOP could field against Biden.

• "Watching DeSantis turn into [former Wisconsin Gov. and 2016 GOP presidential candidate] Scott Walker and get liquidated by Trump's machine, I respect Trump in terms of how formidable he would be in Pennsylvania," Fetterman said.
• "You still see Trump signs everywhere in Pennsylvania, and you have to respect Trump's strength," he added. He concluded Biden is still the slight favorite against Trump in his home state — but it would be a close race.

Fetterman's public views are aligned with the emerging private sentiment at the White House, according to a Rolling Stone report:

• "Some of Biden's closest confidants have in recent weeks told the president that DeSantis has performed so poorly in the primary, that the governor would likely be notably weaker than the twice-indicted Trump."

1. "A Very Narrow Electoral College Playing Field" (Cook Political Report)

Why it matters: The narrow band of toss-up states in the next presidential election — Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — underscores how competitive the general election will be, with or without Trump.

• The first two are traditional Republican strongholds that have turned purple because of the growing and diversifying population.
• The latter two are part of the Democrats' once-vaunted blue wall that has gotten shakier as blue-collar, white voters have grown disillusioned with the progressive turn of the Democratic Party.

2. "Abigail Spanberger tells Democrats she will run for governor" (Politico)

• The congresswoman's expected candidacy for Virginia governor opens up a classic bellwether district outside D.C. — one that leans Biden (backing him by seven points in 2020) but is competitive, especially with a mainstream Republican nominee.
• Keep an eye on GOP attorney and military veteran Derrick Anderson, who finished second in last year's Republican primary. Republican officials view him as a top-tier recruit who can put the swing seat in play.