Americans born to low-income families are generally faring worse than the previous generation in most cities, including Seattle, a new analysis finds. But there are some bright spots in the Emerald City as well.

Why it matters: Intergenerational mobility — the idea that a generation will do better than the one before them — is core to the American dream, but it's far from guaranteed.

Driving the news: Seattleites born in 1992 have a lower average household income, adjusted for 2023 dollars, than those born in 1978, according to a study from the Census Bureau and Opportunity Insights, a research group at Harvard University.

By the numbers: Seattleites born to low-income families in 1992 were earning $32,800 at age 27 compared to the $33,300 that people born in 1978 were making when they were 27, according to the report.

• But that decrease of 1.5% is smaller than the national average of 4.2%, researchers found.

The big picture: By 1992, upward mobility for low-income white children in coastal states and in the Southwest fell to rates on par with Appalachia, per the report.

Zoom in: White children born to low-income households in Seattle in 1992 earned 3.2% less than their counterparts from 1978.

• By contrast, Black, Hispanic, Asian and Native Americans kids born in 1992 to low-income households in Seattle saw income rise by 14%, 8.5%, 3.1% and 17%, respectively, compared to people born in 1978, per the report.
• Black and Native American children born in 1992 to the very poorest households in Seattle had higher incomes by as much as 23% and 21%, respectively, compared to their 1978 counterparts, the analysis found.

Yes, but: Black children born in 1992 still had poorer prospects overall of rising up than white children in most of America, because initial Black-white disparities were so large, the researchers wrote.

Go deeper: You can explore more data about intergenerational mobility at The Opportunity Atlas.

Go deeper

Democrats are still fighting to avoid being shut out of the race for Washington's public lands commissioner, more than a week after the Aug. 6 primary election.

Why it matters: Under Washington's top-two primary, two members of the same party can advance to the general election — an outcome that looked more than possible in early vote counts, when two Republicans were in the lead.

The latest: In the latest results from the Aug. 6 vote-by-mail election, Democrat Dave Upthegrove, a King County Council member, was about 2,300 votes ahead of Republican Sue Kuehl Pederson, a retired utility analyst and former power manager.

• If those results hold, Upthegrove will advance to the November ballot, along with former Republican U.S. Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, who had amassed about 22% of the primary vote as of Wednesday.

Yes, but: Upthegrove told Axios Wednesday that he still considers the race too close to call, and that the second-place finish may come down to only a few hundred votes.

By the numbers: As of Wednesday, Upthegrove was capturing about 20.9% of the vote to Pederson's roughly 20.8%.

• If the margin between the two candidates falls below 2,000 votes and less than 0.5%, it will trigger a mandatory recount under state law.

Context: The state commissioner of public lands position is open because the current officeholder, Democrat Hilary Franz, unsuccessfully ran for Congress instead of seeking re-election.

Flashback: Herrera Beutler lost her seat in Congress in 2022 after being one of 10 House Republicans to vote to impeach former President Trump.

What we're watching: Whether Pederson manages to claw her way back in the next few days.

Share the news

📉 King County Metro remains one of the slowest-to-recover transit agencies in the nation with average weekday ridership this spring at only about 64% of 2019 levels. (The Urbanist)

🚎 Seattle's South Lake Union streetcars are down indefinitely as mechanics wait for control units and high-voltage breakers to replace damaged parts at an electric substation that feeds power to the trains. (Seattle Times)

✈️ Alaska Airlines flight attendants have rejected a three-year tentative labor agreement that would have offered an average pay increase of 32%. (Reuters)

Looks like it might be a little chilly this weekend, with highs in the mid-70s and a chance of thunderstorms on Saturday.

• But that's fine going-out weather for Seattleites, who know to pack parkas year-round.

Today

🎶 Head to Volunteer Park for a 6pm concert at the amphitheater, featuring Mokoomba and LeRoy Bell and His Only Friends. Bring a picnic and a blanket. Reserve your free tickets here.

Tomorrow

Get pumped with Kane Brown, whose lively electronic-pop-country hit "Miles On It" belongs on summer car trip playlists. The lineup includes Chris Young, LoCash and RaeLynn. 6:30pm at T-Mobile Park. Tickets start around $30.

Saturday

🥁 Venture over to Bainbridge Island for a brain-stretching session of avant-garde music from Cacophony — with cellist Lori Goldston, experimental free-noise act Spawn, percussionist Style King of the Week, beat artists Casey Adams and Hannah Rice and progressive jazz act Mission Drift.

• Bainbridge Island Museum of Art. 6–10pm. $32.

⚽️ Support the Seattle Sounders as they face off against rivals LAFC in the Leagues Cup quarterfinals at Lumen Field. 5pm. Tickets start at $34.

Sunday

🌹 Get inked at the Seattle Tattoo Expo, or just marvel at the work of some of Seattle's most celebrated tattooists and the display of body art on hundreds of attendees. Seattle Center Exhibition. Friday through Sunday. Admission is $30 for one day, $70 for all three days.

Tell a friend