California's fastest growing counties are in the state's inland areas, while some of its biggest metro areas are seeing the biggest population decreases, per an Axios analysis of the latest census data.

Why it matters: The zoomed-in analysis offers a closer look at population change within states — for instance, that the booming growth in Texas is driven by its major cities, while many of its rural counties are shrinking.

Driving the news: San Diego County's population shrunk by 20,051 people from 2014-2018 to 2019-2023, or a change of 0.6%.

• Los Angeles County's population decreased by 2.5% and San Francisco County's fell by 3.9% during that same time.
• Sacramento County grew by 4.9% during that period, while Riverside County led southern California with its 2.8% growth rate.

Zoom in: San Diego's natural population change — the difference between births and deaths — was positive in 2023.

• But more people moved away than moved here during that time, so the region's overall population shrunk.

Between the lines: At the national level, international immigration is the primary driver of population change, with migration accounting for 84% of the country's growth between 2023 and 2024.

What's next: Population trends nationally and in San Diego could be notably affected by President-elect Trump's plan to deport millions of people.

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2025 may bring more homes, but with familiar high prices.

Why it matters: Many people will remain locked out of homeownership. 

Catch up quick: San Diego County saw new listings, monthly inventory and median sales prices rise last year, according to real estate data through November 2024.

• Still, limited supply that can't meet demand and expensive starter homes helped keep housing in the region far more unaffordable than most of the country.

Here's what experts and industry pros predict is in store next year for mortgage rates, new builds, moves, and more.

📈 Rates will remain above 6%

U.S. mortgage rates are expected to be in the low- to mid-6% range at the end of 2025, according to Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale.

• Redfin's economists forecast rates to stay higher, near 7%.

Between the lines: "We're not going to see a big change in the affordability picture," Hale tells Axios.

• "It's still going to be challenging to get into the housing market," especially for first-time buyers, she says.

Lower mortgage rates could also reel in more buyers, raising competition and prices.

🏘️ More new homes

Chief economist Lawrence Yun at the National Association of Realtors expects more single-family new builds.

• "There is still a housing shortage, and homebuilders are making good profits to continue expansion," he says.

🔓Fewer "locked-in" homeowners

The mortgage "lock-in" effect, which has contributed to the housing market's woes by discouraging homeowners from moving, won't disappear next year — but it will lessen, Hale says.

By the numbers: In mid-2024, 84% of homeowners with a mortgage had a rate under 6%, down from 89% a year earlier, per a Realtor.com analysis.

• Hale expects that share to fall to 75% by the end of 2025, as more people choose to part with their current home loan.

What else experts predict

✋ County officials received a letter last month from America First Legal Foundation, led by President-elect Trump advisor Stephen Miller, warning them they were a "sanctuary jurisdiction" and they could be held "criminally liable" for impeding federal immigration law. (CalMatters)

• County Board Chair Nora Vargas, who is resigning, issued a response arguing a recently adopted board policy complies with state and federal laws.

🏃🏾‍♀️ San Diego City Councilmember Vivian Moreno announced on X that she is running for the seat Vargas is vacating.

• Imperial Beach Mayor Paloma Aguirre, who has been on the front lines of the cross-border sewage crisis, also announced her plan to run for the seat.
• Chula Vista Mayor John McCann previously told Voice of San Diego he was seriously considering a run.

🇲🇽 Mexico is planning its response to Trump's promised mass deportations, including opening migrant shelters along the border and creating a mobile app that will notify consulates in the U.S. of impending enforcement. (Union-Tribune)

We're not rushing it, but for those eager to get rid of your Christmas tree, there's a sustainable way to do it. 

Why it matters: San Diego's recycling program turns our festive firs into compost, wood chips and mulch products rather than letting them rot in a landfill.

Driving the news: City residents can drop off their whole, undecorated trees at 16 locations through Jan. 16.

• For curbside collection, cut your tree to fit into the organic waste green bins that get picked up.
• Other cities around the county have specific drop-off spots and pick-up instructions for residents.

The fine print: Artificial trees are not accepted, and all lights, ornaments, tinsel and other decorations must be removed. 

The intrigue: City residents can get up to two cubic yards of compost and mulch for free at the Miramar Greenery, which accepts Christmas trees and other yard trimmings year-round.

Tell your neighbor

Thousands of people took the annual plunge into the Pacific around San Diego yesterday, including at La Jolla Shores and Del Mar beaches.

The intrigue: In addition to making a fun memory, research shows a dip in icy water can reduce inflammation and soreness, help build resiliency, improve cognitive function and boost your mood.