The trade war is likely to cause fewer jobs and higher prices, Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin, whose district includes North Carolina, tells Axios.

Why it matters: Barkin, in an exclusive interview with Axios' Neil Irwin, said uncertainty among businesses is likely to slow economic activity.

• His comments, however, came before the Trump administration decided Wednesday to scale back its reciprocal tariff plans, except for those targeting China.
• The move was a relief for global markets, but uncertainty remains.

What they're saying: "As I've talked to business people, they're still struggling to have confidence in where this lands," Barkin said.

• "The direction is clear ... it's just the destination that people are challenged with," Barkin told Axios Wednesday.

State of play: That's true for North Carolina businesses, too.

• Lee Lilley, North Carolina's commerce secretary, told Axios that many companies the state is talking to are stuck in a holding pattern.
• "Everybody's kind of got their hands up in the air," he said. "It's hard to make an investment decision with the multiplicity of variables that are at play."

Between the lines: Lilley added that the pipeline of companies considering North Carolina investments had been pretty strong at the start of the year.

• "I think we're curious to see what happens to it here in the next couple months if this sticks," he said.

Zoom in: The tariff back-and-forth is complicating decisions for smaller businesses, too.

• Patrick Woodson, the owner of Brewery Bhavana in Raleigh, said prices could spike for his company if the tariffs are implemented — from the aluminum cans they use (most of which come from Canada), the malts they brew with (Europe and Canada) and the flour for their popular dim sum (China).
• "We use American [ingredients] when we can, but there's just such a different quality and history to the European malts, which is a huge aspect of our recipes," he said. "We could reformulate them, but that's going to have flavor impacts on what we do."

Go deeper with Axios' interview with Barkin

North Carolina is one of the largest exporters of goods and services to China in the U.S. — a trading partnership that is now in limbo due to tit-for-tat tariffs between the two counties.

By the numbers: North Carolina exported $5.9 billion worth of goods and services to China in 2023.

• That same year the state imported $7.1 billion in goods from China.

Zoom in: The state's largest exports to China were: pharmaceuticals and medicines ($3.4 billion), oilseeds and grains ($285 million), meat products ($280 million) and nonmetallic minerals ($277 million).

Former Democratic Congressman Wiley Nickel officially launched his campaign for U.S. Senate yesterday, mounting a challenge to unseat North Carolina's two-term Republican U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis.

Why it matters: Nickel's announcement kickstarts what's expected to be one of the most bitter, expensive races for U.S. Senate in the country next year.

• It also comes at a tough moment for Tillis, who has spent the early months of President Trump's second term struggling to balance his signature bipartisan approach to governance without angering the president and the GOP base.

Driving the news: Nickel, who won one of the most tightly contested U.S. House races in the country in 2022, is the first Democrat to officially jump in the Senate race.

• He's running as a "fighter" with a "real backbone," setting himself up as a contrast to Tillis, who has repeatedly been called "spineless" by Republicans and Democrats alike. (Former Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, a fellow Republican, once called Tillis a "spineless toad."
• Tillis' campaign was quick to clap back: "Next year, the choice for North Carolinians will be between a radical liberal trial lawyer and a commonsense conservative problem solver. We are ready for the fight," Tillis' campaign manager Abby Roesch said in a statement.

The intrigue: Nickel could face a tough primary competitor.

• Democrats are hoping to finally knock off Tillis next year, and some have looked to former Gov. Roy Cooper as a contender worthy of taking on Tillis.
• Tillis himself is facing a handful of longshot right-wing primary challengers, with others mulling whether to enter the race.

Go deeper: The Democrats Don't Have a U.S. Senate Candidate in NC Yet. Is This Out of the Ordinary? (Old North State Politics)

🍂 Raleigh is considering ending its leaf collection program, in which it offers to vacuum up leaves raked to the curb twice a year. (WRAL)

🎓 UNC-Chapel Hill looks to trim $50 million to offset potential federal funding cuts. (Triangle Business Journal 🔒)

☕️ How some Triangle coffee shops are thriving as a place remote workers can stay at all day, offering coffee, lunch and after-work drinks. (INDY Week)

North Carolina tourism offices will spend a half million over three years for the chance to be included in the Michelin Guide's expansion into the South.

Why it matters: Tourism officials expect a return on their investments through increased travel spending.

Follow the money: Visit North Carolina — part of the Economic Development Partnership of North Carolina — has agreed to pay $170,000 annually over three years.

• Additionally, Explore Asheville, the Charlotte Regional Visitors Authority, Discover Durham and Visit Raleigh are contributing $45,000 per year.

Go deeper

Residents of the Triangle and Asheville are among the most worried about climate change in the country, according to a new analysis of survey data.

State of play: About 63.3% of U.S. adults overall are "somewhat" or "very" worried about global warming as of 2024, per Yale Program on Climate Change Communication estimates based on survey data.

Zoom in: Counties in North Carolina with especially high shares of adults worried about global warming were: Durham (71.9%), Buncombe (71.4%), Wake (70.1%) and Orange (69.5%).

• Counties with the lowest share were: Stokes (46.8%), Yadkin (48.9%) and Wilkes (48.9%).