Most venture capitalists I've spoken with this year believe that artificial intelligence is the most consequential tech innovation — and investment opportunity — since mobile. Or, in some cases, since the wheel.

The big picture: The certainty doesn't extend much further.

• Some investors are betting big on startups working on core AI, such as developing their own large language models. This thesis suggests that AI will become akin to cloud computing, which is dominated by behemoths like Amazon and Microsoft.
• Some investors are focusing on the myriad of services that seek to leverage core AI, from fintech to health care to enterprise software to climate. Their comp is the web, which was revolutionary but, arguably, more a commodity than a blockbuster business. The real gold rush was everything built on top of the web, including Google, Facebook and Amazon.

Zoom out: This is much different than past VC investment hype cycles like crypto or nanotech, in that there are few skeptics.

• Yes, plenty fear the the doomsday power of unregulated AI, or of AI that's regulated in large countries but not elsewhere. But those concerns aren't dampening disbursements.

By the numbers: There are all sorts of data sets about "AI startup" investment. Take them all with a grain of salt.

• AI has become a ubiquitous marketing buzzword, much like "internet" once was. If a company ever asked one of its engineers to fool around with ChatGPT, it's likely now calling itself AI-enabled.

The bottom line: Most VCs agree that the next great tech story is currently being written, and hope to be secondary characters in its most significant chapters. The plot, however, remains a work in progress.

Finastra Group, a London-based fintech owned by Vista Equity Partners, is in talks with private credit funds about a $6 billion refinancing package, per Bloomberg.

Why it's the BFD: It would be the largest private credit deal ever, topping the $5 billion secured last summer for the leveraged buyout of Zendesk.

• If that record sounds familiar, it's because Carlyle Group was working on a $5.5 billion private credit package for its takeover of health care analytics company Cotiviti, before deal talks collapsed earlier this month.

Details: Finastra, which provides payment infrastructure software, reportedly is in talks with Oak Hill Advisors, KKR, Sixth Street Partners and Ares Management. The company was acquired by Vista in 2012, and has over $4 billion of debt set to mature.

The bottom line: If this deal goes through, don't expect the record to hold for long, as private credit funds were sitting on a whopping $1.4 trillion at the end of 2022.

⚡ Virta, a Finnish EV charging services platform, raised €85m. Jolt Capital led, and was joined by Business Finland, Future Energy Ventures, Helen Ventures, Vertex Growth Fund, Finnish Industry Investment, Lahti Energy, Vantaa Energy and Kotka Energy. www.virta.global

🚑 Enveda Biosciences, a Boulder, Colo.-based drug discovery startup that leverages plant chemistry, raised $51m in Series B extension funding. Kinnevik led, and was joined by Henry Kravis and insiders FPV, True Ventures, Dimension and Wireframe. www.envedabio.com

• Berachain, a Layer 1 blockchain, raised $42m. Polychain Capital led, and was joined by Hack VC, Shima Capital, Robot Ventures and Goldentree Asset Management. https://axios.link/3Lopi8Z

⚡ Avalanche Energy, a Seattle-based nuclear fusion startup, raised $40m in Series A funding. Lowercarbon Capital led, and was joined by Founders Fund and Toyota Ventures. https://axios.link/3LtoWhy

• Katmai, a New York-based video conferencing startup that includes a 3D engine a New York-based, raised $22m in Series A funding led by Starr Insurance Cos. www.katmaitech.com

• Hydrosat, a Washington, D.C.-based developer of Earth observation satellites, raised $20m in Series A funding and grants. Statkraft Ventures led, and was joined by Blue Bear Capital, Hartree Partners, OTB Ventures, Freeflow Ventures, Cultivation Capital, Techstars, Santa Barbara Venture Partners, Expon Capital and Hemisphere Ventures. https://axios.link/3H8olPp

• Thetanuts Finance, a Williamsburg, Va.-based DeFi trading startup, raised $17m co-led by Polychain Capital, Hyperchain Capital and Magnus Capital. https://axios.link/3N9raDW

🌎 Abatable, a London-based carbon abatement startup, raised $13.5m from Azora Capital. https://axios.link/3oDcvq4

• Arado, a Brazilian agribusiness marketplace, raised $12m in Series A funding. Acre Venture Partners led, and was joined by Syngenta Ventures, Globo Ventures, Maya Capital, Valor Capital and SP Ventures. https://axios.link/40Fvz4x

🌎 CarbonChain, a London-based carbon accounting platform, raised $10m in Series A funding co-led by USV and Voyager Ventures. www.carbonchain.com

• InfiniDome, an Israeli developer of anti-jamming solutions, raised $9m in Series A funding. Hanwha Aerospace led, and was joined by Honeywell Ventures and Next Gear Ventures. www.infinidome.com

• Sonet.io, a San Jose, Calif.-based provider of cloud security solutions for remote work, raised $6m in seed funding co-led by The Hive and WestWave Capital. www.sonet.io

• Hana Kuma, Naomi Osaka's production company, raised $5m and will spin off from SpringHill, which invested alongside Epic Games, Fenway Sports Group, The Kinoshita Group and Disruptive. https://axios.link/3N83f7H

• Kluster, a British revenue strategy platform, raised $5m in Series A funding led by Foresight Group. www.kluster.com

• Summer, a student debt repayment tool, raised $6m in Series A extension funding from General Catalyst, QED, Flourish Ventures, Partnership Fund for NYC, Story Ventures, Gaingels, Calm VC and Avidbank. https://axios.link/3mUsksk

🦐 Tepbac, a Vietnamese aquaculture startup for shrimp farming, raised $2.25m from Aqua-Spark, AgFunder and Son-Tech Investment. https://axios.link/43RBWo8

• Adludio, a British mobile advertising startup, raised £2m from insider Mercia. www.adludio.com

🚑 Third Way Health, an LA-based provider of front-of-office administrative tools for medical practices, raised $1.55m in pre-seed funding led by ApolloMed. www.thirdway.health

• All Seas Capital acquired a minority stake in Nurture Landscapes, a British ground maintenance and green services business. www.nurture-group.co.uk

• Berkshire Partners invested in Thompson Safety, a Houston-based provider of onsite first aid, fire, and life safety services. www.thompson-safety.com

• Bertram Capital invested in The Vinyl Outlet, a Buffalo, N.Y.-based provider and installer of residential vinyl fencing and decking. www.thevinyloutlet.com

• Clearview Capital invested in Capitol Services, an Austin, Texas-based provider of outsourced legal and compliance services. www.capitolservices.com

• EQT agreed to buy IMG Academy, a Bradenton, Fla.-based student athlete development program, from Endeavor (NYSE: EDR) for $1.25b. https://axios.link/41JqauM

🚑 Unlock Health, a hospital marketing platform backed by Amulet Capital and Athyrium Capital, acquired Braden, Fla.-based digital marketing company Eruptr and Houston-based creative agency Decode. https://axios.link/3KVtrQ8

🌎 Vista Equity Partners invested in Benchmark Gensuite, a provider of EHS, sustainability and ESG reporting software. www.benchmarkgensuite.com

🚑 Kenvue, the consumer health products business being spun out of Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), set IPO terms to 151.2m shares at $20-$23. It would have a fully diluted market value of $40.6b, were it to price in the middle, and the $3.3b raise would be the largest U.S. IPO since Rivian in late 2021. https://axios.link/41FtWVY

• Kaspi.kz (LSE: KSPI), Kazakhstan's fintech superapp with a market cap north of $14b, is preparing to file for a U.S. listing, per Axios Pro. https://axios.link/3AqUxdg

🚑 Picard Medical, a Palo Alto, Calif.-based artificial heart developer, agreed to go public at an implied $480m valuation via Altitude Acquisition Corp. (Nasdaq: ALTU), a SPAC that previously discussed buying supersonic plane maker Aerion and P2P car rental company Getaround. https://axios.link/3LqKSJP

• Carrier Global (NYS: CARR) is in talks to buy most of German heating and cooling business Viessmann for more than $10b, per the WSJ. https://axios.link/442eBQH

• PlayStation, a division of Sony Interactive Entertainment (NYSE: SONY), agreed to acquire game developer Firewalk Studios from ProbablyMonsters Inc. https://axios.link/3AlzhW6

• Primonial, a French asset manager, is considering separate sales for its distribution and property investment units, per Reuters. https://axios.link/3AnSkiT

• Tokio Marine (Tokyo: 8766) is seeking a buyer for its Southeast Asia life insurance unit, which could fetch around $1b, per Bloomberg. https://axios.link/3oIIZ2B

• Trillium Capital offered to buy Getty Images (NYSE: GETY) for around $4b, or $10 per share, but declined to detail how it would finance the bid. https://axios.link/3N89GYB

• Ares Management launched a $1.5 billion private credit fund for high-net-worth individuals. https://axios.link/40xJBFb

⚡ CelerateX Capital, a new clean energy investment group formed by Kerogen Capital and ex-GE execs, is targeting $1b for a fund focused on areas like geothermal and modular nuclear reactors. https://axios.link/3V2qJgD

• Ridge Ventures, an SF-based firm focused on enterprise software startups, raised $180m for its fifth fund. www.ridge.vc

• Twitter is seeking to sell LP stakes in several small venture capital funds, threatening to default on capital calls if it cannot find a buyer, per Forbes. The commitments were made prior to Elon Musk's takeover. https://axios.link/3ozoWU1

• Credit Suisse's brain drain continues. The latest is Chris Sanger, who's joining Truist Financial to be a managing director overseeing bank coverage, per Bloomberg. https://axios.link/40uL1QY

• John Budetti joined Paul Hastings as a partner and chair of the law firm’s investment funds and private capital practice. He previously was with Kirkland & Ellis. www.paulhastings.com

• Commerce Ventures promoted Vivek Krishnamurthy to partner. www.commerce.vc

First Republic yesterday reported its first earnings since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, and it was way worse than expected.

• The lender reported that its deposits plunged by more than 40%, or nearly $72 billion. In a tiny bit of silver lining, First Republic added that withdrawals had eased since the end of March, and that it had retained the vast majority of its bankers.
• Investors spent yesterday pushing First Republic shares higher, but reversed course in a hurry during aftermarket trading. Today's open is down more than 24% from yesterday's close.