It's a foregone conclusion that SpaceX will raise at least $85 billion in its record-wrecking IPO, with pricing set for Thursday and first trades for Friday.

• The question, therefore, is what happens next.

The bull case

SpaceX will generate hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue by 2030, despite booking less than $19 billion last year.

The biggest chunk should be from Starlink, which will leverage Starship's larger payloads to supercharge its nascent direct-to-cell business. Starlink could corner the global market, either as a replacement for legacy carriers or as their new infrastructure layer (thus reducing consumer switching costs). Don't forget about its massive spectrum purchase from Echostar.

The floor for SpaceX's AI business is that it just keeps selling compute, like the new agreements with Anthropic and Google — which combined will provide around $2 billion in monthly revenue.

• The ceiling for SpaceX's AI business is that Grok really works as a viable alternative to Claude, ChatGPT, and Gemini (plus their various offshoots). Then the sky's the limit, although SpaceX may need to reclaim some of its compute.
• SpaceX also will continue its flagship launch business, including some lumpiness tied to NASA's lunar missions, and possibly could be generating revenue from orbital data centers where revenue horizons are longer.

If SpaceX hits around $200 billion in revenue with continued growth, a $1.75 trillion valuation will look like a bargain.

The bear case

SpaceX has spent most of its life operating as the market leader in a category of its own making (commercial space launch).

• Its future plans are much more crowded, and the starting price is very expensive.

Starship remains a work in progress, not a sure bet. Coverage may be superior to current plans, but will it be cost competitive? Starlink's current service is adding subscribers, but at a declining ARPU. There also may be viable rivals — including Amazon, which is buying Globalstar.

Compute is a commodity. Right now it's benefiting from the bottleneck, but that should ease given the massive number of data center buildouts and expected increases in inference efficiency. And if Grok does work, it's possible that rivals like Anthropic and Google would find ways to cut off SpaceX's compute cash cow.

The wildcard: Elon Musk

Musk has undeniable market magic. Bet against him at your portfolio's peril.

He's also a keyman risk. If Musk were no longer leading SpaceX, a lot of investor enthusiasm dissipates. Premium goes poof.

• Musk is often compared to Steve Jobs, so a big question is if SpaceX is in its pre-iPhone/App Store phase, when Jobs was vital, or in its post-iPhone stage where Tim Cook was able to build on bedrock.
• Bulls believe the former, adding that SpaceX has perhaps the world's best physical engineering team, while bears see a rocket/telecom/AI conglomerate that's less than a year old and still needs foundational direction.

The bottom line: We'll all pay attention to Friday's stock pop or fizzle, but what matters more is years down the road.

OpenAI yesterday said that it's filed confidential IPO registration papers with the SEC.

Why it's the BFD: Optionality. Both OpenAI and Anthropic are putting themselves in position to go public by late summer, or months later.

Behind the scenes: Word is that OpenAI plans to do another tender offer before an IPO, at the same $852 billion valuation it secured earlier this year.

• Anthropic didn't tie a secondary to its recent $65 billion funding round.

The bottom line: SpaceX may not hold its IPO crown for long.

• Iceye, a Finnish satellite startup, raised €1b at a €10b valuation (including €550m of secondary). General Atlantic led, joined by Nokia Oyj, Qatar Investment Authority, and Solidium. axios.link/4fT5drd

• NinjaOne, an Austin, Texas-based IT management platform, raised $400m in Series C extension funding at a $12.3b post-money valuation. Most of it was secondary. Backers were Wellington Management, TVG, BDT & MSD Partners, Sequoia Capital, Iconiq, Hedosophia, NEA, Washington Harbour Partners, CapitalG, and Pinegrove Opportunity Partners. axios.link/3Sv4VNa

• Beacon, an AI holding company led by ex-Instacart execs, raised $225m in Series C funding. General Catalyst and HarbourVest led, joined by Lightspeed, Intrepid Growth Partners, Valiant Peregrine, BDT & MSD Partners, Journey LP, and Sator Grove. axios.link/4fvaqVR

• Morpho, an "open credit network," raised $175m from Paradigm, Ribbit Capital, a16z, Apollo, Circle, and VanEck. axios.link/4uA2vKU

🚑 City Therapeutics, a Cambridge, Mass.-based developer of RNAi medicines, raised $99.5m in Series B funding. Viking Global Investors and Sofinnova Investments led, joined by Casdin Capital, NYBC Ventures and insiders Arch Venture Partners, Fidelity, Invus, Slate Path Capital, Rock Springs Capital, Regeneron Ventures, and AN Ventures. axios.link/4v0MwGs

• PointFive, an NYC-based AI and cloud spend management startup, raised $60m in Series B funding. Accel led, joined by Salesforce Ventures, Entrée Capital, Perpetual Growth, Vesey Ventures, Sheva Ventures, and Index Ventures. axios.link/4vzMOnJ

🚑 Stepful, a medical worker training platform, raised $55m in Series C funding, Oak HC/FT led, joined by Foresite Capital, Hearst Ventures, and the Citi Impact Fund and insiders SemperVirens, YC, Intermountain Health, and ECMC Education Impact Fund. axios.link/43jcd9h

🌎 Innovafeed, a French insect ag firm, raised €51m from insiders Creadev, QIA, Temasek, FFC, ABC Impact, and ADM. axios.link/4xdkpW8

• Evotrex an LA-based maker of hybrid RV trailers, raised $30m in Series A funding from GSR United Capital, Forebright Concerto Capital, TTGG Ventures, and Pegasus Capital. axios.link/43p77YY

• Edge Markets, an NYC-based banking platform for gambling and prediction markets, raised $29.2m in Series A funding. CoinFund led, joined by Indicator Ventures, Mantis VC, Stepstone Group, and Bullpen Capital. axios.link/4ed96oi

• Vinyl Equity, a transfer agent for public companies, raised $20m in Series A funding, per Axios Pro. Jump Capital led, joined by MUFG Innovation Partners, Index Ventures, Spark Capital, Infinity Ventures, and Cambrian Fintech. axios.link/4ehwBfZ

🚀 NewOrbit, a U.K.-based developer of very-low Earth orbit satellites, raised $18.5m in Series A funding led by Voyager Ventures. axios.link/4e5bRrC

⚡️ Galvany Energy, a German heat pump installer, raised €10m in seed funding led by SET Ventures and AENU. axios.link/43Wdkfa

• Zaro.ai, a London-based adaptive workspace startup, raised $5.1m in pre-seed funding led by Cherry Ventures. zaro.ai

• Lexful, a Salt Lake City-based IT documentation platform, raised $7m in seed funding led by Top Down Ventures and York IE. axios.link/4vvVICx

• Merchantee, a Prague-based provider of e-commerce marketplace intelligence tools, raised €1.8m. Reflex Capital led, joined by Czech Founders VC and Lighthouse Ventures. axios.link/3PTg9KO

• Clear Robotics, a developer of autonomous maritime vessels, raised $1.75m in pre-Series A funding. Shipsfocus Ventures led, joined by Katapult Ocean, SGInnovate, M7 Holdings, and MGS Ventures. axios.link/4ujRbCt

• Bain Capital agreed to acquire a majority stake in FDH Aero, a Commerce, Calif.-based provider of aerospace and defense industry supply chain solutions, from Audax Private Equity (which will retain a position). axios.link/4ebT4uY

• Bain also joined the auction for Australian outdoor advertising firm oOh!media (ASX: OML), which already had bids from I Squared Capital and Pacific ​Equity Partners.

• Cadogan Tate, a TSG Consumer portfolio company, acquired Fully Loaded Deliveries, a Phoenix-based luxury moving, storage, and design installation company. axios.link/4e5cL7u

• Godspeed Capital Management invested in JP Donovan, a Rockledge, Fla.-based general contracting and precision fabrication firm focused on space infrastructure, heavy civil, and design-build construction. axios.link/4uXCSEH

• Peer39, an O3 Industries portfolio company, acquired Adloox, a Paris-based ad verification company. axios.link/4og2wBP

• Phenna Group, an Oakley Capital portfolio company, acquired Begalvi, a Spanish provider of compliance management SaaS for homeowners associations. axios.link/3QuNufa

• Pye-Barker Fire & Safety, backed by Altas and Leonard & Green Partners, bought Fire Protection Specialists, a provider of fire protection services in the Pacific Northwest. axios.link/43mZjHk

• Second Nature Brands, a Chicago-based snackmaker owned by CapVest Partners, agreed to buy Tillamook Country Smoker, a beef jerky and protein snack maker, from Insignia Capital. axios.link/49P3Y8u

• Thoma Bravo agreed to acquire Kneat (TSX: KSI), an Ireland-based digital validation platform, for C$650m. axios.link/43iy6Wd

• TPG invested in Smith + Howard, an Atlanta-based assurance, tax, advisory, and wealth management firm. axios.link/4xgVdy7

🚑 Parabilis Medicines, a Cambridge, Mass.-based oncology biotech, increased the number of IPO shares offered to 33.3m from 25m but kept the price range at $17-$19. It would have a $2.6b market cap, were it to price in the middle. Parabilis plans to list on the Nasdaq (PBLS) and has raised over $800m from firms like Fidelity (11.3% pre-IPO stake), RA Capital Management (10%), Arch Venture Partners (8.3%), Venbio (6.7%), GV (6.2%), Milky Way Investments (5.9%), Cormorant (5.6%), and Nextech (5.4%). axios.link/4v1my5T

• WhiteHawk Minerals, a Philadelphia-based owner of natural gas mineral and royalty interests in the Marcellus and Haynesville Shales, raised $200m in its IPO. It priced in the middle of its $25-$27 range, for a $678m fully diluted value, and will list on the NYSE (WHK). Backers include Omega Capital Partners. axios.link/3Rm5k4l

• Zepto, an Indian grocery delivery company, is seeking to raise around $1b in its IPO. It's raised around $2.5b in VC funding, most recently at a $7b valuation from CalPERS, Goodwater Capital, and General Catalyst. axios.link/4up6cmw

• A Paradise II Acquisition, a leisure and entertainment SPAC, filed for a $135m IPO. axios.link/4dZ1mrb

• Cartesian Growth IV, a SPAC formed by Cartesian Capital Group, filed for a $250m IPO. axios.link/4usYveW

• Ocean Capital Acquisition, a SPAC led by Simon Wong (Hermitage Capital HK), raised $100m in its upsized IPO. axios.link/4dBSofL

🚑 Research Alliance Corporation IV, a health SPAC formed by RA Capital, filed for a $75m IPO. axios.link/4oe0uSK

• Snow Rothschild Acquisition, a SPAC led by Ian Snow (CEO of Snow Phipps), raised $200m in its IPO. axios.link/4v2BkZB

🚑 CapMan Growth agreed to sell its minority stake in Finnish vision and eye health company Silmäasema to Terveystalo (HEL: TTALO). axios.link/4ojWn83

🚑 Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) agreed to buy Firefly Bio, an SF-based biotech focused on protein degraders, for $1b in cash. Firefly had raised $94m in 2024 from Versant Ventures, MPM BioImpact, Decheng Capital and Eli Lilly. axios.link/4odmvRX

🚑 GSK (NYSE: GSK) agreed to buy cancer drug developer Nuvalent (Nasdaq: NUVL) for $10.6b in cash, or $124 per share (a 40% premium to yesterday's closing price). axios.link/4xjaFcO

⚡️ Oklo (NYSE: OKLO) acquired ARMEC, an Oak Ridge, Tenn.-based manufacturing and engineering firm serving the nuclear industry. axios.link/43TvDl9

⚡️ ARM-Harith Infrastructure Investments, a Nigerian PE firm, plans to raise $200m for a fund focused on sub-Saharan energy and climate infrastructure projects. axios.link/43mjk0A

• Future Standard raised $3b for its fifth PE secondaries fund. axios.link/49IH1Uy

• Kindred Ventures raised a combined $355m for its fourth flagship fund and second select fund. axios.link/4anEsr5

• Pitchdrive, a Belgian VC firm focused on "AI-native founders," raised €60m for its fourth fund. axios.link/3QaQ5uv

• Inovia promoted Mia Morisset to partner. axios.link/43i3V1n

🚑 Richie Schwartz joined Goodwin as a Boston-based partner in its life sciences and public M&A practices. He previously was with Paul Weiss. axios.link/49Oq9LZ

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