Jay Powell tomorrow will give his annual speech from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which last year set the stage for a series of Fed rate cuts.

• Wall Street will stare hard at its screens. Private equity might just hit the links and catch up later.

State of play: Private equity is a long-term asset class, and Powell is a lame duck walking.

• His successor will almost certainly have assured President Trump of an intrention to push for further rate cuts in 2026 — maybe even a return to ZIRP — and Trump is further seeking to stack the deck.
• Private equity obviously cares about what happens over the next nine months, both in terms of debt servicing and equity prices, but cares more about what happens over the subsequent several years.
• Waiting is easier when the future feels predetermined.

Yes, but: Private equity still faces several major risks from a MAGA-fied Fed.

• Investors have never before lived in a world without Fed independence. Would it ignore rising inflation? Will there be an exodus from the dollar and U.S. debt, thus spiking yields? Are there other macro shoes to drop because the government has a harder time financing its debt.

By the numbers: The Fed vote math also could be a bit trickier than it seems, in terms of Trump getting his way.

• He likely needs two more votes for Board of Governors control.
• One is likely to be Stephen Miran. The other spot could be Lisa Cook's, if Trump's lawfare succeeds. Or Jay Powell's, were he to be removed or resign (he can remain a Fed governor until 2028).
• That board majority then could fire or refuse to renew terms for enough Reserve Bank presidents to guarantee monetary policy votes.

The bottom line: Private equity has had something of a "heads we win, tails we win" history with rates, since higher ones have tended to result in lower entry prices.

• But that hasn't been true lately, with the bulls regularly stomping on Powell's caution.
• So the industry very much wants the cuts it's been expecting all year. Even if it needs to wait a bit longer.

Thanks to my Axios Macro colleagues for the assist with this one.

Thoma Bravo has agreed to buy Dayforce (NYSE: DAY), a Minneapolis-based HR software provider, for $12.3 billion.

Why it's the BFD: This comes against the backdrop of a weakening U.S. labor market, which could set the stage for additional HR tech mergers.

Zoom in: Thoma Bravo will pay $70 per share, representing a 32% premium to Dayforce shares before media reports of a possible deal.

• Abu Dhabi Investment Authority will provide a "significant minority investment."

Catch up quick: Dayforce previously was known as Ceridian HCM, and was taken public in 2018 by THL Partners and Fidelity National — which had paid $5.3b to buy the company more than a decade earlier.

The bottom line: Thoma Bravo says this is its largest take-private deal, and the "largest standalone enterprise software deal ever led by a financial sponsor."

• Nuro, a Mountain View, Calif.,-based developer of autonomous driving tech, raised $97m in Series E extension funding ($203m round total at a $6b valuation) from Icehouse Ventures, Kindred Ventures, NVIDIA, Pledge Ventures and insiders Uber and Baillie Gifford. axios.link/4fN8Bl1

🚑 Twin, a Mountain View, Calif.-based metabolic health startup, raised $53m in Series E funding at a valuation north of $950m, per Fortune. Maj Invest led, joined by insiders Iconiq and Temasek. axios.link/3JoEFzK

• Upstage, an enterprise document AI startup, raised $45m in Series B funding from Korea Development Bank, Amazon, and AMD. axios.link/4mV2NbD

🌎 Better Meat, a Sacramento, Calif.-based maker of plant-based meats, raised $31m. Future Ventures and Resilience Reserve led, joined by Epic Ventures and Sigmas Group. axios.link/3HKs3Cq

• Loft Dynamics, a Swiss VR flight training startup, raised $24m in Series B funding. Friedkin led, joined by Alaska Airlines, UP.Partners, Sky Dayton, and Craft Ventures. axios.link/45qDjgq

⚡ General Fusion, a Canadian fusion energy developer, raised US$22m from Segra Capital, PenderFund, Chrysalix Venture Capital, Milfam, Jimco, Gaingels, Thistledown Capital, Presight Capital, and Hatch. axios.link/45JGZIS

• Bluefish, a New York-based AI marketing platform, raised a $20m Series A. NEA led the round, with participation from Salesforce Ventures, Crane Venture Partners, Swift Ventures, and Bloomberg Beta. axios.link/3HHYEbZ

🚑 Wisdom, a dental RCM startup, raised $21m in Series A funding. Permanent Capital Ventures led, joined by Juxtapose. withwisdom.com

• Garage, a secondhand equipment marketplace for public safety groups, raised $13.5m in Series A funding led by Infinity Ventures. axios.link/4lyoYTN

• Definite, a Philadelphia-based enterprise data startup, raised $10m in seed funding, per Axios Pro. Costanoa Ventures led, joined by Acrew Capital. axios.link/4lDL0Vo

🚑 Cascala Health, a Boston-based developer of patient data summarization tech, raised $8.6m in seed funding. Flare Capital Partners and Eniac Ventures led, joined by Tau Ventures, Digital Health Venture Partners, Redesign Health, Ziegler Linkage Funds, and Omega Healthcare Investors. axios.link/4oRfdDo

• Agenda Hero, an AI startup focused on calendars, raised $5.6m. Upfront Ventures led, joined by Precursor Ventures and K9 Ventures. agendahero.com

🚑 Molecular You, a Vancouver-based personalized health platform, raised US$5m in Series A funding. Voloridge Health led, joined by Dynamic Leap. molecularyou.com

🌎 Wallround, a German provider of energy-efficient building upgrades, raised €4.2m in seed funding. Revent led, joined by GGF and Vonovia. axios.link/47pBPVh

🌎 SugaROx, a U.K.-based crop biostimulant developer, raised €1.1m in seed funding from Mosaic Co., the U.K. Innovation & Science Seed Fund and Regenerate Ventures. axios.link/4lEUbF5

• Quantinuum, a quantum computing group backed by Honeywell (Nasdaq: HON), is in talks to raise new funding at a $10b valuation, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4fVserh

• Ames Watson agreed to buy the North American business of bankrupt jewelry retailer Claire's for $104m. axios.link/47DuYaA

⚡ Blackstone agreed to buy Shermco, an Irving, Texas-based provider of lectrical equipment services, from Gryphon Investors for $1.6b (including debt). axios.link/45LAgOX

• BTX Precision, a portfolio company of L Squared Capital Partners, acquired High Tech Solutions, a Kansas City, Mo., based manufacturer of aerospace components. btxprecision.com

• Carlyle agreed to buy wealth platform Intelliflo from Invesco for $205m, per Financial News. axios.link/4mOdH2J

• Core Industrial Partners invested in Edwards Moving & Rigging, a Shelbyville, Ky.-based provider of heavy hauling and rigging services. edwardsmoving.com

🚑 Ethos Risk Services, a medical management and claims investigations firm owned by Carousel Capital, acquired ForzaCare, a Mesa, Ariz.-based clinical case management provider. ethosrisk.com

🚑 H.I.G. Capital agreed to acquire a majority stake in Avanta Salud, a Spanish occupational health and safety services provider. Minority backer MCH Private Equity will reinvest. avantagrupo.com

• International Paper (NYSE: IP) agreed to sell its global cellulos fibers unit to American Industrial Partners. axios.link/3JIyVRj

🚑 JMI Equity and Frazier-backed Vatica Health are among the bidders for Cozeva, a Fremont, Calif.-based clinical data company, per Axios Pro. axios.link/4fMO2VR

• Pollen Street Capital acquired a majority stake in London-based restructuring firm Leonard Curtis. axios.link/3V8xmia

• Sequoia Financial Group, backed by Kudu Investment Management and Valeas Capital Partners, agreed to acquire Utah-based wealth manager Martin Worley Group. axios.link/4oEXDCd

• Cantor Equity Partners IV, the 13th SPAC formed by Cantor Fitzgerald, raised $400m in its IPO. axios.link/4fWKIrp

• Insight Digital Partners II, a crypto SPAC led by Michael Singer, filed for a $150m IPO. axios.link/41JhOVO

🚑 CentralReach, a unit of Roper Technologies (Nasdaq: ROP), acquired SpectrumAi, a provider of therapy analytics that had raised $9m from backers like F-Prime Capital and Frist Cressey Ventures. axios.link/3UGwqBv

• Digi International (Nasdaq: DGII) acquired Jolt Software, a Lehi, Utah-based provider of operations software for the convenience store and food and beverage industries, for $145.5m in cash. Jolt had raised over $25m from firms like Sorenson Capital and Album VC. jolt.com

🌎 Grundfos of Denmark acquired Newterra, a Coraopolis, Pa.-based provider of water and wastewater treatment solutions, from Frontenac. grundfos.com

🚑 Quadria Capital is in talks to sell a minority stake in Indian topical pharma company Encube Ethicals at a $2b valuation, per Bloomberg. axios.link/3HLkRG6

• Harman, a U.S. audio products makers owned by Samsung Electronics, agreed to sell its digital transformation solutions unit to India's Wipro for $375m. axios.link/4mlIN21

• Mediobanca (Milan: MBO) shareholders rejected its €6.3b all-stock takeover offer for smaller rival Banca Generali (M: BGN), killing the deal. axios.link/4lGy9S9

• Cybernetix Ventures of Boston is raising up to $100m for its second fund, per an SEC filing. cybernetix.vc

• Peter Papagiannis, former global COO of facilities management firm BGIS, joined CCMP Growth Advisors as an executive advisor. axios.link/45GrmCa

• Philip Rich stepped down as head of private equity at Fox Rock Capital, to join the investment team at Cummings Properties. axios.link/47EqjVS