The 2025 IPO market is about to meet its moment of truth, now that Labor Day is in the rearview.

Catch up quick: The year began with high expectations, thanks to a pipeline packed by years of idleness, but then everything got thrown off-kilter by President Trump's tariffs rollout.

• In fact, U.S. IPO proceeds are actually lower than at this same point last year.
• The result has been Wall Street kicking its giddy vibes into September and October.

Driving the news: We're only a few hours into the home stretch, but the so far arrows are pointing up.

• Five companies launched IPO roadshows: Figure, Klarna, Gemini, Legence, and Black Rock Coffee.
• We're still waiting on Via Transportation and StubHub.
• There also was a new IPO filing from the parent company of University of Phoenix.

Zoom in: IPO issuers always take great pains to say they aren't trying to time the markets. "This is just a moment in time," blah, blah.

• The truth is that they very much care about the macro, and the macro is relatively good right now.
• The Fed has signaled September rate cuts and equities are still near record highs. Yes, there is new tariff uncertainty that's caused an early Tuesday sell-off, but it seems to be the difference between Trump's tariffs being in place (i.e., the new normal) and not (i.e., what markets wanted in the first place).

By the numbers: Renaissance Capital estimates that between 40 and 60 companies could price U.S. IPOs between now and year-end, raising around $10 billion.

• That's not quite a gusher, but it's a very steady flow of activity — easily outpacing the first nine months.
• Plus, you could get lots more companies going public via SPACs, which have seen a recent revival and have over $23 billion in active trusts.

The bottom line: IPO hopes always spring eternal. This time it might be justified.

Kraft Heinz (Nasdaq: KHC) announced plans to split into a pair of independent, publicly traded companies.

Why it's the BFD: This follows similar separations by Kellogg and Keurig Dr Pepper, and is the ignominious end to Warren Buffett's rare foray into private equity.

Zoom in: One company will include condiments and boxed foods, like Heinz ketchup, Philadelphia cream cheese, and Kraft mac & cheese. It had around $15.4 billion in 2024 sales.

• The other will hold grocery staples like Oscar Mayer hot dogs, Kraft Singles and Lunchables. It's growing slower and had $10.4 billion in 2024 revenue.
• Neither company has an official name yet, but the working monikers — Global Taste Elevation Co. and North American Grocery Co. — were born in CMO hell.

The bottom line: "Most large food companies are struggling as consumers purchase less of what they sell. In some cases, the slowdown is from consumers who, after two years of food inflation, are making tougher choices about where they spend their dollars in the grocery store. But many consumers also are veering away from so-called highly processed foods." — Lauren Hirsch & Julie Creswell, NY Times

🚑 Ortivity, a German orthopedic clinic developer, raised €200m. Apheon led, joined by Unigestion Private Equity. axios.link/4ncLgfo

⚡ Fermi America, developer of a nuclear-focused "private grid" in Texas to power AI data centers, raised $100m in Series C funding led by Macquarie Group. It also secured a $250m senior loan facility. axios.link/3UPOHMO

• LayerX, a Japanese provider of back-office AI SaaS, $100m in Series B funding. TCV led, joined by MUFG Bank, Mitsubishi UFJ Innovation Partners, Jafco, Keyrock Capital, Coreline Venture, and JP Investment. axios.link/4g6Vbkj

• Kapital, a Mexican commercial fintech, raised $86m at a $1.3b valuation, per Bloomberg. Tribe Capital and Pelion Ventures led, joined by YC, Marbruck Ventures, and True Arrow. axios.link/4p8e0aU

• Citymall, an Indian e-grocery startup, raised $47m in Series D funding. Accel led, joined by insiders Waterbridge Ventures, Citius, General Catalyst, Elevation Capital, Norwest Venture Partners, and Jungle Ventures. axios.link/4mF3ztv

• Phasecraft, a quantum algorithms startup, raised $34m in Series B funding. Plural and Playground Global led, joined by Novo Holdings' Quantum Fund, LocalGlobe, AlbionVC, and Parkwalk Advisors. axios.link/3JAWJqy

🚑 Predoc, a medical records management automation startup, raised $30m in seed and Series A funding, per Fortune. Base10 Partners led, joined by Northzone, Eniac, and Era Ventures. axios.link/4lQYYmR

🚑 Flex, an HSA and FSA payment service provider, raised $15m in Series A funding, per Axios Pro. First Round and Core VC led, joined by Rethink Impact, Cameron Ventures, YC, and Liquid2. axios.link/421go9i

⚡ Offgrid, an Indian battery tech alternative to lithium, raised $15m in Series A funding. Archean Chemicals led, joined by Ankur Capital. axios.link/46gq2qZ

• Lizy, a Brussels-based car-leasing startup, raised €10m in equity and €65m in debt from insiders D'Ieteren, Alychlo, and NewAlpha Asset Management. axios.link/3HZ1FF2

• LightTable, a Denver-based peer review platform for real estate development, raised $6m in seed funding. Primary Venture Partners led, joined by Innovation Endeavors and Banter Capital. axios.link/41sP6sm

🚑 Evernorth, a unit of Cigna Group (NYSE: CI), will invest $3.5b into Shields Health Solutions, a specialty pharmacy group spun out as a standalone business when Sycamore Partners last week completed its Walgreens acquisition. axios.link/46gJzaO

⚡ Ampure, a vehicle charging tech company backed by Transom Capital, acquired Power Designers Sibex, a Crystal River, Fla.-based maker of industrial charging products and electronics. ampure.com

• Arclin, a TJC portfolio company, agreed to buy Aramids, a heat-resistant fibers business whose brands include body armor maker Kevlar, from DuPoint (NYSE: DD) for $1.8b. axios.link/4oWvYgt

• Bain Capital agreed to acquire Jensten Group, a British commercial insurance distributor, from Livingbridge. axios.link/461lGmr

• Bregal Sagemount invested in Spark Membership, a Tampa-based provider of membership management and payments software for martial arts studios. sparkmembership.com

🚑 Capvest agreed to buy German pharma company Stada from Bain Capital and Cinven for around €10b, thus ending IPO talks. axios.link/4p0ir7h

• DBAG acquired German digital consultant Mait. axios.link/4nf9XI6

• Frontline Road Safety, a Denver-based portfolio company of Bain Capital, acquired Peek Pavement Marking, a Columbus, Ga.-based pavement marking and road safety services provider. frontlineroadsafety.com

• JTC (LSE: JTC), a British fund administrator, rejected Permira's buyout approach. axios.link/4639h1j

🚑 Karo Healthcare, owned by KKR, acquired Perrigo's (NYSE: PRGO) skin-care portfolio. axios.link/461PTle

• LDC invested in Bespoke Kitchen, a U.K. provider of vegan and vegetarian products for restaurants. axios.link/464B69C

• Shawbrook, backed by BC Partners and Pollen Street Capital, agreed to buy ThinCats, a British alt lender fo SMEs. axios.link/466Mim7

• Black Rock Coffee Bar, a Scottsdale, Ariz.-based chain with 158 locations, set IPO terms to 14.7m shares at $16-$18. It reports a $2m net loss on $95m in revenue for the first half of 2025, and plans to list on the Nasdaq (BRCB). Backers include Cynosure Partners. axios.link/4g77Tzx

• Figure, a consumer lending platform led by Mike Cagney (ex-SoFi), set IPO terms to 26.3m shares at $18-$20. It would have a $4.5b fully diluted value, were it to price in the middle, and reports $29m of net income on $191m in revenue for the first half of 2025. The company plans to list on the Nasdaq (FIGR), and has raised around $425m, most recently in 2021 at a $3.2b valuation, from backers like DST Global Partners, Ribbit Capital, DCM, and Morgan Creek Digital. axios.link/41zPmpo

• Gemini, a crypto exchange platform led by the Winklevoss twins, set IPO terms to 16.67m shares at $17-$19. It reports a $282m net loss on $68m in revenue for the first half of 2025, and plans to list on the Nasdaq (GEMI). Backers include Morgan Creek Digital. axios.link/3USoiho

• Klarna, a Swedish buy-now-pay-later company, set IPO terms to 34.3m shares at $35-$37. It will trade on the NYSE (KLAR), and had raised over $4b from firms like Sequoia Capital, SoftBank, Silver Lake, Dragoneer, Ant Group, Visa, Atomica, Northzone, GIC, TCV, BlackRock, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Mubadala, and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board. axios.link/4ndZb4F

🌎 Legence, a San Jose, Calif., sustainability consultancy owned by Blackstone, set IPO terms to 26m shares at $25-$29. The company had a $25m net loss on $1.1b in revenue for the first half of 2025, and plans to list on the Nasdaq (LGN). axios.link/46jbsPu

⚡ Rice Acquisition 3, an "energy value chain" SPAC formed by Rice Investment Group, filed for a $250m IPO. axios.link/4glmBDb

⚡ Rolls-Royce (LSE: RR) is weighing an IPO and other financing options for its nuclear reactor unit, per the FT. axios.link/4mRA47O

• EagleTree Capital agreed to sell Northstar Travel Group, a Rutherford, N.J.-based B2B travel industry events and media group, to Japan's JTB Corp. axios.link/4mRALOs

• SeqOne, a French genomic software company, agreed to acquire Congenica, a U.K. genomics software company that raised nearly $90m from backers like Tencent, Legal & General, Parkwalk Advisors, Cambridge Innovation Capital and Amadeus Capital Partners. SeqOne backers include Elaia Partners, Omnex Capital, and Mérieux Equity Partners. seqone.com

• Varonis Systems (Nasdaq: VRNS) paid $150m to acquire SlashNext, an Pleasanton, Calif.-based email security provider that had raised around $48m from backers like Wing VC, Norwest, Four Rivers Group, Kickstart Ventures, Telefónica Ventures, and Ayala. axios.link/4lUeyhG

• BlackRock completed its acquisition of ElmTree Funds, a net-lease real estate investment firm. axios.link/4lhC48Q

• Colt CZ Group agreed to buy a majority stake in Czech gunpowder maker Synthesia Nitrocellulose for around $1.05b. axios.link/4mcCYTT

• Dow (NYSE: DOW) sold another 11% stake in its infrastructure joint venture to partner Macquarie Asset Management for $540m, bringing Dow's stake to 49%. axios.link/4mMaaTc

• Elliott Investment Management has amassed a $4b stake in PepsiCo (Nasdaq: PEP), which last week boosted its stake in energy drink maker Celsius, per the WSJ. axios.link/46ihf7Z

• Lombard Odier of Switzerland agreed to buy Dutch asset manager Ownership Capital. axios.link/3I1p3li

⚡ Plains All American Pipeline (Nasdaq: PAA) and Plains GP Holdings (Nasdaq: PAGP) agreed to pay $1.57b for a 55% stake in pipeline operator EPIC Crude Holdings from Diamondback Energy (Nasdaq: FANG). axios.link/47imeGS

• Benefit Street Partners raised $2.3b for a continuation vehicle that acquired senior-secured floating-rate loans from its fourth private credit fund. axios.link/4lUucJI

• Dmitry Shevelenko, chief business officer of Perplexity, is joining Lazard's board of directors, per the NY Times. axios.link/428lyQM