Just a few decades ago, Oregon's quality of life, booming population and historically strong trade sector made it an attractive place to start a business. We saw the likes of Dutch Bros., Tektronix and Columbia Sportswear take root here and skyrocket into nationally recognized brands.

• But today, some of those same businesses are packing up for greener, more business-friendly pastures, and analysts warn Oregon isn't doing enough to keep their expansion here.

The big picture: Several state, industry and academic reports detail how competitive incentives, aggressive recruitment and more direct engagement from elected leaders in other states are shaping where Oregon-grown companies go next.

• While companies aren't fleeing en masse, some are building new facilities and hiring additional workers elsewhere, citing higher costs, longer permitting timelines and a complicated path to growth in Oregon — concerns business groups say have gone largely unaddressed.

Threat level: Experts Axios spoke with were hesitant to put a precise dollar amount on the problem, given the variables involved, but say it's costing the state billions in private investment, tax revenue and thousands of potential jobs.

• If not addressed soon, they warn, it could hollow out Oregon's economy and erode its job base.
• Since 2020, Oregon has ranked in the bottom half of U.S. states for real GDP growth.

State of play: Nearly a quarter of 400 Oregon businesses surveyed in a 2025 University of Oregon study said they had been contacted by out-of-state recruiters since 2021.

• Companies surveyed described receiving calls and emails from economic development offices in Texas, Arizona, North Carolina and South Carolina. Of those contacted, 68% reported expanding or moving some operations outside Oregon as a result.
• In some cases, recruiters assembled incentive packages within days. One business owner told researchers that South Carolina officials put together a proposal in 24 hours — and that then-Gov. Nikki Haley offered her personal phone number to address any concerns.

"That's the kind of golden treatment other states are offering that I don't believe Oregon has really institutionalized," Robert Parker, the UO study's lead author and director of the Community Planning Workshop, told Axios.

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Oregon House representatives approved a major infusion of public money into Portland's Moda Center last week.

Why it matters: The money — roughly $365 million meant to remodel the aging arena — is conditioned on the Blazers signing a new 20-year lease amid murmurs that without a revamp, the team's new owners could look to move elsewhere.

Zoom in: In a 42-14 vote, lawmakers passed Senate Bill 1501, which would tap income taxes paid by Blazers players, performers and employers in the Rose Quarter to fund the renovation.

• Early plans for the arena include enhanced seating and lighting for fans, upgraded energy efficiency and a more inclusive design.

What they're saying: "This bill isn't about one stadium, one team, or one city. This bill is about our state coming together to protect a vital resource for Oregon's economy and culture," Rep. Rob Nosse, who represents parts of inner Northeast and Southeast Portland, said in a statement.

Yes, but: A full remodel will require hundreds of millions more from the county and city.

What's next: The funding package will now head to Gov. Kotek's desk for a signature.

💬 Your thoughts: How do you feel about all this public money going toward a Moda revamp? What would you want to see in a new Moda Center?

• Hit us up at [email protected] or hit reply to this email. We may use your response in a future story.

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🏗️ The master plan for the Lloyd Center's massive redevelopment was approved unanimously by the Portland Design Commission last week, clearing the way for its total demolition, which some officials worried would leave a void in the city's center for years during construction. (Portland Business Journal)

🤔 The city council is weighing whether to spend millions in unspent housing funds bailing out nonprofits and filling some 1,900 low-income apartment vacancies in the process. (The Oregonian)

🤖 In an effort to shorten phone wait times, the state's Employment Department will begin to use artificial intelligence tools to help free up staff to handle more unemployment insurance claims. (OPB)

🥖 Flour Market Cafe, which closed back in December, announced it will reopen right off of Northeast Alberta Street, not too far from its previous location. The bakery will take over Dogwood Wine & Flowers in the mornings. (Bridgetown Bites)

Portlanders are likely to feel the impact of President Trump's war with Iran in their wallets.

The big picture: The conflict is pushing up energy prices, and there will likely also be a ripple impact on industries connected to them.

Driving the news: Oil prices, then gas prices, spiked following the U.S. and Israel's strikes on Iran.

• The national average price of unleaded gas hit $3.11 a gallon on Tuesday, an 11-cent increase overnight, according to AAA, the biggest single-day spike since March 4, 2022.

Zoom in: Portland drivers, who already pay some of the highest gas prices in the country, would love to pay $3.11 a gallon.

• Average gas prices in the Portland area were hovering around $4.20 a gallon as of Friday, according to AAA.
• That's up roughly 28 cents from last week and a hike of 65 cents from a month ago.

Zoom out: Higher gas prices can have all kinds of downstream effects, with experts expecting price hikes for travel, shipping, plastics, fertilizer and any other product or service that relies on oil.

The bottom line: Companies were already planning to raise prices this year because of tariffs.

• "This gives them further cover to do it," Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told Marketplace.

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🎈1 big thing: For five years, Axios has delivered smart, trustworthy local news to communities like yours — and we're just getting started.

Why it matters: Memberships sustain the journalism you rely on and help us keep delivering strong, independent reporting focused on what matters most.

• Your newsletter helps you stay informed and connected. Help us power the next five years of Axios Portland by becoming a member today.

Temps are dropping and there's precipitation in the forecast, which means there's a slim chance we could see snow in Portland this week, per the National Weather Service.

• There's a 10-20% chance we see more than a trace of snow at the lowest elevations overnight tonight.

Still, with the winter we've had, we'll take any chance we can get.