A new Trump administration would likely reduce economic growth and raise prices, Axios Macro co-authors Neil Irwin and Courtenay Brown write.

• A victory by Vice President Harris would bring more steady-as-she-goes economic policy.

💰The latest: Trump doubled down on familiar plans during an economics-focused speech today in New York, promising to impose new tariffs and cut corporate taxes.

🔮 What they're saying: The economy is shaped by countless forces beyond presidential policies, but two recent reports from Wall Street economists predict that trade wars under a Trump administration would slow down the U.S. economy.

• Goldman Sachs says a Trump victory — with divided government or Republican control of both houses of Congress — would result in a 0.5 percentage point drag on GDP in the second half of next year.
• Nomura economists estimate that Trump's planned tariffs would increase inflation by 0.75 percentage points in 2025.

If Vice President Harris wins — and if the Democrats control the House and Senate — Goldman predicts a "very slight boost" to GDP on average between next year and 2026.

• Go deeper ... Get Axios Macro

Youth vaping is down by almost 25% over the past year, the CDC and FDA said today.

• Roughly 8% of high school students and 6% of middle school students said they regularly use e-cigarettes — the lowest rates in a decade.

💨 Between the lines: 88% of teens who vape said they use flavored products — mainly fruit, candy and mint flavors.

• The FDA has led an aggressive crackdown on flavored vapes, beginning in the Trump administration. Critics argue that flavors appeal to teens, not adult smokers who might benefit from replacing cigarettes with vaping.

Go deeper.

1. ✂️ Former President Trump said he'd put Elon Musk in charge of a new commission on government efficiency if Trump is reelected, Axios' Courtenay Brown reports.
2. 💊 The DEA will allow increased production of some ADHD medications, to help ease shortages. Go deeper.
3. ⚖️ Hunter Biden attempted to enter an Alford plea, under which a defendant maintains their innocence but acknowledges prosecutors have enough evidence to secure a conviction, in his federal tax trial today. Prosecutors seemed surprised by the plea and urged the judge to reject it. Go deeper.

The days are getting shorter as fall approaches, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick writes.

• Parts of the northern U.S. will lose more than three hours of daylight between June 20 (the summer solstice) and Sept. 22 (the fall equinox), according to NOAA's handy Solar Calculator.

Share this story.