Tax refunds are up so far this year, but they're still less than many Americans expect, Axios' Kelly Tyko reports.

• This is the first filing season reflecting changes from the "One Big Beautiful Bill" — including no tax on tips and new deductions that promise to boost refunds for millions.
• Higher standard deductions and updated tax brackets are also pushing refunds higher.

💰 The average refund, as of April 3: about $3,460, up 11% from last year.

• A recent New York Times article was headlined, "'I Got Back Every Penny': Inside Trump's Supercharged Tax Season." (Gift link.)

🤔 Yes, but: Early forecasts promised even bigger gains.

• The typical increase is around $300, not the $600–$700 many expected.

👵🏻 Many of the new deductions — including those for seniors, tips and overtime pay — have had uneven uptake and mixed results.

• Go deeper.

Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, believes the disruption from the Iran war could end "relatively quickly" when and if a deal gets made, he told Neil Irwin at an Axios News Shapers event in Washington today.

• Hassett added: "In fact, the Iranians are at a point where they're significantly at risk if they don't make a deal, because all of their storage facilities are full and they'd have to shut down the wells."

✂️ Asked about cutting interest rates amid rising inflation tied to the Iran war and more, Hassett said: "I understand that the energy shock will certainly have some repercussion for global inflation."

• "But on the other hand, core inflation is the lowest it's been since before the Biden inflation began. And interest rates in the U.S. are higher than for comparable countries around the world."
• "So if I were a [Fed] governor, I'd still be willing to cut rates because I know that oil price shocks don't lead to inflation."

At the same event, Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) told Hans Nichols that he's going to New Hampshire — in part to support candidates there, but also to bolster the local fight against data centers.

• Van Hollen also promoted his tax plan, which involves no federal income taxes for single filers making under $46,000 or married couples under $92,000.

Van Hollen told Hans: "That will provide relief to about 130 million Americans ... and it's paid for entirely by a surtax on millionaires."

Sen. Dave McCormick (R-Pa.) told Mike Allen that the AI revolution presents "the most profound moment of change in our lifetimes" — adding that Americans are rightly concerned about how that will affect them.

• McCormick is an AI champion on Capitol Hill. But he acknowledged that it comes with risks to Americans, the environment and economy that must be mitigated.

⚡ McCormick, who last year held a summit on "Unleashing Pennsylvania Energy & Innovation" that drew participants from around the world, will host a sequel this summer focused on defense innovation.

• Last night in Georgetown, McCormick hosted an event that raised $1.4 million for four of his Pennsylvania House colleagues, Hans Nichols reported.

Go deeper.

1. 🚢 No ships have made it through the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Central Command said on X today. Nine vessels have been turned around by U.S. forces.
2. 👟 Allbirds shares shot up over 700% as of midafternoon today after a "bizarre pivot" from shoes to AI compute infrastructure, CNBC reports.
3. ☕️ Starbucks is rolling out a new AI-powered feature in ChatGPT that suggests drinks based on your mood, cravings or even a photo. Go deeper.

Maria Semple's "Go Gentle," a comic novel about a Stoic philosopher and single mother in Manhattan who finds herself caught up in events that challenge her capacity for acceptance, is Oprah Winfrey's new book club pick.

• Winfrey said in a statement: "I learned so much about Stoicism — I laughed out loud for real. And underneath the humor there was always something tender ... a quiet truth about relationships, identity, and what it means to find peace with yourself."

N.Y. Times review (gift link).