2025 may bring more homes, but with familiar high prices.

Why it matters: Many people will remain locked out of homeownership. 

Here's what experts and industry pros predict is in store this year for mortgage rates, new builds, moves and more.

Rates will remain above 6%

Reality check: "We're not going to see a big change in the affordability picture," Hale tells Axios.

• "It's still going to be challenging to get into the housing market" especially for first-time buyers, she says.

If rates do decline, it "could even exacerbate" the country's housing crunch, Josh Altman, real estate agent and former cast member of "Million Dollar Listing L.A.," tells Axios.

• That's because "as mortgages become more affordable, more buyers are going to enter the market, creating greater competition and ultimately higher home prices," says Altman, who's also co-founder of Redy, a platform for home sellers and agents.

More new homes

Chief economist Lawrence Yun at the National Association of Realtors expects more single-family new builds.

• "There is still a housing shortage, and homebuilders are making good profits to continue expansion," he says.

Fewer "locked-in" homeowners

The mortgage "lock-in" effect, which has contributed to the housing market's woes by discouraging homeowners from moving, won't disappear next year — but it will lessen, Hale says.

By the numbers: In mid-2024, 84% of homeowners with a mortgage had a rate under 6%, down from 89% a year earlier, per a Realtor.com analysis.

• Hale expects that share to fall to 75% by the end of 2025 as more people choose to part with their current home loans.

More rent increases

As renters postpone house purchases, increased apartment demand and less new apartment construction pave the way for landlords to raise rents.

Case in point: "Probably the biggest story this year that we've seen [is] from people coming in the front door and then not leaving [out] the back door," Joe Fisher, president of publicly traded apartment owner UDR, told The Wall Street Journal.

What else experts predict

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The rate on a 30-year mortgage is hovering close to 7%, a nearly 6-month high, per Freddie Mac data.

• Though home sales picked up in the third quarter despite rising rates, they're still hovering at historic lows.

Why it matters: Higher rates are putting home buying out of reach for many Americans, and simply turning others off from the market.

🔮 What's next: Most forecasts see mortgage rates declining a smidge in 2025 to 6-6.5% — probably not enough to jolt the slumping real estate market.

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🏈 The Cardinals ended the season 8-9 after a 47-24 victory over the San Francisco 49ers yesterday afternoon. (Arizona Sports)

🏥 Victims of a New Year's fireworks explosion in Hawaii were transported to the Diane and Bruce Halle Arizona Burn Center for treatment. (Arizona's Family)

🤑 The Big 12 received an $8 million payout for ASU's College Football Playoff quarterfinal appearance. (Phoenix Business Journal)

The hotly anticipated pickleball entertainment venue Electric Pickle officially opens today in south Tempe.

The big picture: Dubbed the "Topgolf of Pickleball," the bar, restaurant and pickleball combo will be the first in the nation. In addition to nine pickleball courts, the facility features a two-story indoor/outdoor restaurant, golf simulators, bocce ball, private cabanas, ping pong tables and a stage for live music.

Zoom in: Electric Pickle, located just south of IKEA near Interstate 10 and Warner Road, goes beyond standard bar fare. The restaurant's menu features seared ahi, short ribs and barbacoa nachos.

• Unique cocktail options include spiked slushies and a guava mojito.

How it works: Serious pickleballers can invest in a $100 monthly membership that includes discounted court and golf simulator rentals and unlimited open play.

• Players can make one-time court and simulator reservations online and in person.
• Restaurant reservations can also be made online.

Tell a pickleballer