The energy shock from the Iran war may drive long-lasting change in how the global multitrillion-dollar oil market operates — turning a relatively open and smoothly functioning system into something weaponized and fractured.

Why it matters: Such a reordering would mean, at a minimum, higher energy prices and inflation, and in the long term could even shake the foundations of the dollar-based global economy and with it, U.S. power.

The latest: Iran still has the critical Strait of Hormuz effectively locked down, and oil prices have resumed climbing.

• The price of oil is now about 50% higher than before the war began.
• And prices in the physical market for oil are at record highs as countries and companies compete for increasingly scarce barrels.

The big picture: This is "the mother of all supply chain disruptions," Dan Yergin, author of "The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power" and vice chairman of S&P Global, tells Axios.

Flashback: Such shocks in the past have led to permanent changes in the global economy.

• The pandemic drove a push among countries to reshore manufacturing.
• The Ukraine war forced European countries to reduce dependence on Russian natural gas.
• The 1970s oil crisis got Americans to actually drive small cars.

Between the lines: Energy shocks can also shift global power. The Suez crisis — another disruption in a key Middle East waterway — is seen as the moment when the U.K. lost its standing as a global superpower.

• Critics wonder if the U.S. is at a similar moment.

Reality check: The conflict isn't yet over, and it's still too early to write its ending, much less know the long-term consequences.

Zoom out: The last time a nation or nations effectively wielded oil as a weapon was in 1973, when the Arab members of OPEC blocked exports to the U.S., driving up prices by something like 2,000% over the next decade.

• Countries learned the hard way then that the oil market is global, and, like it or not, pain or pressure in one part of the world redounds on everyone.
• Instead of setting up a future where countries battled over barrels, cooperation was the lesson.
• "Multinational, international cooperation is preferable to individual action," Yergin says.

What to watch: The world is learning a different lesson now, former national security advisers from the Obama and George W. Bush administrations, contend in Foreign Affairs.

• "In today's fragmented, conflict-prone world, many may draw the opposite conclusion," write Jason Bordoff, former NSC energy adviser in the Obama administration, and Meghan O'Sullivan, an adviser under former President Bush.

The bottom line: Iran now realizes that it can wield the Strait of Hormuz as a new weapon, creating a huge rupture in a critical connection for global oil.

• The market may now be changed forever.

The fate of the "petrodollar" also hangs in the background of all this.

How it works: The term refers to the fact that oil trades globally in dollars: billions and billions of them spent every day all around the world.

• The oil market creates a permanent, built-in global demand for dollars.
• It's a big reason the U.S. currency sits at the center of the world financial system.
• "When you think about the dollar as the world's dominant currency, the petrodollar is right at the heart of that," says Edward Fishman, author of "Chokepoints" and director of the Center for Geoeconomics at the Council on Foreign Relations.

The intrigue: There are a few risks now. Iran currently sells oil priced in the Chinese currency, the yuan, and if sanctions lift, it could start selling even more oil that is not denominated in dollars.

• Plus, Iran is also seeking to charge a toll on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
• There's talk of the toll being charged in yuan or crypto.
• A non-dollar toll would be a threat to the petrodollar system, says Fishman.

Zoom in: There's a lot of nervousness among global companies trying to navigate the situation in Iran, says Safiya Ghori-Ahmad, senior director with APCO Worldwide, a public affairs and strategic communications firm.

• "What that leads to over time is diversification away from the dollar."

Yes, but: It's something that economists have warned about for a long time, but for the moment the dollar dominates the oil market and economy. No one is saying this would change overnight.

• Iran may even be seeking to toll the strait in order to get more dollars, Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, tells Axios.

The bottom line: This is a defining moment for "Pax Dollar," says Ken Rogoff, the Harvard economist and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund who warned that the U.S. ripping up trade agreements could destabilize the dollar in a recent book, "Our Dollar, Your Problem."

• What's happening now, he says, is more momentous: "This is really bigger than 'Liberation Day.'"

The share of adults age 55 and up in the workforce is at its lowest level in two decades, as more baby boomers age out of their working years.

Why it matters: The growing population of seniors — the youngest boomers are now 61 — is one of two huge demographic forces hitting the labor market, as evidenced in last week's jobs report.

• The other is the big decline in immigration.

The big picture: These big shifts explain a great deal about the slowing job market.

Between the lines: The change in the senior workforce is entirely driven by demographics, explained economist Jed Kolko in a post this week.

• Peak boomers are now aged 65-69, so the age 55+ cohort is increasingly weighted toward these retirees.
• When talking about trends with older workers, "don't overlook demographics!" he writes.

Zoom in: Thanks to rising home and equity values, many older folks stopped working in the pandemic and subsequent years.

• That trend has only accelerated as the boomer generation gets older.

The intrigue: The Wall Street Journal also recently reported that some older workers are leaving the job market rather than deal with the sweeping disruption brought on by AI.

• Others simply join the ranks of the laid-off and can't find another job, given the challenges older workers face.

The bottom line: Still, AI departures are minor compared with the population dynamics in play.