Ukraine's drone attacks on refineries have hammered Russia's oil infrastructure, creating an economic shock that is increasingly visible worldwide, including in the U.S.

Why it matters: The effectiveness of the Ukrainian drone campaign is driving up world energy prices already elevated by the Iran war.

By the numbers: U.S. diesel prices edged above $5 a gallon yesterday, after Russia banned exports of the fuel last week.

• The price rise reflects a global scramble for supplies of a fuel crucial to industries such as agriculture, construction and ground transportation.

Between the lines: Russia's ban on exports is what poker players might call "a tell," hinting at the intensity of the current turmoil in the Russian economy.

• Such tea leaf reading is required, as Moscow has tried to obscure the war's impact on its economy since it launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
• Russia has stopped publicly reporting much of its economic data. Some Western intelligence services think the numbers it does report are manipulated to present a healthier picture to the outside world.
• But the current crisis is tough to keep under wraps.

Catch up quick: In a report last week, the International Energy Agency said:

• "Since August 2025, at least 100 strikes against Russian refineries have been recorded, with the pace of attacks increasing in recent months. In June alone, at least 10 strikes on refineries were reported."
• "Almost every large refinery in the western part of Russia has been hit by drones. ... Attacks continued through June and into July, with many refineries being hit multiple times."

What they're saying: "In some regions, drivers have queued for days, fuel sales have been rationed, and stations—including those operated by major retailers—have temporarily run dry. Retail prices have risen sharply, with some independent stations reportedly charging 50% or more above normal levels," Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities research at JPMorgan, wrote in a note last week.

• "The disruption has now spread well beyond private motorists. Agriculture, public transport, utilities, logistics and small businesses are increasingly affected, marking a shift from consumer inconvenience to broader operational disruption across the economy," she added.
• Reuters reports that Russia plans to import more gasoline from India because of the widespread outages at its own refineries.
• The government is considering rationing fuel to prioritize food delivery to grocery stores. And rising fuel costs could be a challenge for the coming Russian harvest, analysts say.

The big picture: Meanwhile, Russia's traditional diesel customers — which include large emerging markets like Brazil — are scrambling to secure supplies of their own, with many turning to the U.S.

• Foreign buying is helping to push up prices for Americans.

What we're watching: Whether Ukraine can sustain its drone campaign despite the unexpected dismissal of its innovative 35-year-old defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, who is seen by some as an architect of the nation's use of drones.

SpaceX closed below its IPO price yesterday, after the stock declined for the eighth time in nine sessions.

Why it matters: The selloff suggests that investors' knees have gone somewhat wobbly, as the first restrictions on selling — known as lockups — are set to be lifted in less than a month.

The latest: The stock closed at $131.11 yesterday.

• That's down 42% from its intraday high of $225.64 reached on June 16.
• It's also below the stock's symbolically important $135 offering price.

Zoom in: According to SEC filings, up to 1.37 billion shares could hit the market starting in the days after SpaceX reports second-quarter results, which is projected to be on Aug. 6, according to FactSet.

• That includes 911.5 million of class A common shares.
• And it could include an additional 455.8 million shares if the stock price meets certain conditions. (The shares would have to close at or above $175.50 on a certain number of trading days surrounding the Q2 earnings release.)

Reality check: The actual SpaceX IPO — the largest ever, raising $86 billion — involved the sale of only 639 million shares.

• That means the first lockup expiration could roughly quadruple the supply of tradable SpaceX shares.

The intrigue: Will the buying public be eager to buy them? Especially after the recent drop?

Between the lines: The SpaceX IPO last month was a masterpiece of financial engineering.

• SpaceX CEO Elon Musk was able to generate a surge of retail interest.
• The company was also fast-tracked into some key indexes, like the Nasdaq 100, ensuring some steady purchases from index-based investors.
• Those factors, along with a surge of online hype and a relatively constrained amount of stock to sell — about 5% of all SpaceX shares — generated more than a satisfying pop in the price.
• At its closing high, the company was valued at $2.64 trillion, on paper.

Yes, but: That valuation always deserved to be viewed pretty skeptically.

• All things being equal, the constrained supply of stock in the face of strong demand results in an elevated price and a potential overvaluation of the company.

The bottom line: As more SpaceX shares are released into the wild, we'll get a more accurate picture of what the market thinks SpaceX's "true value" is.