Axios Markets

February 18, 2025
☕️ Welcome back from the long weekend! We hope you got a little break from the news.
- Today we're digging into payments, and how early DOGE moves are raising serious questions about the sanctity of the nation's money infrastructure.
- Plus: Speaking of Elon Musk, the shine's off Tesla lately.
All in 1,210 words, a 4½-minute read.
1 big thing: DOGE threatens fragile system
As a series of recent books has detailed, successive U.S. administrations this century have shown an unprecedented willingness to use payments systems against foreign adversaries. Now, the Trump administration may be taking certain pages from the playbook domestically.
Why it matters: At stake is the security and trustworthiness of the largest and most important payments system in the world, one that was already fraying around the edges even before President Trump took office.
- Experts say there's no precedent for what Elon Musk's DOGE is doing with regard to federal payments.
Driving the news: When it reversed an $80 million payment that FEMA made to New York City in early February, the U.S. government used a known weakness in the Automated Clearing House (ACH), one of the most common forms of payment in America.
- Whether the U.S. government's ACH reversal was legal will be for a court to decide. New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, for one, is adamant the government seized the money held in a Citibank account "with no legal authority," per a press conference last week.
- Legal or not, however, the reversal undoubtedly happened, which means it's now a proven tool in DOGE's arsenal when it comes to rescinding any spending the White House considers wasteful or unlawful.
- ACH's security issues are well documented. According to the AFP Payments Fraud Dashboard, 33% of all organizations experienced ACH debit fraud in 2024, rising to 41% of large organizations with more than 100 payments accounts and revenue of at least $1 billion.
- The White House did not respond to requests for comment.
How it works: ACH, a payments system born in the 1970s, was designed as a way for banks to transfer money between each other. It was built on a basis of mutual trust that every participating institution will adhere to rules codified by Nacha, the operator.
- Today, it's the system that allows credit card companies to debit a different amount from your account every month or, for that matter, allows fraudsters to pay their bills with other people's money.
- Because mistakes can be made, ACH transactions are reversible in cases where there was a clear clerical error, like when the wrong account was credited, for instance, or a single transaction was inadvertently duplicated.
- When the government reverses an ACH transaction, says Yesha Yadav of Vanderbilt Law School, it has to notify the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service as to why it is seeking reversal, and has to certify the grounds on which it is doing so.
- Whether the requisite notifications took place in this case is unclear. DOGE and FEMA did not reply to requests for comment. Nacha said it could not provide any information on what happened.
Zoom in: Different banks process ACH reversals in different ways, but large ones like Citibank often let the money leave the account automatically, even in some cases where there isn't enough money in the account.
- As Lander has explained in interviews, the Citibank account targeted by DOGE only had $1 million in it as of the Feb. 11 reversal, but was attached to a large overdraft facility. When $80.5 million was withdrawn from the account, Citibank automatically created a $79.5 million overdraft on a pre-existing line of credit. (The $15,000 overdraft fee was refunded by the bank.)
- "I think it is dubious, in practice, to view an overdraft as readily available liquidity" for Nacha purposes, Yadav says. Still, that's what happened, and Citibank is indemnified by the government under 31 CFR § 210.6(f), the law governing federal ACH reversals.
- Citibank declined to make a public statement on the matter.
2. Controlling the power of the purse
ACH is one of many payments systems that DOGE has access to, and it's not even the main one that gives Musk's cost-cutting team the ability to block congressionally mandated expenditures like the FEMA transfer to New York City.
Context: From the earliest days of this administration, Trump has signaled a desire to challenge Congress' constitutionally enshrined power of the purse.
- The easiest and most effective way to do that is to control the purse strings — to commandeer payment systems to prevent money from going where Congress has said it must go.
The big picture: DOGE has sought to use Treasury's payments system to prevent disbursements to USAID, per the New York Times. The career civil servant charged with maintaining the system's integrity, David Lebryk, resigned under pressure in January.
- Replacing him with a political appointee, as Treasury has reportedly done, "raises serious concerns, including the risk that payments will be illegally stopped," per the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
What they're saying: "Musk's DOGE is weaponizing the U.S. government's payment, information, and physical infrastructure," write Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman, political scientists who specialize in the payments system, "carrying out an end run around the political structures that are supposed to restrain unilateral executive action."
- Once DOGE can access both Treasury's system and ACH, that "creates one way to leverage pretty comprehensive control over the payments system," Yadav tells Axios.
The bottom line: "ACH is being used by federal government to police other agencies and enforce compliance with central aims, without us knowing if a clear statutory basis has been given or even if the Nacha rules are being followed," Yadav says. "This feels like a first."
3. Tesla's slowly fading Trump bump
Amid blowback to Musk's political views, along with a series of worrying sales indicators, Tesla has lost more than a quarter of its value from its post-Trump election peak.
Why it matters: Musk's net worth has ballooned since he became the self-proclaimed "first buddy" to Trump, and investors in his companies have been betting they could come along for the ride.
The big picture: Tesla's stock has always been tied closely to futuristic stuff like self-driving cars, but the company has given investors little hope for meaningful near-term revenue growth.
- Tesla's only two vehicles that sell in mass quantities — the Model Y crossover and Model 3 sedan — haven't been fully redesigned in ages, making them old body styles by automotive standards.
Zoom in: Recent reports indicate weakening sales in regions populated by folks who don't appreciate Musk's DOGE turn.
- The FT reports Tesla sales in Germany, where Musk is supporting a hard-right party, fell almost 60% in January compared with a year earlier.
- Tesla registrations in the once-enthusiastic California market fell 12% in 2024, Reuters reports.
By the numbers: Tesla shares are down nearly 12% this year and 26% from their peak in December, though they're still up 42% since Election Day.
- The stock is likely struggling in part because of volume "weakness" and because "not much more hype can come out" on Tesla's self-driving car ambitions until the company debuts its robotaxi business later this year, Evercore ISI analyst Chris McNally writes.
Yes, but: Tesla bulls still believe Musk's ties to Trump will pay off in the form of favorable treatment for efforts like autonomous vehicles.
- "Musk being heavily involved in the Trump White House was still the 'bet for the ages' in our view," Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives writes.
- Musk did not respond to a request for comment.
The bottom line: Any signs that Tesla is trading on the fundamentals would be a surprising turn of events for a stock that has rarely done so.
Thanks to Ben Berkowitz for editing and Anjelica Tan for copy editing. See you tomorrow!
Sign up for Axios Markets






