As the Iran war drags on, it's increasingly clear that there is likely no going back for the energy market.

Why it matters: Oil and gas prices will be higher for longer than investors expected, and the market dynamics are shifting — as countries and companies look for alternative sources of energy or oil and for new ways to move it around the world.

The big picture: Wall Street doesn't seem to care a ton that the biggest energy shock in decades is permanently altering the underpinnings of arguably the biggest and most important commodity market on the planet.

• Although there have been some signs this week that analysts are waking up to the new reality, stocks are still at record high levels.
• There are reasons that this makes more sense than it would at first seem, as we explain below.

Between the lines: The war is catalyzing all kinds of changes because players realize that they can no longer depend on free movement through the critical Strait of Hormuz and that prices will be higher for longer as a result.

• That gives everyone more incentives to drill, open up new pipelines, ink energy deals, etc.

Case in point: A sustained oil price of $100 a barrel could unlock up to 2 million more barrels per day of crude from South American countries, a recent analysis from Rystad found.

• "The Middle East conflict has done more than spike oil prices — it has exposed how dangerously concentrated global supply chains are around the Strait of Hormuz," the analysts wrote.

State of play: The United Arab Emirates said yesterday that it is pulling out of OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

• The UAE's departure is the clearest sign yet of how the Iran conflict is permanently shifting dynamics in the market.

Follow the money: Shell just announced its largest deal in over a decade to acquire Canadian oil and gas producer Arc Resources.

• Gulf states are looking for new pipelines to get around the strait.

The intrigue: Given all this disruption, there has been an expectation that oil prices would be higher and stocks would sink — instead the market's been sanguine. Stocks are hitting new highs!

• Citi analysts explain why: Coming into the conflict, oil inventories were high, and the release of reserves from the International Energy Agency's member states helped smooth out the shock.

What to watch: Wall Street analysts do seem to be coming to the realization that higher prices stemming from the conflict are going to be longer lasting.

• Citi raised its forecast this week. And Goldman Sachs did, too, predicting the price of a barrel of Brent crude, the global benchmark, would average $90 a barrel in the fourth quarter, up from $80.
• The forecast is now nearly $30 higher than it was before the war started.
• Those numbers are their base case, which now assumes that the Strait of Hormuz reopens at the end of June. If the reopening is at end of July, they predict $100 oil. And in the worst-case scenario, the strait never fully gets back to normal, and oil remains elevated at $120.

Nearly half of American families with young children live in a "child care desert" — a region with a shortage of licensed day care providers, according to an analysis from the liberal Center for American Progress out this morning.

Why it matters: Quality child care is a crucial benefit for parents with jobs — most parents, in other words — and shortages are a financial and logistical headache for families and a drag on the workforce and economy.

By the numbers: Last year, 46% of children ages 6 and younger lived in an area where there are more than three kids per available licensed child care slot.

• That's an improvement from 2018, when slightly more than half of kids lived in child care deserts, per the analysis, which uses census data as well as state-level data on care providers.
• The change is likely partly due to a surge in pandemic-era federal government funding that has since dried up.

Reality check: CAP is looking only at licensed providers and doesn't take into account informal care networks like family and friends or unlicensed helpers.

• The analysis assumes families want care that's close to home — 20 minutes or less. Some families may be OK with longer drives or arrangements near their workplace.

Between the lines: Child care is part of the private sector. But typical supply and demand market dynamics don't function as they do for other parts of the economy.

• Providers are limited in how much money they can charge families, who can't afford high tuitions and who may have the option of "free care" from a parent.
• That means day cares are limited in how much they can pay staff — driving more shortages.
• "It's a broken market," says Hailey Gibbs, associate director of early childhood policy at CAP.

Go deeper: Search the interactive database.

Does Big Tech still have its magic market mojo? Today will be a big test, with four of the Magnificent Seven reporting quarterly results after the market close.

Why it matters: Investors will be watching for evidence that the companies are spending to be profitable leaders in the AI transformation — or are just overspending.

Catch up quick: Tech shares stumbled in the first quarter amid concerns over debt and hype in the companies' data center buildouts. The selloff made the stocks a bit more appealing in April.

• This evening, four tech behemoths — representing 22% of the S&P 500's market cap, per Deutsche Bank — report quarterly earnings: Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft.
• Apple reports tomorrow.
• Tesla reported last week; the seventh of the Mag 7 and the biggest of Big Tech, Nvidia, reports on May 20.