Axios Markets

December 20, 2023
👋 🍳Last newsletter for the year, folks! Regular readers know we love charts and today we're closing out 2023 with six that tell the tale of an economy that defied expectations this year.
- Plus, we talk about eggs because the puns are irresistible (the topic's meaningful, too, we promise). All in 947 words, 4 minutes.
We'll be back in your inbox on Jan. 2 and hope you all have a wonderful holiday break.
1 big thing: 📊 The economy grew


America's economic growth vastly outpaced expectations, Matt writes.
- Why it matters: The surprising pep in the economy helped keep corporate profits up and unemployment way down.
Between the lines: Even more surprising was the fact inflation slowed down sharply despite such robust GDP numbers — delivering (so far) the "soft landing" that economists once thought nearly impossible, and setting the stage for a strong recovery in the stock market.
2. 🏀 The big market rebound


The S&P 500 pulled off a near-total recovery from the interest rate-induced ugliness of 2022, Matt writes.
- The benchmark index is just 0.6% shy of a new all-time high. The 24% gain follows a 20% walloping last year.
The big picture: Besides being the repository for more than $35 trillion of investments from individuals and institutions, the stock market is traditionally a major driver of the overall mood of American consumers.
State of play: After an autumn stumble tied to a sharp upturn in Treasury yields, the market headed into Q4 with significant momentum.
- Behind the final surge: Wall Street came to believe first that the Fed's rate hikes were over — and more recently that significant cuts are on the way in 2024.
3. 🤖 AI goes boom


The AI boom arrived, embodied by chip giant Nvidia, Matt writes.
Why it matters: While much of the stock market's momentum was provided by expectations that rate hikes would soon end, excitement over artificial intelligence — stemming from the arrival of ChatGPT — offered investors a focal point for speculative excitement.
Zoom in: The poster child for the AI-oriented investor is chipmaker Nvidia, which is raking in massive profits right now by selling the silicon — essentially the picks and shovels of the AI gold rush — to those making big bets on the technology that may or may not eventually work out.
- Nvidia's profits have risen a ridiculous 1200%, and its market value has soared to more than $1.2 trillion.
The bottom line: A year ago, Nvidia had little name recognition outside the tech world — now, it's among the ranks of corporate giants like Apple, Alphabet and Amazon whose valuations dominate the U.S. stock market.
4. Egg price freakout


Egg prices peaked at $4.82 a dozen in January and then started, er, cracking, but falling prices for these staple ovoids didn't curb the Great American Egg Price Freakout of 2023, Emily writes.
Why it matters: That was the story of inflation this year. Yes, price growth slowed remarkably and no, people didn't quite notice — prices are still actually quite high.
- Also, the surge in egg prices, though undoubtedly painful for many, was just kind of entertaining — especially for beleaguered financial journalists hungry to cook up egg-cellent yolks, er jokes.
- Rising egg prices hatched some of the best inflation memes of our time — the potato industry even tried to make decorating Easter potatoes a thing. (C'mon. Stop.)

5. Home sales dried up


This was the year the housing market froze — some would argue it broke, Emily writes.
- With average rates on 30-year mortgages peaking at nearly 8% in October, home sales hit their lowest level since 2010 — when the U.S. was digging out of a real estate crash that broke the global economy.
The big picture: This time the story was all about rates. Not just the Fed's historic run of rate hikes, but the remarkable period of low and falling rates that preceded it.
- Most existing homeowners took advantage of those low rates — culminating in the fall of 2021 when you could get a 30-year mortgage for 2.8%!
- When rates started finally climbing again, those homeowners didn't want to sell, or couldn't afford to, since that would mean giving up their amazing mortgage.
The bottom line: With so little buying or selling happening — it's hard to get a clear picture of the housing market these days. Home prices haven't moved much — you'd expect them to fall, in a higher-rate environment.
The big question: If the Fed does start to cut rates next year, as many predict, will the market spring back to life?
- The NAR sees existing home sales rising 14% next year. The data on November sales will be out later this morning.
6. Don't forget the banking crisis


In case you've forgotten, we had a full-fledged banking crisis this year, Axios' Felix Salmon writes. Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic, Signature, Silvergate — all of them went to zero, amid real concerns about the solvency of the U.S. banking system.
Why it matters: The crisis seemingly dissipated as fast as it arrived, judging by the amount of emergency lending being done by the Fed.
Between the lines: A core function at any central bank is being the lender of last resort — "lending freely against good collateral at a penalty rate," in the immortal words of Walter Bagehot,
- The degree to which that's happening is a very good indication of the amount of stress in the banking system.
- The Fed's discount window is its main way of lending to creditworthy banks during a crisis — and those crises often coincide with recessions.
By the numbers: The amount the Fed lent out in discount window primary credit peaked at $111 billion in October 2008, during the global financial crisis, and then again at $51 billion in March 2020, at the height of COVID-19 panic.
- In March 2023, this year's banking crisis exceeded both previous peaks, topping out at $153 billion.
- Notably, however, there was no recession, and the crisis rapidly dissipated, partly thanks to the Fed.
💠Felix's thought bubble: The crisis was partially caused by Fed actions, at least insofar as rapidly rising yields caused the value of banks' bond and loan portfolios — their assets — to plunge. But the crisis was also successfully contained by the Fed.
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Axios Markets is edited by Kate Marino and copy edited by Mickey Meece.
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