Meta's Threads, with 100 million users in less than a week, is a hit by any standard — but what Threads might be beyond that is anyone's guess, Axios' Ina Fried reports.

Be smart: Threads today is largely a clone of Twitter, but the format won't define the product — its success will be determined by who uses it, and for what.

Driving the news: Threads launched last Wednesday and has been adopted faster than any online service to date, far surpassing even ChatGPT.

• Those who have joined up include a whole host of consumer brands, celebrities including Kim Kardashian and Shakira, influencers such as Mr. Beast, along with vast numbers of Instagram enthusiasts and disaffected Twitter users.

Yes, but: Meta started with a huge advantage — a base of more than 1 billion people already using Instagram.

The big picture: In some ways, Threads is already more than Twitter.

• While Twitter has a strong following in certain areas, such as sports, politics and current events, Threads draws from Instagram's far more well-rounded user base — giving it less of a food-fight feel.
• Meta also knows how to monetize its base of active users far better than Twitter has ever been able to do, and has both robust relationships with, and tools for, advertisers.

In other ways, Threads still has a lot of catching up to do when it comes to features.

• It has no hashtags or direct messages.
• The absence of a chronological feed showing everything posted by the people you've chosen to follow also makes it much more akin to Facebook and Instagram — both of which have a much less timely feel than Twitter.
• Threads also isn't global in the way that Twitter is. It hasn't launched at all in the EU amid regulators' concerns over data privacy.

What Meta's saying: "The goal is to create a public square for communities on Instagram that never really embraced Twitter and for communities on Twitter (and other platforms) that are interested in a less angry place for conversations, but not all of Twitter," Instagram chief Adam Mosseri wrote in a thread on Threads.

• "Politics and hard news are inevitably going to show up on Threads — they have on Instagram as well to some extent — but we're not going to do anything to encourage those verticals."

Between the lines: If Meta doesn't cultivate Threads as a forum for real-time dialogue on current events, it may never be the kind of online place people flock to in times of breaking news or political upheaval, as Twitter was during the Arab Spring or even the recent Wagner Group mutiny in Russia.

• That sort of content doesn't drive advertising revenue — but it's what gave Twitter a role in the global mediasphere disproportionate to its size.
• Threads doesn't need to replicate Twitter's driving-the-news function, but it will need some kind of defining trait, and that will probably emerge over time based not on who has downloaded the app but who keeps using it.
• Even Mosseri said he has no idea how many people will keep using Threads.

The bottom line: How Meta chooses to convert what is now essentially a user base of lookie-loos into dedicated Thread-ers will shape the nature and staying power of the latest Twitter rival.

In other Threads news: Threads will get a dose of Instagram-style branded content as Meta rolls out tools for sponsors, a source told Axios' Eleanor Hawkins and Sara Fischer.

Regulating artificial intelligence through a licensing regime is gaining steam in Congress, but some experts warn that could derail innovation and competition, Axios' Maria Curi reports.

Driving the news: Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) calls for a licensing regime in his AI legislation framework and told Axios he has discussed the idea with Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.).

• OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Microsoft president Brad Smith made waves in May with their back-to-back calls to grant the federal government powers to issue and revoke licenses for the most advanced AI models.

Reality check: Smaller companies and researchers say a cumbersome licensing regime would shut out players that don't have the resources to comply.

• Paul Barrett, deputy director of the NYU Stern Center for Business and Human Rights, said he worries that when specific legislation is introduced, companies will say every proposal is not quite right (as they have for social media bills).

Microsoft's blueprint acknowledges the challenge of defining exactly what a "highly capable" model is.

• Stability AI public policy head Ben Brooks said it's key that regulators know exactly what they're measuring for before thinking about licensing.

Threat level: Some worry open source models would be the first casualty of a licensing regime because, by their nature, such models are decentralized and a single point of control would likely be necessary to obtain a license.

What we're watching: Where giants like Amazon, which has a partnership with Stability AI, and Meta land on this issue and the safeguards they push for will indicate what's to come for the open source community.

A deal allowing tech companies to send user data between the EU and the U.S. was completed Monday, resolving a disagreement over the ability of American intelligence agencies to access EU resident data, Axios' Ashley Gold reports.

Why it matters: The U.S. and EU have been hammering out different versions of a transatlantic data sharing agreement for years.

• Two previous agreements failed after being challenged and struck down by a European court.

The big picture: The EU's tighter data privacy protections put American companies at risk while sending European user data back to the U.S. The agreement aims to provide these firms with standards they can pledge to meet to comply with EU rules.

What they're saying: "This flow of data underpins the $7 trillion-dollar U.S.-EU economic relationship and provides vital benefits to citizens and businesses on both sides of the Atlantic," reads a statement from the Justice Department.

• "The importance of today’s decision to implement the EU-U.S. Data Privacy Framework cannot be overestimated,” said John Miller, senior vice president for policy for the Information Technology Industry Council.

Details: Compared to past agreements, the EU-U.S. Data Privacy Framework has clearer policies around when U.S. intelligence agencies can obtain personal EU resident information and how that process can be appealed.

Flashback: Without a workable data agreement in place, Ireland's Data Protection Commission fined Meta $1.3 billion for transferring the personal data of European users to the U.S. in May.

The other side: Austrian Activist Max Schrems, who sued over the last two agreements for what he saw as inadequate privacy protections, said his pro-privacy group would challenge the decision.

On Tap

• Fortune's Brainstorm Tech runs through Wednesday in Park City, Utah. Livestream here.
• TrustCon runs through Thursday in San Francisco.

Trading Places

• Élie Girard, former CEO at Atos, has joined quantum company Alice & Bob as executive chairman.

ICYMI

• Programs to detect AI usage discriminate against the language skills of non-native English speakers. (The Guardian)
• The World Food Programme will begin aid deliveries with autonomous vehicles in conflict zones starting in 2024. (Reuters)

All hail the return of urban river swimming!

• The former open water swimmer in me urges you to check out Munich's favorite playground and plans to make the Seine swimmable for the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris.