If you're going to buy a house, be prepared to stay long-term — or lose money.

State of play: The double whammy of high interest rates and record-high home prices means it could take decades to break even on a purchase made today, Axios' Brianna Crane writes.

Why it matters: The pendulum has swung toward renting as the most cost-effective housing choice, at least in the short term.

By the numbers: It can take up to 21 years to break even on an Indianapolis-area purchase, per Zillow data exclusively shared with Axios.

• That's when buying a $273,000 home with a 3% down payment.
• A traditional 20% down payment gives you an 18.7-year break-even horizon, per Zillow.

💭 James' thought bubble: This is a good time to purge your brain of the idea that homebuying is an investment.

• Instead, think of housing as a very expensive consumer good — more like a car.
• A clear-eyed buyer chooses a car based on whether they like it and can afford it, without any expectation of a future return.
• Approaching homebuying like this can help you stay sane.

Zoom out: Chicago and Cleveland are the only other large U.S. metro areas where it would take 20 years or longer to break even on a typical home purchase, per Zillow.

• The shortest break-even period is between six and eight years in San Francisco, depending on down payment size.

Context: Historically, experts have said you need to stay in your home for at least five years to break even.

• In recent years, home purchases have often turned profitable within months as prices skyrocketed.
• Now, with mortgage rates bouncing between 7% and 8%, new homeowners will need to stay put far longer to avoid going underwater.

Yes, but: There are exceptions to these timelines based on many factors, including location, home features and future refinancing opportunities.

• Cash buyers are still flipping homes in Indianapolis, albeit at a slower rate than in recent years and at reduced profits, per real estate data firm ATTOM Data Solutions.

The bottom line: Whether it's a "good" or "bad" time to buy a house depends on your circumstances and expectations.

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The flip side of the tough housing market is that most Indianapolis-area sellers are still doing very, very well.

Driving the news: Sellers reaped a median capital gain, or profit, of $118,000 on homes sold between August and October, per data Redfin shared with Axios.

The big picture: U.S. homeowners are sitting on record-high equity after more than a decade of price growth.

What we're watching: An increasing number of sellers are losing money, though, Axios' Brianna Crane writes.

• About 2% of Indianapolis-area sellers lost money between August and October, up from 0.93% during the same period a year earlier.
• The median loss was $31,500.

Between the lines: As more recent buyers decide to sell, losses likely will become more common for reasons described above.

💡 Electric utility AES Indiana has reached a settlement in its rate case to increase customers' bills by about 7%, or roughly $9.50 per month. AES had been seeking a rate increase of double that amount. (IndyStar)

🔍 Indiana's workplace safety regulations are receiving national scrutiny after the death of a 20-year-old man in a Fort Wayne Amazon warehouse resulted in a $7,000 fine, the state maximum. (Washington Post)

📺 WISH-TV anchor Kylie Conway is leaving today after a 10-year run at the station. The two-time regional Emmy Award winner has not said where she's going next. (IBJ)

We've dedicated space in this newsletter before to the, ahem, burgeoning local news scene in Indianapolis.

Yes, but: The rise of new local news outlets alongside newspaper stalwarts is an exception to the rule in America right now.

Driving out the news: The decline of local newspapers accelerated so rapidly in 2023 that analysts now believe the U.S. will have lost one-third of the newspapers it had as of 2005 by the end of next year — rather than in 2025, as originally predicted.

Why it matters: Most communities that lose a local newspaper in America usually do not get a replacement, even online, reports Axios' Sara Fischer.

What's happening: Over the past two years, newspapers continued to vanish at an average rate of more than two per week, leaving 204 U.S. counties, or 6.4%, without any local news outlet.

Zoom in: More than half of Hoosier counties have, at most, one local news source.

Be smart: Minorities and poorer people without access to high-speed broadband are far more likely to live in areas that are news deserts or at risk of becoming one.

The bottom line: The divide between those with access to quality local news and those who don't is growing in America.

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As the temperatures drop, there's nothing better than a drink that keeps you warm inside and out.

Look no further than glühwein, a German mulled wine brewed with fruit, spices and served hot at multiple Indy outdoor holiday markets.

What they're saying: Its name translates to "glow wine" because that's how it makes you feel — lit from within!

Brew of the week: Glühwein, red wine that's usually spiced with holiday flavors like cinnamon, cloves, star anise and fruit.

• The version served at the Athenaeum Foundation's Christkindlmarkt downtown is also steeped with orange peel.
• 💭 Arika's thought bubble: Served hot, it kept my hands warm while I browsed the other booths for Christmas gifts and had just a touch of sweetness from a bit of brown sugar.

Plus: At least five vendors serve it at the Carmel Christkindlmarkt.