Latino voters aren't realigning — they're fragmenting.

Why it matters: This fracture could reshape how the 2026 election plays out in Texas, with the Hispanic electorate very much in play.

• "It's a dealignment. It's not a realignment," GOP consultant and author Mike Madrid tells Axios.

The big picture: After moving toward President Trump in 2024, the nation's fastest-growing electorate is splintering into competing political identities, with no single partisan anchor after decades as a reliably Democratic bloc. They are:

1. MAGA Hispanics align with Trump-era Republican politics, often driven by economic populism, cultural conservatism and anti-establishment sentiment rather than traditional GOP ideology.

• This group includes working-class men, small-business owners and evangelical or Catholic voters. They emphasize order, masculinity, religion and skepticism toward elites.

2. Movement Progressives are anchored in left-leaning social and economic movements, including labor rights, racial justice, climate activism and student debt relief.

• They skew younger, urban and college-educated, and are more likely to be women and to vote. But they're quick to disengage if candidates fall short of stated values.

3. Disillusioned Nonvoters are politically aware but largely disengaged, often sitting out elections entirely or voting inconsistently.

• They're overrepresented among working-class, young voters and those who often don't go to the polls.

Zoom in: The shifting electorate could also affect Houston-area congressional elections this year after Texas Republicans redrew district maps to favor the GOP in 2025.

• Latinos comprised 75% of Houston's 29th Congressional District before redistricting but now comprise nearly 59% — and only 56% of them are of voting age, compared to 72% before.
• Houston's 18th Congressional District used to be 43% Latino (with 40% of Latinos over the voting age) and is now 36% Latino with 32% of voting age.
• Roughly three redrawn districts saw their Latino population increase, including the 9th, which saw the percentage of Latinos grow from 39% to 62%. That district went from largely urban to rural.

What they're saying: "You can't just run one Latino message anymore and expect it to land," Democratic consultant Sisto Abeyta tells Axios.

Recent polling

👋 Shafaq here! With temperatures dipping into the 40s and 50s starting this weekend, now's an ideal time to try some Korean soup.

Dig in: Jang Guem, in Sterling Plaza in Asiatown, offers traditional Korean dishes, including tofu stews, barbecue and bulgogi.

What to order: I tried the mushroom tofu soup ($14). It arrived bubbling hot, perfect to cook the raw egg given on the side. A large platter of banchan came alongside it, including kimchi, potatoes and more.

• The broth was thoughtfully seasoned. Each spoonful had a mix of silky tofu, chewy umami mushrooms, vegetables, rice and soup — plenty of enjoyable textures.
• The vegetable pancake ($14) was good, too. I usually prefer mine a little crispier, but this one was generously stuffed.

If you go: 9896 Bellaire Blvd., suite J

📧 Have a restaurant recommendation? Email me at [email protected]

🍎 Houston ISD's state-appointed board of trustees will vote this month whether to close 12 schools for the upcoming school year. (Houston Chronicle)

🤖 Houston-based Cloverleaf Infrastructure is drawing takeover interest as it lines up massive deals to power data centers crucial to the AI boom. (Axios)

🍩 Shipley Do-Nuts announced a major expansion into Las Vegas and New Orleans. (Chron)

Houstonians bid farewell to DJ Michael "5000" Watts this week. (Houston Public Media)

🎥 See "Romeo + Juliet" at the River Oaks Theatre, part of their Essentials series.

• Tickets are $16. 9:30pm tomorrow.

📚 Check out all things books, from appraisals to rare finds, at the Houston Book Show at Winter Street Studios.

• Admission is $5. 10am-5pm Saturday and 10am-3pm Sunday.

👨🏿‍✈️ Learn about Houston's Black aviation history at the 1940 Air Terminal Museum.

• Admission to the museum ($10 for adults and $5 for kids) is required. Noon Saturday.

🎉 Celebrate Rice Village blues bar The Big Easy's 32nd anniversary with a night of music.

• Cover is $10. 7:30pm Saturday.

🌱 Volunteer to help re-home native prairie plants at the Columbia Tap Trail's Texas AIDS Memorial Garden.

• Registration is required. 9am Sunday.

More new moms are having kids solo in their 40s, with births to unmarried women 40 and over doubling since 2007.

By the numbers: In the U.S, more than 1% of babies were born to unmarried women 40 and older in 2024, per CDC data, a small but fast-growing slice.

• And overall, about 40% of babies are born to unmarried women.

Yes, but: "Unmarried women" can include cohabitating couples.

Zoom in: In Texas, 0.9% of babies born in 2024 were to unmarried women 40 and older.

• That accounts for 3,512 births, up from 1,513 in 2007.

The intrigue: Small studies suggest children in single-mom-by-choice households fare as well as those in heterosexual two-parent families. Researchers also find these mothers tend to cultivate broader social support networks.

• Outcomes in divorced families look different.