🐪 It's hump day.

🌧️ Today's weather: Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, with a high around 90.

🗣️ Situational awareness: Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico will participate in a CNN town hall today at 7pm in Fort Worth.

• Republican opponent Ken Paxton has not confirmed participation.

Today’s newsletter is 940 words — a 3.5-minute read.

Texas Democrats are for the first time polling slightly ahead of Republicans in several down-ballot statewide races, according to the final University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll ahead of the November election.

Why it matters: Republicans in Texas have dominated statewide elections for more than three decades, but the latest poll, out this morning, suggests Democrats are competitive in races beyond the closely watched U.S. Senate contest.

Driving the news: Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico maintains a slim lead, 50%-47%, over Republican Ken Paxton, and most voters appear to have made up their minds.

• 91% of Talarico supporters and 84% of Paxton supporters said they were not very likely or not at all likely to change their minds.
• The survey of 861 likely Texas voters in that contest has a margin of error of 3.34%.

What they're saying: "We're clearly in the most competitive cycle that we've seen in the state in a long time," Texas Politics Project director Jim Henson tells Axios.

• More than half of Democrats (53%) said they were extremely enthusiastic about voting in November, compared with 37% of Republicans.

The big picture: The poll of registered voters was conducted Sept. 25-Oct. 5 amid a costly advertising battle over Texas' U.S. Senate seat. In just 17 days last month, Texas PAC spent a staggering $131 million on ads and other activities to boost Paxton.

Zoom in: The poll also found Democrats holding narrow leads in other statewide contests:

• In the governor's race, Democrat Gina Hinojosa leads Republican incumbent Greg Abbott 49% to 48%.
• Democrat Vikki Goodwin leads Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick 49% to 46%.
• Democrat Nathan Johnson leads Republican Mayes Middleton 48% to 47% in the attorney general's race.
• All are within the margin of error.

Flashback: The final UT/Texas Politics Project polls before the last three U.S. Senate elections in Texas were within 3 points of the outcome.

• In the October 2024 poll, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz led Democrat Colin Allred by 8 points. Cruz won the election by 8.5 points.

Democrat Letitia Plummer leads Republican Orlando Sanchez by 7 percentage points in the race for Harris County judge, according to a new University of Houston Hobby School poll.

State of play: Plummer has support from 47% of likely voters, compared with 40% for Sanchez, with 13% undecided.

• The poll surveyed 2,750 Harris County likely voters Oct. 3-8 and has a margin of error of ±1.87 percentage points.

Between the lines: Plummer leads among women (54% to 34%), Black voters (86% to 8%) and Latino voters (48% to 38%), while Sanchez leads among white voters (52% to 35%) and voters over 55 (50% to 40%).

• "White voters and older voters were more likely to support the Republican candidate, but that couldn't offset the strong advantage Democratic candidates had with younger voters," Mark P. Jones, senior research fellow at the Hobby School, said in a statement.

The intrigue: 71% of voters say Harris County is headed in the wrong direction, and 72% disapprove of the county's recent property tax increase.

• "But that does not appear to have translated into a desire to reverse the county's Democratic tilt," said Renée Cross, senior executive director of the Hobby School.

In other county races: Democrat Adrian Garcia leads Republican Richard Vega 52% to 40% in the Precinct 2 commissioner race.

• In Precinct 4, Democrat Lesley Briones leads Republican Steve Radack 49% to 41%.

What's next: Early voting begins Monday ahead of the Nov. 3 election.

📰 Ken Paxton attended a 2024 New Year's Eve party in Dubai with his girlfriend Tracy Duhon and two fugitives from U.S. justice, according to court records and a video of the gathering reviewed by the Wall Street Journal, and confirmed by people familiar with the matter. (WSJ)

🏗️ The former Greenspoint Mall area in north Houston is slated to become the $150 million CityNorth Industrial Park, according to developers. (ABC13)

🏡 Beyoncé, Tina Knowles and Kelly Rowland attended a ribbon-cutting for the Knowles-Rowland House in Houston. (FOX 26)

👋 Shafaq here! A coworker was visiting Houston, which gave me the perfect excuse to check out Chrôma by the Menil.

Dig in: Chrôma opened this summer in the former Bistro Menil space. It's the latest restaurant from Houston chef Claire Smith, known for now-closed favorites Shade, Canopy and Alice Blue.

• The all-day menu brings back some popular dishes from her previous restaurants, including Alice Blue's chicken flautas.

My experience: I was immediately charmed by the cozy space, with its colorful pillows and inviting decor — fitting for the artistic neighborhood. It's the kind of place where you can ease into your morning with a newspaper — as one customer was doing — or catch up with a coworker, like I did.

• For my meal, I went with the server-recommended green egg frittata ($12), and it didn't disappoint. It was packed with vegetables, the egg whites were fluffy, and the feta added just the right amount of tang. It all felt very light and fresh.
• The seasonal pastries are also worth trying.

If you go: 1512 Sul Ross St.

Thanks to Bob Gee for editing this newsletter.

🌳 Shafaq can't wait for the highs to settle into the 80s so she can picnic under the trees at Menil Park — one of her favorite spots in Houston.