As Texas Republicans prepare for a U.S. Senate primary brawl, Democrats see an opportunity to end a three-decade losing streak.

Why it matters: Democrats haven't won a statewide office since 1994, but Republicans' vulnerability — exposed by state Attorney General Ken Paxton's primary challenge against Sen. John Cornyn — has energized the party to take a shot at the seat.

State of play: Former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke, who has been making stops across the state to talk to voters over the last two months, hasn't ruled out the possibility of a run.

• "With so many of our neighbors hurting right now, I'll continue standing up for the people of Texas — whether that's holding these town hall meetings, organizing and registering voters, or running to serve and deliver for every person in this state," O'Rourke tells Axios in an email.
• U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, who ran unsuccessfully against Sen. Ted Cruz last year, threw his hat in the ring Tuesday, joining retired NASA astronaut Terry Virts on Democratic side.
• Other potential contenders include U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro of San Antonio and state Rep. James Talarico of Austin.

By the numbers: O'Rourke ran for Senate in 2018, losing to Cruz by less than 3 percentage points. Cruz defeated Allred last year by more than 8 points.

What they're saying: University of Houston political scientist Brandon Rottinghaus tells Axios the race is shaping up to be Democrats' most promising shot in years — but only if they can close the enthusiasm gap and avoid fracturing during the primary.

• "This fast-forwards everyone's decisions," Rottinghaus says, following Allred's early entry.
• "There's an enthusiasm gap for Democrats that has to be very quickly narrowed — whether it's a candidate we've seen before or it's a candidate we haven't seen before. Democrats have to find somebody who can rally the base."

Zoom in

Politics are again heating up in Houston and Harris County.

Driving the news: Voters in the 18th Congressional District, a deeply Democratic-leaning district across a large swath of Houston, will vote for a replacement for the late U.S. Rep. Sylvester Turner during a special election Nov. 4.

• The seat has been vacant since Turner's death in March.

Who's in: The field consists of more than a dozen candidates, including frontrunners Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee, state Rep. Jolanda Jones and former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards.

• The special election will not include a primary. If a candidate does not receive more than 50% of the vote, the winner will be determined in a runoff election.

A few months later, voters will decide Democratic and Republican candidates for Harris County judge in the March 2026 primary elections.

The intrigue: It's unclear if two-term County Judge Lina Hidalgo, a Democrat, will run for reelection.

• The Democratic field includes former Houston Mayor Annise Parker, who announced her bid for the Democratic nomination in June, and Houston City Council Member Letitia Plummer, who announced she was running for the nomination this month after weeks of speculation.
• Erica Lee Carter — the daughter of former U.S. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee — said she's also planning to run for the Democratic nomination if Hidalgo chooses not to seek reelection.
• Candidates seeking the Republican nomination so far include Piney Point Village Mayor Aliza Dutt, businessman Warren Howell and former Harris County deputy sheriff Oscar Gonzales.

🗣 President Donald Trump defended his administration's response to the Hill Country floods during a visit to Kerr County on Friday. (Axios)

📉 The Houston region saw declining jobs in the first five months of 2025, but experts expect overall growth by the end of the year. (KHOU)

💰 Harris County Commissioner Tom Ramsey is pushing to secure partnerships to address a projected funding gap of over $1 billion for flood projects. (Houston Chronicle)

🌱 Swap seeds at West Gray Multiservice Center, in time to start thinking about the fall garden.

• 6:30pm Monday. Free.

🌮 Celebrate Taco Tuesday with $2 tacos at Gotti's.

• 4-11:30pm Tuesday, of course.

🍬 Craving sweets instead? Head to Cinnaholic for $2 Old Skool Rolls.

• On San Felipe Street. All day.

🚗 Admire cars or bring your own fancy one at First Service Credit Union's first car show.

• 7am Wednesday. Sign up here.

🎥 Check out local film at River Oaks Theatre's monthly Houston Filmmaker Showcase.

• 7pm Wednesday. $5.

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The hottest homes on the Houston housing market aren't the showiest — they're the ones buyers can still afford, Realtor.com finds.

Why it matters: In today's expensive market, fierce competition for cheaper homes is driving up their prices.

By the numbers: Median asking prices for colonial and traditional homes, some of the most affordable styles, jumped 5.6% in May from a year earlier nationwide.

• That's the biggest increase of any architectural style researchers analyzed.

Zoom in: Such homes remain one of the most affordable across Greater Houston, with median prices hovering around $390,000, per Realtor.com.

The bottom line: It pays to be modest.

The big picture