Axios Hill Leaders

October 21, 2025
Happy Monday! Tonight's newsletter is 876 words, 3.5 minutes.
- 💰 Dems erase GOP's edge
- 📲 Scoop: Ted Cruz's phone targeted
- 🏮 Exclusive: Trump's "indefinitely" stalled nominee
🚨 Scoop: A Chuck Schumer-led congressional delegation to Southeast Asia next month has been canceled, sources tell us.
- The Senate minority leader's CODEL was called off due to the logistics of a trip when the government might be shut down, sources told us. Many of the workers involved in planning are furloughed. — Stephen Neukam
1 big thing: 💰 Dems erase GOP's edge


Democrats out-fundraised Republicans last quarter in two-thirds of the "toss-up" House seats (per Cook Political Report) with an incumbent running for reelection next year, according to FEC filings.
Why it matters: Nearly every vulnerable Democratic and Republican incumbent raked in more than half a million dollars in the third quarter.
- But Democratic challengers are tapping into grassroots energy to blunt incumbents' edge in seats the GOP needs to hold.
- Third quarter fundraising hauls don't decide elections, but odd-numbered years are important for candidates building their campaign war chests.


The bottom line: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee reported $26.6 million in Q3 receipts, outpacing the National Republican Campaign Committee's $24 million haul.
- "Americans are tired of the disastrous GOP agenda of higher costs, broken promises, and tax breaks for billionaires. They're ready for change," DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton said in a statement.
- "House Democrats are broke, divided and out of gas," NRCC spokesperson Mike Marinella said.
— Kate Santaliz and Hans Nichols
2. 📲 Scoop: Ted Cruz's phone targeted
Sen. Ted Cruz's phone records were subpoenaed as part of then-special counsel Jack Smith's investigations into then-former President Trump, we have learned.
Why it matters: Congressional Republicans have demanded investigations over the news that former President Biden's Justice Department obtained and reviewed some lawmakers' call logs.
- Cruz's phone records were ultimately not analyzed as part of Smith's Jan. 6 Capitol attack investigation because AT&T did not comply with the subpoena, according to a source directly familiar with the situation.
Between the lines: The disclosure makes Cruz the ninth Republican senator for whom the Justice Department sought phone records, according to a subpoena copy we obtained.
- His inclusion was not previously known.
Zoom in: The newly reported subpoena requested records associated with Cruz's cellphone from Jan. 4-7, 2021.
- The document spells out the request for names, addresses, "detail records for inbound and outbound calls, text messages, direct connect and voicemail messages," among other information.
What he's saying: "Arctic Frost was the Biden administration's 21st-century digital Watergate," Cruz said in a statement to us.
- "They weaponized the DOJ and FBI to try to access records on me, President Trump, and other political opponents of the Democrat Party," Cruz said.
- "It was intentional, targeted political spying that likely went to the very highest levels of the administration — demonstrating utter contempt for the Constitution and separation of powers — and there should be the broadest possible investigations and accountability."
What to watch: The House Judiciary Committee last week called for Smith to testify before the panel.
- Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) has demanded answers from phone companies and called on Attorney General Pam Bondi to investigate.
The big picture: The increased scrutiny of Smith's actions comes as other critics and investigators of Trump have been recently targeted by the Justice Department.
- Smith investigated both Jan. 6 and Trump's misuse of classified documents.
- Trump's former national security adviser John Bolton was most recently indicted on charges related to mishandling classified documents.
- It follows indictments of New York Attorney General Letitia James, who prosecuted Trump, and former FBI Director James Comey.
— Stef Kight
3. 🏮 Exclusive: Trump's "indefinitely" stalled nominee
The White House paused the judicial nomination of former Florida Deputy Attorney General John Guard due to his involvement with a charity linked to Gov. Ron DeSantis that's under criminal investigation, sources tell Axios.
Why it matters: The White House wants to fill the open judicial seat in the Middle District of Florida, but the sources say the administration doesn't want the headache now that Guard has been subpoenaed.
- "The White House doesn't have any reason to really believe that John broke the law, but it doesn't want a nasty confirmation fight about this until it all gets cleared up," said a source with direct knowledge of the confirmation.
- Guard declined to comment.
Zoom in: The controversy stems from the diversion of $10 million in secret settlement money from a Medicaid provider that helped fund a DeSantis-controlled political committee in 2024 to kill a marijuana-legalization initiative.
- Guard signed the settlement but first privately raised concerns about it, according to emails obtained by The Miami Herald/Tampa Bay Times Florida Capitol Bureau.
- Florida House Republicans and independent observers allege the arrangement amounted to an illegal siphoning of Medicaid funds.
- Last week, the state attorney in Tallahassee convened a grand jury to investigate. DeSantis has denied wrongdoing.
What they're saying: Guard's nomination was abruptly halted when the investigation was announced and Guard was subpoenaed this month, the sources said.
- A source familiar with the situation said Guard's nomination will be "indefinitely" paused.
The bottom line: Insiders say Guard will still probably get confirmed if the investigation wraps up quickly.
- "Guard is still qualified and the White House wants to fill this spot," one of the sources said.
— Marc Caputo
This newsletter was edited by Justin Green and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.
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