Inside DeSantis' "made-for-TV" fall in Florida

• The charity received $10 million in secret settlement money from a Medicaid provider just days before the charity sent that same amount to two political groups favored by the DeSantises.
• House Republicans and independent observers allege that the arrangement amounted to an illegal siphoning of Medicaid funds.
• The governor has denied wrongdoing and accused fellow Republicans of a "bogus" political smear.

The big picture: The high-level Republican drama, dysfunction, name-calling and accusations in Tallahassee are likely to reverberate in next year's state elections.

• Polling suggests the scandal has hurt Casey DeSantis, who's been weighing a 2026 campaign to follow her term-limited husband as governor. Hope Florida was supposed to be central to her political platform.
• Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier, up for reelection next year, also has been accused of wrongdoing by other Republicans. He was Ron DeSantis' chief of staff last year and ran an anti-marijuana political group that may have benefited from the alleged Medicaid switcheroo.
• Uthmeier also denies wrongdoing and has accused a critic of being a stooge for the marijuana industry.

Zoom in: Ron DeSantis' stumble began with his failed presidential primary bid against Donald Trump last year. DeSantis' vindictive and pugilistic style of politics left him further isolated in the Florida Capitol.

• "Be careful how you treat people on the way up because you may encounter the same people on the way down," said Curt Anderson, veteran consultant and top adviser to DeSantis' predecessor, Rick Scott, who's now a U.S. senator and has had a strained relationship with the governor.
• "This is an amazing story," Anderson said. "... You see falls in politics, but not like this. It's stark. It's fast. It's a made-for-TV movie. Let's not forget: He was ahead of Trump in polling in 2022 and would've run against [President Biden or Vice President Harris] and won."

Whether DeSantis would have won the White House in 2024 is a question for the ages. Trump aside, the campaign exposed one of DeSantis's biggest weaknesses: his reluctance to build alliances and establish personal connections.

• "There was a time when every Republican in the nation wanted to have a beer with Ron DeSantis," said one Republican who still likes him. "The problem is that the governor didn't act like he wanted to have a beer with them, and it showed."

DeSantis had risen to Republican stardom with his laissez-faire approach to COVID restrictions in 2020 and 2021. Florida's Legislature kowtowed to him repeatedly.

• That came to a screeching halt this year, when DeSantis dragged lawmakers into a special session on immigration that many felt was needless political peacocking by the governor.
• DeSantis didn't get his way, thwarted largely by new House Speaker Daniel Perez, whose chamber has led the way in investigating Hope Florida.

• The multiple special sessions and acrimony in the state Capitol played a role in the Legislature's regular 60-day session not ending on time last Friday, despite Republicans holding super majorities in both the House and Senate.

The intrigue: The Hope Florida scandal's damage to Casey DeSantis was evident in a voter survey shared with Axios by a business group that examined the state of play in Florida politics:

• In January — before her charity was targeted by the House investigation — Casey DeSantis led U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds by 4 percentage points in a hypothetical matchup for governor. A recent survey had her trailing Donalds by 5 points — a 9-point swing.
• When voters were told that Donalds had been endorsed by President Trump, Donalds' lead jumped to 28 points in the survey.

Zoom out: Casey DeSantis still may run for governor, but people familiar with her thinking say the Hope Florida controversy has been a wake-up call.

• "She doesn't have the stomach or the temperament for this," said one Republican who has discussed a campaign with her.
• Another disagreed: "She has time. She's popular. The DeSantis brand is strong."
• "He's the most followed and accomplished governor in the country," DeSantis spokesman Bryan Griffin said, criticizing media coverage of "bogus intrigue."
• Ron DeSantis fumed about "bogus narratives" when he was heckled about Hope Florida at a recent news conference on the snapper fishing season.

What's next: Political observers and insiders aren't sure about DeSantis' future as he heads into his lame-duck year without the clear prospect of an appointment in Trump's administration that some allies have hoped for.

• "Ron DeSantis went from Rupert Murdoch and every Republican billionaire telling him he could be president to sniping at hecklers at a fish shack in Destin," said former Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz, a one-time DeSantis ally turned critic who now hosts a talk show on One America News Network.
• "It's quite a fall."